GE15 | Set along the Straits of Johor, stormy weather and flash floods have made a bigger splash than the initial week of the 15th general election campaign in five seats Pakatan Harapan won in 2018 - Johor Bahru, Pulai, Iskandar Puteri, Tebrau and Pasir Gudang - which make up Johor’s Southern Belt.
This had set the scene for what was described by Harapan’s main rivals from BN as a “calm election” that could work in their favour, if they can hold on to the momentum from the Johor state polls when the coalition reaffirmed its position as the state government.
Harapan leaders, as well as incumbents in southern Johor, however, believe that a stronger wave on the strength of the “political tsunami” that took down the state in GE14, along with 18 out of 26 parliamentary seats, has risen in the run-up to polling day tomorrow (Saturday).
A Harapan ‘Mega Ceramah’ headlined by PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli in Johor Bahru on Wednesday night saw a crowd of over 1,000 people, just a day after PKR president Anwar Ibrahim rallied thousands of supporters in Batu, Kuala Lumpur.
In his speech that night, Amanah deputy president Salahuddin Ayub said the euphoria for Anwar in the national capital will arrive in Johor along, with returning voters, many of whom did not come back to vote in the March state election.
“The turnout for tonight in Johor Bahru is outstanding. I want to tell all of you that Malaysians have once again formed a wave that gives us in Harapan confidence.
“We can see the Jelajah Pakatan Harapan (campaign tour) led by Anwar. In Kuala Lumpur people are saying it was like a ‘mass hysteria’ that welcomed Anwar. What does that mean?
“We believe that the people will give Anwar the chance to be the next prime minister,” said the Johor Harapan chief.
Even without Anwar’s presence, supporters gathered at the venue cheered at every mention of the Harapan chief as prime minister, while others jeered when similar references were made to Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
‘Cool’ campaign now heating up
Salahuddin is defending Pulai in his third battle with Johor BN deputy chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed, making it the most high-profile contest in southern Johor. Also running for Pulai is Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Loh Kah Yong from Gerakan.
“To be very frank, of course as an incumbent I was here before GE15. A few months before the election, everything seemed ‘cool’. We didn't see any wave, there was no movement when we mingled, even up until the start of this campaign,” Salahuddin told Malaysiakini in an interview earlier on Wednesday.
“It’s not that bad to the point they rejected me lah, but the response was not ‘warm’, they just smiled and all that.
“But then, after a few days, I saw how the Chinese voters, among 41 percent in Pulai, have started shouting support for me, asking to take photos with me.
“And so I am quite confident the level of Chinese and Indian support is back as to how I felt in GE14,” Salahuddin added.
As for the larger segment of Malay voters, Salahuddin said Harapan only required an additional 15 percent from among former BN voters, on top of the parties’ existing supporters and “fence sitters” - many who will be first-time voters.
“The number of votes that Harapan received during the Johor election, that is the number of votes we will continue to get. You add on a voter turnout of more than 70 percent and we will certainly win.
“We can win in all the seats that we won in 2018, with the addition of several others like Ayer Hitam,” he said.
Salahuddin’s expectations are not unfounded.
While appearing to have made a huge rebound, BN actually received around 43 percent of the popular vote during the March state election.
And while the total number of voters in the state election - around 1.5 million - is about the same as during 2018, the turnout was poorer in the southern belt.
An overall glance at voting results suggested that compared to 2018, there were about 14,000 fewer voters in Johor Bahru and Pulai each, while the number of voters in Pasir Gudang decreased by around 1,000.
This is despite there being almost twice as many registered voters in these three parliamentary constituencies - who either registered after 2018 or were automatically added to the electoral roll after the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration at the end of 2021.
‘No clear villain’
Unlike in GE14, when Harapan had taken down BN on a campaign largely targeted at former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s 1MDB scandal, this time, Harapan Johor Bahru incumbent Akmal Nasir said there is no “one villain” in the minds of voters.
Therefore, he said, questions on the country’s future under the next prime minister have become a key consideration, aside from the candidates’ abilities to address local issues in Johor Bahru and surrounding areas.
“For example, you may agree or disagree, but I can sense there are people saying they are not just deciding on whether to give the mandate to me or not, but they are thinking about who can be the best person to lead the country.
“I met one group who are not from my party - and they said that in this election, they will give a chance to Anwar,” Akmal said during an interview on Tuesday.
On the ground, Akmal said Harapan incumbents have capitalised on their positions to hold more targeted campaigns as opposed to mass messaging or large-scale events.
At the same time, he admitted that there are limitations to gauging the level of support from outstation voters.
“It is not as straightforward as in 2018, where basically you could come up with your villain quite easily.
“In this election, it requires a more sophisticated approach or argument to be able to relate to as many groups or segments in society. There will be no single issue that can win you the election,” said the former PKR Youth chief.
Different national issues at play
Leaders in Johor BN believe this change is working to their advantage.
Present in support of BN’s Nur Jazlan at a gathering hosted by the Johor Youth Council on Tuesday night, Pulai MCA chief Wong You Fong said there are different national issues at play now, compared with the 14th general election 2018, which saw a massive swing of non-Malay support towards Harapan, including in Johor.
“Now we feel the support is better than in 2018, but of course, we can’t predict the result. At that time, the feeling was different.
“This time there are many undecided voters and all political parties are trying to guess how they will vote,” said Wong, who was the former Johor Wanita MCA chief.
Addressing the youth, Nur Jazlan urged them to think of the country's future, particularly to compare current developments in Johor with neighbouring Singapore, where thousands are seeking better opportunities across the causeway.
Nur Jazlan, the former three-term Pulai MP, is the oldest of BN’s candidates in southern Johor, which this time also features two political greenhorns, 42-year-old architect Johan Ropi in Johor Bahru and 37-year-old Noor Azleen Ambros in Pasir Gudang.
Salahuddin and others on Harapan’s campaign trail had attributed the coalition’s expectations to retain its non-Malay supporters and gain additional Malay votes to, among others, a rejection of any possibility for Zahid to rise as prime minister, a narrative also played up by PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin.
He also said the individual strengths of a candidate would play a lesser role in influencing voters’ decisions in an election where there are bigger national factors at stake.
On the other hand, Johor BN leaders campaigning on a “political stability” platform have presented their visions whereby the state government is aligned with a BN-led federal government under Caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s leadership. - Mkini
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