Will Muhyiddin Yassin Be The Next PM? What If PH Teams Up With BN? Will The Chinese Go Ballistic? What If PKR Splits from DAP To Team Up With BN And PAS? What If? What if?

 Well that survey by the Merdeka Center on the expected outcome of the GE15 has gone super viral today (Sunday 13 Nov, 2022).

Lets just snapshot some of it.

Above : Overall among all races Zahid is dead. So are Hadi, Dr M and Anwar. Muhyiddin has the highest ovrall popularity at 49% ??

Below: Then among Malays, the numbers get worse for Zahid, Hadi, Anwar and Dr M. Muhyiddin comes out tops with 64% popularity. Anwar's popularity among Malays is only 29% while Zahid's is 13%. 

Among Malays, Muhyiddin is twice as popular as Anwar.

By ethnicity, the winner of the Malay support is PN (Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan under the leadership of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin).  46% of Malays support PN. BN gets 32% Malay support while PH gets only 20% Malay support. Compared to PH, the PN gets more than twice the Malay support.

 

Below here is an estimation of how each party and coalition will perform - Peninsular plus Sabah & Sarawak.

So the BN is going to be wiped out on the Penonsular. UMNO may win only 24 Parliamentary seats in the Semenanjung.  

PH will win big ie 91 seats on the Peninsular with DAP winning 34 and PKR winning 41. I disagree with this part. I think the DAP will perform much better. PKR may not.  

But none of either BN, PH or PN can form the government by themselves. This is very likely. Do read on.

So who shall be the kingmaker? 

Can GPS in Sarawak be the kingmaker? Can the GPS work with PH? I doubt it. They dislike the DAP AND they dislike PKR.

GPS will not like PAS either (Pas is in PN).  But GPS can work with Bersatu.

PN may not cooperate with BN because Bersatu (Muhyiddin) and UMNO (Zahid)  are an impossible combination.  

Can PH (DAP, PKR, Amanah, Muda etc) work with BN? The Chinese voters who voted for DAP/PH will go ballistic. So will Indians who voted for PKR/PH. Chinese and Indian MPs in DAP and PKR may be up in arms against cooperating with BN/UMNO.

What if PKR, UMNO and PAS get together? They will still not have enough seats to form the government.

Looks like it is going to be a hung Parliament.

Even if someone can cobble together a government after GE15, will it last? Or will there be another Sheraton or Hilton or Shangri La Move? A new PM every 12 months?

The anti-hopping law? It is the dumbest law. What if the entire party decides to hop? That is NOT hopping.  Lets say the YDP Agong makes a headcount of MPs to determine who shall be prime minister. Then suddenly ALL the UMNO MPs (or a substantial number of them) say 'We support Anwar Ibrahim from PKR to be PM'. 

That is not party hopping. They are still UMNO MPs but they support Anwar as PM. 

What if PAS joins in? All the PAS MPs say, 'we too support Anwar Ibrahim'. 

No one has hopped from any party. They all remain in their party but they support a candidate from another party to be PM.  It is called " C O A L I T I O N" building.

What if Zahid loses? 

What if Anwar loses?

Tambun has a 15.7% margin of winning for Anwar. Not too great.

Bagan Datuk has an even slimmer margin, only 4.8% margin of winning for Zahid.

Fancy numbers to stir up endless speculation. We have five more days.

 The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.