BN leaders batten down hatches as Harapan, PN storm strongholds

 

GE15 | Prior to the 15th general election, BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his supporters brimmed with confidence as they pushed aggressively for Parliament to be dissolved.

However, the campaign period thus far has mostly seen BN going on the defensive with their top leaders, including Zahid and coalition poster boy Ismail Sabri Yaakob, focusing more on holding on to their own seats.

Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan's Anwar Ibrahim and Perikatan Nasional's Muhyiddin Yassin have been touring the country to whip up support in their quest to deny BN another election victory.

For Ismail Sabri - who is BN's declared prime minister candidate - the past 10 days of campaigning appear to have mostly been spent in Bera - which he won in 2018 with just 43.9 percent of votes cast.

He has only ventured out of Bera twice. The first outing was a double visit to Ayer Hitam, Johor and then Alor Gajah, Malacca, where he stumped for MCA chief Wee Ka Siong and Umno information chief Shahril Hamdan.

Ismail Sabri Yaakob with Sarawak leaders this morning

His second time leaving Bera to campaign is today - spending his morning in Sarawak in a bid to secure support from the ruling state coalition GPS, before heading off to Putrajaya to stump for Tengku Adnan Mansor.

He will also be campaigning for Khairy Jamaluddin in Sungai Buloh, and Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz in Kuala Selangor.

This is in stark contrast to Najib Abdul Razak who, as caretaker prime minister during the 2018 polls, actively campaigned throughout the country, covering at least seven states in the first 10 days of campaigning.

Najib, who at the time was under heavy scrutiny due to the 1MDB scandal, fought fire with fire by going on the offensive during that year’s campaign.

Ismail Sabri, meanwhile, has mostly been preoccupied almost daily in the current campaign with trying to convince people that he is indeed BN's prime minister candidate and not Zahid as claimed by some.

However, a recent development appears to further undermine Ismail Sabri while strengthening speculation that Zahid is trying to make a power play for Putrajaya.

The BN chief had admitted to reporters last night that he offered Anifah Aman the foreign ministry portfolio should BN come to power. Cabinet appointments are the prime minister's prerogative.

Guarding own turf

Like Ismail Sabri, Zahid, too, has been busy firefighting in the campaign period and has spent most of his time guarding his own turf.

The Umno president won Bagan Datuk in 2018 with 51.4 percent of votes in a three-cornered fight.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi meeting voters in Hutan Melintang in Perak

However, unlike past elections, Zahid is no longer facing third-tier candidates, with Harapan fielding giant killer Shamsul Iskandar Md Akin to scalp the BN chief.

Zahid has only been spotted campaigning outside Bagan Datuk on three days from Nov 9 to Nov 11, with stops at Sabak Bernam and Sungai Besar which is less than an hour's drive from his home base, before moving on to Tangga Batu and Masjid Tanah in Malacca, with one stop at Titiwangsa, Kuala Lumpur before making his way home.

For Zahid, this is not a significant departure from his campaigning methods while he was deputy prime minister during the 2018 polls - where he also spent most of his time during the campaign period in Bagan Datuk.

Other top BN leaders who - based on news coverage and social media - appear to have spent almost all their time in the past 10 days hunkering down in their own constituencies are BN deputy chief Mohamad Hasan (Rembau) and MIC president SA Vigneswaran (Sungai Siput).

Meanwhile, MCA president Wee - who caught flak for campaigning in Ayer Hitam while LRT services stalled in the Klang Valley - has been the most outgoing BN leader, campaigning for MCA candidates in Johor, Kuala Lumpur, Pahang, and Malacca.

However, this pales in comparison to Harapan leaders like Anwar, Rafizi Ramli, Anthony Loke, and Mohamad Sabu.

Anwar - who is Harapan's prime minister candidate - is jet-setting across the country to build up support for the coalition.

The only area he has not spent time in during the past 10 days is the Klang Valley - with whirlwind tours across several states almost daily while still squeezing in time to cover Tambun - where he is contesting - as well as other Perak seats.

Anwar Ibrahim greeting supporters in Kedah

Likewise, PN's premier candidate Muhyiddin has also been campaigning up and down the country, with stops in Perak, Pahang, Perlis, Kedah, and Selangor besides campaigning in his home state Johor.

Meanwhile, BN's campaign also appears to be lacking in other ways.

Malaysiakini's observation of the flag wars found that despite being the party that triggered an early election, BN only started putting up flags and banners in many areas two or three days after campaigning started.

Malaysiakini also observed that BN was not putting up too much material, such as banners featuring candidates, in areas that are Harapan strongholds.

PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli claimed during a ceramah in Ledang on Thursday that this is because BN's local warlords are trying to avoid wasting money on lost causes.

Different mood

All these factors are a far cry from the confidence BN exuded for GE15 after its major victories in the Malacca and Johor polls.

However, a review of election results in both states showed that BN won in both states with less than 50 percent of popular support.

In Johor in particular, data suggests that while new voters came out to vote, many Harapan supporters did not and in many seats, the number of votes cast was lower in the March election, compared to in 2018.

The mood now, however, is significantly different.

Voters in Johor have informed Malaysiakini that relatives and friends who are outstation will return to vote this time around - as will those living in the state who chose to stay at home in March.

Likewise, in a survey of first-time voters aged 18 to 30, commissioned by Malaysiakini through research company Vase.ai, 93 percent of the 1,084 respondents polled said they intend to vote.

With Johor serving as a bellwether, Harapan is expecting a higher turnout in this election to work in their favour.

Rafizi - using his analytics firm Invoke to predict the election outcome - claimed the most likely scenario, for now, is a hung Parliament.

He expects Harapan to win the most seats, followed by BN, with PN trailing behind.

However, much of this may depend on the weather.

As had been warned prior to the dissolution of Parliament, many states are experiencing heavy rain daily after the monsoon season began earlier.

Floods are also being reported daily - with 2,914 people in six states forced out of their homes as of 12pm today according to the National Disaster Management Agency.

BN leaders who were adamant on early polls had been dismissive of the impact of floods coinciding with the general election, with Zahid saying that the caretaker government can still manage the situation.

If a flood occurs during voting on Saturday, the Election Commission can suspend polling on a case-by-case basis.

The weather is already having some impact on Harapan, where the turnout for their mega ceramahs has not reached the scale it did back in 2018.

However, they often streamed such events on social media - a medium more have become familiar with since the last general election. - Mkini