NIGHTMARE SCENARIO : WAR WITH NORTH KOREA

Here is a nightmare scenario for a North Korean conflict  (Thank you to the reader):

Estimate one million casualties on US-South Korea Side of a Korean War 

April 20, 2017

credible scenario : North Korea could inflict 1 million casualties on South Korea 

possibly land missiles into Japan if North Korea inflict maximum damage 

South Korea and USA can beat down and contain North Korea. 

situation would transition into prolonged Iraq-Afghanistan. 

North Korea has thousands of tons of chemical weapons.

US able to strike and rapidly cripple medium and long range missile launch sites

 

US could degrade North Korean missile and nuclear weapons within few days. 

US able to dismantle North Korean air force, air defenses over two weeks
South Korea and US able to take out any regular tanks and artillery within a month.

uncertainty if North Korea would embed 100,000 commandos into Seoul 

protracted urban warfare situation

North has tunnels and large military force 

use IEDs and other guerilla tactics to make long term mess of North Korea. 

refugee and starvation situation in the aftermath.

North Korea might have a dozen small nuclear weapons. 

North has a lot more chemical weapons.

North stockpile of between 2,500 and 5,000 metric tons of chemical weapons. 

Annual production 4,500 tons in peacetime and 12,000 tons in wartime.

North has highly lethal nerve agents sarin, soman, tabun, VM, VX
specialized in “sulfur mustard, chlorine, phosgene, sarin and the V-agents.”

Chinese border to southern tip of South Korea is less than 500 miles

Pyongyang to DMZ is 100 hundred miles and 120 miles to Seoul.

North has 5,100 multiple rocket launchers 

4,400 self-propelled artillery pieces. 

North Korean Air Force aging, less likely to get through defenses 

My comments : Even if 10% of this frightening scenario were to happen that will be unacceptable. Plus these are not Arabs who are involved. 

I think China will play a larger role in defusing this conflict.  The psychopathic Kim Jong Un has to go. Unless the doctor's can prescribe better medication for him.

More than 75% of North Korea's fuel is supplied by China. About the same or higher figures apply for North Korea's trade.  China has a stranglehold on North Korea. 

I also believe that China has (since 1954) fully penetrated North Korea's defense and administrative machinery.  They possibly have spies and espionage capacity everywhere inside North Korea. 

China will not agree for the US to 'overcome' North Korea.  That will bring US troops right to the Chinese border.

Mr Trump has to cut a doable deal with China.  Or just wait for North Korea to collapse on itself.  

War is not an option.