Analysts predict mixed outcomes for Umno, BN if Najib is pardoned

 They say a pardon for the former prime minister could boost Umno’s grassroots morale, but hurt BN’s image among voters.

Former prime minister Najib Razak was sentenced to 12 years’ jail and fined RM210 million in the SRC International case. The FTPB later halved his prison term to six years and reduced the fine to RM50 million.

PETALING JAYA:

A pardon for imprisoned former prime minister Najib Razak could deliver mixed results for Umno and Barisan Nasional, say political analysts.

An FMT report today said the Federal Territories Pardons Board is expected to meet on Sept 11 to consider several matters, including Najib’s application for a pardon over convictions linked to the 1MDB scandal.

Speaking to FMT, analysts Azmi Hassan, Mazlan Ali and Tawfik Yaakub said a pardon would boost Umno’s grassroots morale, particularly among supporters who believe Najib was politically persecuted.

Azmi, of Akademi Nusantara, said Najib’s return would inject new energy into Umno, especially ahead of the next general election, and give Umno leaders who had championed the issue some relief.

“It would be easier for Umno’s top leaders to say they have done their best, and this is the outcome,” he said.

Tawfik, of Universiti Malaya, said Najib could become a campaign asset for BN in reaching parts of the Malay electorate, while Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan said many Malay voters still viewed Najib as a leader who had contributed significantly to the country despite his incarceration and ongoing court cases.

Mazlan said this support was evident in July’s Johor election, where PH’s attempts to use Najib’s pardon against BN helped the coalition secure a resounding victory.

“A pardon would create momentum for greater Malay support for BN and help unify Umno, which has been somewhat divided since its defeat in the 2022 general election,” he said.

‘Not a total win for BN’

However, the analysts warned that a pardon for Najib, who was convicted in the SRC International case linked to the 1MDB scandal, could undermine BN’s efforts to rebuild its image.

Tawfik said PH would likely use the issue to revive the 1MDB scandal and attack BN, potentially costing it support among non-Malay and urban voters as well as fence-sitters.

Mazlan said Najib’s other pending cases could also pose a problem for BN.

“What if he is found guilty in another case and imprisoned again? That will not be a good image for BN as people will talk about his cases again,” he said.

‘PH also has much to lose’

Mazlan and Tawfik said PH could use Najib’s pardon to attack BN and reinforce its anti-graft and Reformasi narratives.

However, Tawfik said PH could also face a backlash if voters mistakenly attribute the board’s decision to the coalition.

“Some reform-minded voters might question why this is happening when PH is in government, creating frustration or a loss of trust among its core supporters,” he said.

He said a hardline attack on Najib could further strain ties between PH and Umno.

Azmi said many PH supporters opposed a full pardon or house arrest for Najib.

“If he is given a full pardon, PH supporters will accuse Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of not doing enough to ensure Najib serves his full sentence,” he said.

Azmi and Mazlan also warned that a Najib-energised Umno could pose a greater challenge to PH in the Melaka elections and the next general election.

“Najib could boost support for BN and create a bigger challenge for PH,” Mazlan said. - FMT