JOHOR POLLS | Bersatu faces an uphill challenge in Bukit Pasir - one of two state seats in Pagoh - famed for its furniture factories and fertile agriculture.
On paper, despite losing Bukit Pasir to BN in the last state election, with enough turnout, Bersatu could bag the seat.
This is evidenced by analysing the 15th general election voting data, where the number of BN supporters dropped by over 800 compared to the March 2022 state election.
In contrast, Perikatan Nasional almost doubled the number of votes from 5,850 in March to over 11,200, taking the lead with 45 percent of the votes.
An analysis of past voting patterns and conversations with local politicians indicates that of the 5,850 that PN bagged in the last state election, about 800 are PAS supporters - coinciding with the number of Islamist party members in the seat.
The remaining 5,000 are believed to be supporters of long-time Pagoh MP Muhyiddin Yassin, who resides in Bukit Pasir.
The challenge now is whether Bersatu can motivate the remaining 6,000-plus PN supporters to come back and vote for its candidate, Idzharruddin Nasirruddin.
Ability to mobilise supporters
Despite PAS' relatively small size in Bukit Pasir, the Islamist party as a whole is known for its machinery and ability to mobilise supporters.
It had become a sore point in PAS' relationship with Bersatu, with the former saying the latter always depended on its machinery.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said on Friday that PAS will not mobilise for Bersatu in Johor. However, the party is expected to hold further discussions on Monday on whether to support their PN counterpart.
Despite enmity at the top, former Johor menteri besar Sahruddin Jamal - who is defending the neighbouring Bukit Kepong state seat for a third term - said he is confident that Bersatu and PAS' relationship in Pagoh is solid.
Besides getting voters to come out, another challenge for Bersatu is the Pakatan Harapan candidate, army veteran Najib Lep.
Najib had won the seat for PAS in 2018, capitalising on an anti-BN wave and the fact that Bersatu's candidate for Bukit Pasir that year was disqualified due to insolvency.
Then in March 2022, after being dropped as a candidate, he contested as an independent and bagged 1,860 votes or 9.9 percent of ballots, just 2.6 percentage points shy of keeping his deposit.
Amanah has since recruited Najib.
Harapan's source of strength in Bukit Pasir has been its non-Malay voters, who were 38 percent of the electorate in 2022.
During GE15, Harapan secured 34 percent of the votes in Bukit Pasir, coming in second place.
BN - who only secured 20.75 percent of votes here in GE15 - is fielding Bukit Pasir incumbent Fazli Salleh in the three-cornered fight.
- Mkini
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