Settlement of Najib’s fine could boost BN polls morale, say analysts

 Umno's grassroots are expected to appreciate the great effort by the party leadership to ensure the house arrest can take place.

Former prime minister Najib Razak was granted a conditional pardon under which he could serve a jail sentence under house arrest.

PETALING JAYA:

The settlement of the RM50 million fine on former prime minister Najib Razak, ensuring that he could finish the remainder of his jail sentence under house arrest, is likely to boost the morale of Barisan Nasional members, especially with the Melaka polls just a week away, according to an analyst.

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the Umno grassroots would be appreciative of the party leadership’s efforts to enable Najib to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest.

The party’s fund raising efforts via a solidarity fund was launched on Sept 18 after Najib was granted a conditional pardon.

“I think Umno grassroots, not only in Melaka but nationally, are happy that the party worked on this. It is a huge boost for BN and Umno in Melaka,” he said.

The development is seen by analyst Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting as a “blessing in disguise” for the party following the confidence and supply agreement signed between the government coalition and the opposition party Bersatu.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.

Umno’s efforts to help Najib could even motivate the party and BN to survive independently, without depending on other coalitions, Zaharuddin said.

“While the agreement may weaken BN’s bargaining power in Putrajaya, it could awaken something far more important at the grassroots level, that is, the instinct for political survival (on its own),” he said.

Umno settled the RM50 million fine imposed on Najib on Friday, clearing the way for him to serve the remainder of a jail sentence under house arrest.

However, the Attorney-General’s Chambers has called for the house arrest to be deferred until a review is conducted of the conditional pardon and the High Court order of discharge.

Trouble for Pakatan Harapan in Melaka

Zaharuddin said Pakatan Harapan (PH) would be in a dilemma as it faces a potentially demoralised voter base in Melaka, especially if Najib is placed under house arrest while the coalition leads the unity government.

He said PH had made many compromises on its reform pledges to secure enough parliamentary support to stay in power, especially when it started working with former arch-nemesis BN.

“The greatest danger for PH may not be that of voters suddenly switching to BN or PN. It could be something much quieter but equally devastating — political fatigue, declining enthusiasm and supporters choosing to stay home.

“An angry voter may still be persuaded, but an indifferent voter is far more difficult to mobilise,” he said.

According to Zaharuddin, such feelings are particularly relevant among younger and urban voters who once regarded PH as the vehicle for political reforms.

However, he also cautioned against assuming Melaka PH supporters will automatically punish the coalition on the ballot come Nov 14.

“It very much depends on whether Anwar can demonstrate that the (house arrest) arrangement accelerates institutional reforms and improves governance,” he added.

A weapon for Bersama?

Azmi said Bersama could use the issue to attack DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook, who had promised to resign as transport minister when the house arrest takes place.

Zaharuddin agreed, saying that Bersama could argue to PH supporters that the coalition has become so obsessed with consolidating power in Putrajaya that it is increasingly willing to sacrifice its political principles.

“Bersama’s greatest opportunity is not simply to convince voters that PH has failed. It is to persuade politically disillusioned voters that they have another credible choice,” he added. - FMT