Warisan’s all-Sabahan pact idea good on paper but unlikely, say analysts

 

Warisan’s Shafie Apdal has ruled out an alliance with parties that had previously poached its assemblymen, an obvious reference to Sabah chief minister Hajiji Noor’s Gagasan Rakyat Sabah.

PETALING JAYA: 

Warisan’s dream of an all-Sabahan electoral alliance at the next state polls with other local parties is unlikely to materialise, two political analysts said.

The two pundits said that, on paper, Warisan could form a formidable alliance with Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), both presently part of the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition, and even Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM).

However, they do not expect any of these parties to break away from GRS after Warisan president Shafie Apdal ruled out the possibility of working with Hajiji Noor’s Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah.

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs expects STAR and PBS to stick with GRS for the state election given the coalition already leads the present state government, which allows access to greater resources and machinery.

“In principle, they complement each other, but such a coalition going into the election is unlikely,” he told FMT, adding that other “mosquito parties” have nothing to offer Warisan.

“But how they will behave after winning seats is anybody’s guess,” he added.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Lee Kuok Tiung said Warisan enjoys strong support in Sabah’s east coast, while PBS and STAR had substantial backing among the Kadazandusun, Murut and Rungus communities in the western region and interiors.

On the other hand, he said, Peter Anthony’s KDM, while only just over two years old, had shown promise in areas with significant Murut and Rungus populations.

However, Lee said, despite their distinct strongholds that complemented each other, omitting Gagasan Rakyat  would leave such a coalition at a disadvantage as the party was a “significant player” in the state.

“Gagasan Rakyat is the anchor party of GRS and holds considerable influence and resources. Excluding it from a grand coalition at the last minute might limit the alliance’s overall reach and effectiveness,” he said.

He also cited PBS and STAR’s memorandum of understanding earlier this year to bolster their collaboration under GRS. This was seen as significant after the two parties clashed in the 2020 polls despite being allies.

Lee said this agreement underscored their commitment to GRS and consolidated their positions within the coalition’s framework, deterring them from seeking new alliances.

“The likelihood of an all-Sabahan alliance comprising Warisan, PBS, STAR and KDM in the upcoming state election appears low.”

Warisan has said that it will work with local parties for the Sabah polls, but only if they are bold enough to prevent subservience to national parties such as Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan.

Its information chief Azis Jamman said Warisan would go solo in the state election if local parties were not courageous enough to take such a stand.

Earlier, Shafie ruled out Warisan working with parties that had previously poached its assemblymen, an obvious reference to Hajiji’s Gagasan Rakyat.

Eleven Warisan assemblymen, who were elected in the 2020 state polls, quit the party to join Gagasan Rakyat.

The GRS coalition consists of Gagasan Rakyat and seven other local parties, including PBS and STAR. PBS and STAR did not take in any of the defecting Warisan assemblymen.

Lee said sticking with Hajiji’s coalition would augur well for both PBS and STAR due to its greater access to resources, though it would come at a cost.

As GRS is courting PH for the state polls, he said, this would inevitably force PBS and STAR to give up some traditional seats to the West Malaysia-based coalition, particularly in urban areas.

“However, this can be assuaged by appointing them as assemblymen or senators or giving them posts in government-linked companies,” he said. - FMT