Fate of coalitions hinges on how Malay votes go, say analysts

 

An analyst says if the Malay votes go wrong for the coalitions, BN will be weakened considerably while PN may sink into oblivion and GTA wiped out.

PETALING JAYA: Analysts see troubled waters for Malay-based parties Bersatu and Pejuang in the general election as the Malay votes have become unpredictable.

They say the Pejuang-led Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) may even end up losing all the seats it held, including the Langkawi and Jerlun constituencies, which Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son, Mukhriz, are defending.

As for Barisan Nasional, they say it has to get at least 65% of the Malay votes to win a respectable number of seats, while Pakatan Harapan has to raise its percentage to at least 30% if it wants to be in pole position to form the next government.

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the fate of the parties individually, and the coalitions as a whole, hangs on the Malay votes.

“If BN fails to get at least 65% of the Malay votes, it will be in serious trouble and may lose quite a number of its strongholds. If it manages to get this percentage, it’s in a good position to capture 75 to 80 seats in the Peninsula.

“And if it manages to lure about 20% to 30% of the non-Malay votes from PH, it can win another 50 seats and form the government easily. Anything less than these targets will see BN struggling to form a strong and stable government,” he told FMT.

As for PN, Azmi thinks it is going to be an uphill task for the Bersatu-led coalition, adding that if it gets the least percentage of the Malay votes, it will be in trouble.

Based on statistics from the Melaka and Johor state elections, it is set to struggle if the pattern continues in GE15, he said.

“If they cannot get enough Malay votes, which form the bulk of BN voters, it is going to be a formidable task for PN to win seats. There is a likelihood of PN not winning any seat if the Malay voters turn away from them,” he said.

Azmi said PH needs at least 30% of the Malay votes to win an estimated 100 to 112 seats. He said it can easily form the government as the Sabah and Sarawak parties will most likely align with the party or coalition that wins the most number of seats so that the federal government can be strong and stable.

“However, there’s a caveat here. PH must retain at least 70% of the non-Malay votes it got previously if it wants to be in a position to form the next government,” he said.

James Chin.

As for GTA, Azmi said it can only survive with Malay votes, and that it is likely to get a maximum of two seats – Langkawi and Jerlun. “But they might even lose these two seats if the Malay votes go wrong for them,” he said.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said if the Malay voters snub BN, the coalition could break up.

“There will be no reason for MIC and MCA to remain in BN if this happens. (But) I don’t expect it to happen,” he said.

Chin said the signs in PN are “clear that the only engine that’s working in the coalition is PAS as Bersatu has no traction”.

“I expect Gerakan (the other PN component) to lose all the seats it is contesting. PN is basically run by PAS for (its own) benefit. PN should change the colour of its logo from dark blue to green.

“GTA will be the worst off and can get anywhere between zero and five seats. Its iconic figure, Mahathir, is under threat in Langkawi. It will not have any traction as it is made up of the wrong Malay parties.

“One of the greatest mysteries in GE15 is why Mahathir hooked up with all these strange groups. This is doing his reputation and legacy no good. The simplest explanation is that he is desperate,” he said. - FMT