‘Malay tsunami’ in Melaka polls a foregone conclusion?

 Another 'blue wave' is expected through BN-PN’s consolidation of Malay votes, potentially spelling more disappointment for PH after Sabah, Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls.

The BN-PN alliance, which swept to a two-thirds majority in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls, is expected to repeat its performance in the Melaka election today.

PETALING JAYA:

The people of Melaka go to the polls today for the state election, the results of which became a foregone conclusion for some after Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) confirmed their alliance.

The BN-PN alliance swept to a two-thirds majority in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls – the first major election to witness a united front between Umno and PAS, Malaysia’s two largest Malay-Muslim parties.

Analysts expect the pact between the coalitions led by the two parties to consolidate the Malay vote once again, especially in a state where BN already has a commanding presence.

While the 2021 Melaka polls produced slim victories in 13 of the 28 seats, similar outcomes are unlikely this time around, whether in Malay-majority seats or mixed seats with larger Malay electorates.

James Chin.

“The ‘Malay tsunami’ is coming. Wait for PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang to tell supporters to vote for BN,” James Chin of the University of Tasmania told FMT.

There was greater uncertainty over how the state election would pan out in the weeks leading up to nomination day on Oct 31, as BN kept its door open to talks with Pakatan Harapan (PH) despite initially stating its intention to continue its pact with PN.

This gave the Umno-led coalition greater bargaining power in seat negotiations with PN, which eventually relented, agreeing to contest just five seats while BN vies for 23.

PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari admitted this in a recent episode of the Keluar Sekejap podcast, saying PAS had learnt that taking an uncompromising position on seat allocations could push BN to work with PH.

Nonetheless, BN has not allowed its alliance with PN to make its narratives all about Malay interests.

It is understood that BN barred more “aggressive” PAS leaders from attending campaign events, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, reflecting an awareness of the need to maintain a moderate image in mixed seats.

Mixed seats with slight Malay majorities are among the key battlegrounds in this election, including those BN won in 2021 like Duyong, Pengkalan Batu, Gadek, Durian Tunggal, Paya Rumput and Kelebang.

PH-Bersatu pact lacks direction

Meanwhile, PH is contesting 24 seats and has reached an electoral understanding with its former component Bersatu, which is fielding seven candidates and will clash with PH in three seats.

The PH-Bersatu pact met internal opposition early on, with Melaka DAP chief Khoo Poay Tiong, among others, repeatedly insisting that the coalition should go solo, given Bersatu’s role in the collapse of the PH-led federal and Melaka governments in 2020.

This was a foretaste of the type of alliance PH and Bersatu would forge. There was a distinct lack of direction and commitment from both sides to their pact, whereas BN and PN appeared to deliver more organised messaging to voters, even launching a joint manifesto.

On the campaign trail, DAP, which provides PH’s strongest presence in Melaka, fell back to urging its support base of Chinese voters to come out in droves to vote against BN-PN, again warning of PAS’s religiously conservative agenda.

But its mega ceramahs no longer pulled the crowds it used to, and Chinese voters did not appear responsive to the tactics.

DAP, still reeling from shock defeats in the Negeri Sembilan, Johor and Sabah state elections, will want to retain at least the four Melaka seats it won in 2021, especially the mixed seat of Ayer Keroh, which has been identified as a must-win.

Amanah has tried to put up a show of confidence, with party president Mohamad Sabu saying it can win all seven seats it is contesting. However, pundits believe this is unlikely.

Of PH’s five seats, Bukit Katil, held by Amanah vice-president and former Melaka chief minister Adly Zahari, appears most likely to fall to BN-PN, as Malay voters make up 64.8% of the electorate there.

PKR, which is contesting 10 seats, has nothing to lose since it failed to win a single seat in 2021. However, defeats for candidates like Azman Abidin (Paya Rumput) and Farzana Hayani Nasir (Kelebang) would deal a heavy blow to the party.

Azman is a political secretary to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim while Farzana works in the Prime Minister’s Office. Defeats for them could be construed as a rejection of Anwar, who had urged voters to elect candidates with a “direct line” to him.

Bersatu, meanwhile, has had a muted two weeks of campaigning, with little help seen from PH despite their electoral understanding.

Syaza Shukri.

Analysts believe Bersatu is positioning itself to split the Malay votes in PH’s favour in key mixed-seat battlegrounds, although little success is expected for former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s party.

“Bersatu won’t have much impact. Malay votes will still be consolidated behind BN-PN,” said Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia. - FMT