A PAS vice-president has indicated that Perikatan Nasional may not demand an equal share of seats from BN in the upcoming Malacca polls, due to a lack of confidence.
BN wants to defend 21 out of 28 seats in Malacca. However, an analysis by Malaysiakini and political scientists previously highlighted that PN and BN have equal strength in Malacca based on the results of the 15th general election, and as such should have a fair share of seats.
While official negotiations have not taken place, PAS vice-president Idris Ahmad said PN will likely contest five or six seats.
"We don't want to demand seats when it doesn't match our strengths. This aspect must be taken into account by PAS.
"We should not quarrel for seats; it should be based on our strengths," Idris (above) said in an interview with Berita Harian published today.
Commenting further, Idris said voters may vote differently at the state level than they did at the Parliament level, and that youth voters are especially unpredictable.
At present, BN's claim to 21 seats is based on the heavily skewed November 2021 state election, where low turnout of 65.8 percent hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic, allowed BN to capitalise on the first-past-the-post election system and win 75 percent of seats with just 38 percent of the votes.
However, after 195,000 voters were added to the electorate thanks to Undi18 and automatic voter registration, high turnout during the GE15 in November 2022 saw BN failing to win a single Parliament seat while PN and Pakatan Harapan each won three.
Vote share
A previous analysis by Malaysiakini showed that PN’s gains were driven by a groundswell of support among youth voters.
In terms of vote share during GE15, PN and BN are in close competition at 30.9 and 29.6 percent respectively.
A simulation of a state election based on the general election indicated PN would have won 10 seats, BN would have captured four and Harapan the remaining 14 seats.
These observations led to pundits opining that BN and PN should share Malacca seats equally instead of one dominating the other.
Idris' remarks, however, indicate a lack of confidence in these findings.
Differing views
The PAS leader’s views are in contrast with those of Wawasan Negara information chief Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal, who told Malaysiakini that seat distribution between BN and PN "should be as fair as possible", taking into account the support for PN during GE15.
However, he said he would leave the matter to the coalition's leadership to decide.
Other PN leaders Malaysiakini reached out to on this seat-share matter have not responded to requests for comment.
The Malacca polls are expected to be held soon, although the state legislature is only due to dissolve in December. - Mkini
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