12 questions that will be answered on polling day

 

As the general election campaign moves into the last week, it remains difficult to predict the outcome. Pundits talk about a decline in support for Umno, some even saying Umno is disintegrating. Others say Perikatan Nasional is filling the void in the Malay heartlands. Still others say Pakatan Harapan will be able to pull it off with a narrow win.

However, even with the limited polling available in the public domain, and the added complexity caused by multi-cornered contests, it’s just too difficult to accurately predict what the results will be, come Nov 19.

Most people rely upon anecdotal information, and convincing articles within WhatsApp groups to form their opinions.

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GE15 is the most complex in Malaysia’s history. Consequently, there are a number of unknowns that will influence the final result. However, we won’t understand the significance of these factors until the results actually come in.

Some of the most important factors:

1.Who would be prime minister if Barisan Nasional wins?

This could be a major factor. Many voters want Umno, but don’t want Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to become prime minister, and are skeptical about whether Ismail Sabri Yaakob could return as prime minister if BN won.

This could be a major factor that splits the Malay vote in the heartland seats. This would give the advantage to Bersatu and PAS.

Some believe that Zahid forced the election to avoid being tried on further criminal charges. Reports indicate that disgruntled Umno supporters in Zahid’s seat of Bagan Datuk are actually campaigning against Zahid. How much will moral outrage be an issue?

2. The Najib factor

Before the campaign began, many pundits believed that Najib Razak would play a major role in the election campaign, even from his jail cell. This may have failed to materialise to the extent many believed. However, Najib’s Facebook page with 4.6 million followers is still extremely active with campaign material.

3. The youth vote

Many pundits believe the youth vote will be a game-changer. That factor failed to materialise in the Johor state elections earlier this year. Some believe that Muda has some claim upon the youth vote, which is yet to be proven. Most of the interaction between political candidates and Malaysia’s youth is occurring via social media.

Some say the young will come out and reject outright corruption and racism and be a massive game-changer. Others believe the youth will follow their parents’ voting habits, and some believe the youth are uninterested and will not turn out in large numbers to vote.

4. The effect of the floods

Unfortunately, low pressure weather systems are descending upon Malaysia and causing rain and flooding. This has halted some campaigning to date. At the beginning of the campaign people on social media labelled the election #Undibanjir, to vent their anger at Umno for calling the election at the onset of the monsoon season.

However, the actual effects may be much more complex. Low turnouts may favour the current government. If floods occur, the ballot box may actually be a way for people to vent their anger at the government. Political parties can also use the floods to their advantage through giving aid directly to residents affected by floods.

There is no doubt this will disrupt the election greatly, and may favour who had previously held the seat, as it dampens the campaigns of challengers.

Really bad floods over the next few days could force an emergency with a postponement of voting.

5. The Anwar-Rafizi relationship

Some claim there is a rift in the relationship between Anwar Ibrahim and Rafizi Ramli, while party supporters jump up quickly to say there are only disagreements. They further claim this is healthy within a political party. However, some campaign decisions have been a disaster. Just look at Sungai Buloh. Can Pakatan Harapan afford to give away such seats?

6. Voter apathy and turnout

The public have taken a lacklustre interest in the campaign to date, with only one week to go. This points to a potential low voter turnout on November 19, although there is early voting.

Both Melaka and Johor state elections had low voter turnouts which favoured the incumbent government.

7. Success without party branding?

An unprecedented number of candidates have changed political parties and are seeking re-election under another banner. One example is Shahidan Kassim, a former long-time Umno warlord, who is defending his seat of Arau in Perlis, under the PN banner. There are many more.

The major question here is, are these candidates bigger than their former party branding? If that is the case, a large number of seats will change party hands on Nov 19, but have the same MP.

8. How influential is the issue of corruption?

At the beginning of the campaign, corruption was portrayed by PH as the major issue. One of the major arguments going around chat groups, is the government be changed because of the support of kleptocracy.

However, it’s been realised that the issue of corruption is only preaching to those already converted. Playing the corruption card doesn’t win new voters. Certainly, corruption as an issue within the Malay heartlands doesn’t carry much traction. The 1MDB issue is too complex, and many see the conviction of Najib as a wrap-up of the case.

Bersatu has reframed the issue and is presenting themselves as ‘honest brokers’ in a new government, not tainted with the level of corruption as other candidates. They are trying to differentiate themselves from Umno and PAS. The election results will show how effective this strategy has been from Bersatu. Before the election was called, many believed Bersatu would be almost wiped out.

9. How influential are cost of living issues?

Cost of living issues should be very important to voters: inflation, rising interest rates, and other general increases in the cost of living should facilitate voter pushback against the government. This influence on voting intentions is unknown.

10. How split will the Malay vote be?

This is the major question within the Malay heartlands, which covers approximately 90 seats on the peninsula. Based upon the Johor state elections, voters swung back to the BN solidly, in terms of seats. However, aggregate voting figures show the probability that the Malay vote may be split this election. How the Malay vote is split will basically determine what will happen after the results are known.

11. Who will non-Malays vote for?

This is another important question. Will the non-Malay vote go back to the BN, or swing towards the opposition? This will influence the number of seats the DAP will hold, and how many the MCA will win. It will also influence the number of seats PKR can hold.

12. What will be the final result?

This is the biggest unknown. One month ago, most pundits believed that Umno and the BN would win big time. However, there is intuition, supported by anecdotal signs that PN and PH are picking up support. There are also signs that there will be a large change in seats, that may or may not affect who will be in government in the end.

BN and PH will be the largest two blocks in the new parliament. Most probably BN will have a few more seats and can pull together a coalition from GPS and govern with a simple majority.

If PH performs well and isn’t too far behind in the seat count, it too could seek out coalition partners. However, the key block here would be GPS, more likely to side with BN.

It may be necessary for BN to seek out more coalition partners, especially if numbers between BN and PH are tight. For the BN, PAS would be the first option. This could bring in PN, which includes Bersatu. This means more of the same government.

Finally, there could be an ‘out of the box’ coalition, where BN creates a coalition with PH to exclude PAS. This option would usher a more moderate government.

These factors are unknown until the election results on Nov 19. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.