How will Malaysians vote?

 

When Malaysian voters cast their ballots on Nov 19, they will be faced with a choice of either voting for tried faces, and their known political culture, or a new face with new possibilities.

As people are desperately grappling with the rising cost of living, they will also have to choose a coalition which they feel can best tackle the problem and bring them some relief.

They also know that much of the problem the nation faces is due to political instability and self-interested politicians and that they have to choose more wisely this time.

And although unstated, they will also have to choose between having a more open society or a closed one.

Both the Barisan Nasional’s candidate for prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Perikatan Nasional’s Muhyiddin Yassin have served in the top post, albeit for short spells – Ismail for 14 months and Muhyiddin for 17 months.

Voters have seen how both performed. Voting them in will almost certainly mean more of the same, despite the promises of change in their respective manifestos.

The intelligent voter will ask: If this is how they feel, why didn’t they do it while they were in power?

Pakatan Harapan’s Anwar Ibrahim, however, has not sat in the prime minister’s chair yet.

The question is whether they will take chances with Anwar or, as the saying goes, subscribe to the belief “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t”.

Inflation and the economy are already uppermost in the minds of voters and they will have to choose who among the prime ministerial candidates can best handle it.

The soaring prices of foodstuff is hitting them hard in the stomach. They are aware that the value of the Malaysian ringgit is in decline; and they also hear and see news about major investors avoiding Malaysia due to political instability.

Even some hardcore party supporters, I believe, will consider this issue before casting their votes, especially since 2023 is predicted to be bad for the world economy.

It is evident that whichever coalition manages to convince voters it knows how to deal with the economy, and especially stabilise the prices of food and other daily necessities, has a clear advantage.

Voters will also consider which coalition can ensure political stability. They will have to decide which coalition – BN, PH or PN – can assure a smooth government and good governance. In this, they are likely to vote for the party they think can win so as to shore up its majority in Parliament.

All three coalitions, just like others contesting in the 15th general election, have laid out their manifestos for voters to see.

From what I gather, most Malaysians are wary of the promises made in the manifestos. Many of the pledges, they feel sure, are merely meant to milk their vote and won’t see light of day.

Who can blame them? For they have seen political parties and governments making promises only to break them later.

This time around, the manifestos of both the BN and PN hold some reformist promises, but I doubt people are buying it.

One reason is that most of the leaders of Bersatu, which is part of PN, were previously with Umno and are seen to have the same mindset. Muhyiddin was once Umno deputy president.

Some voters do not see the possibility of structural changes taking place with the current crop of BN and PN leaders in charge.

In fact, some fear that voting PN would give hardline or conservative Muslims more power and Malaysia would lose its multiracial and multireligious character.

An increasing number of voters see Malaysia sliding into a conservative, unprogressive, state if some of the old guards in BN and especially PN continue to hold sway.

Non-Malays and Malays who want a moderate Malaysia, therefore, tend to favour PH whose leaders have shown an open mind or at least have articulated stands that show an open mind, without compromising on ethics.

Voters are increasingly viewing PH as holding promise of bringing about a new dawn, especially with young people such as Rafizi Ramli, Fahmi Fadzil, Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad and Hannah Yeoh having a strong say.

Also, informed voters – both Muslim and non-Muslim – want an end to corruption.

As PH has made the eradication of corruption one of its primary promises, and as it had, during its 22 months in office, dragged several politicians before the courts – including former prime minister Najib Razak who has since been jailed – voters have faith in it to do more to curb corruption.

They are emboldened by Rafizi’s revelations of cases of graft or possible graft, and see this as sincerity in wanting to end corruption, especially in high places.

The fact that PKR candidates, including Anwar, have publicly declared their assets while candidates of BN and PN haven’t – and with their leaders giving lame excuses for not doing so – will have an impact on the educated voter.

However, not everyone feels corruption is as important as other factors such as party loyalty. Some older voters are content to back, as they have previously done, those of a conservative bend.

This group of voters, concentrated in the Malay heartlands, has no problem with a conservative Malaysia and will not want to take the risk of experimenting with PH.

The wildcard in this election is the emergence of the Undi18 group, youths aged 18 to 20 who can now vote. They form 1.4 million of the 21.1 million people eligible to vote.

This cohort is more likely to be influenced by peers and via social media. It means that whoever or whichever coalition has managed to spread its message in cyberspace has a better chance of winning their vote.

And it is this group that will likely be willing to give an ear to allegations of corruption and power abuse as they will be the ones most affected when the nation is burdened with greater debt.

They will also be open to change and be willing to take a risk.

But it remains to be seen how many of these social media savvy youngsters, who are quick to share information and make brave comments, will get off their chairs and cast their ballots on Nov 19.

Much also depends on whether it rains heavily or floods, as this will greatly reduce voter numbers. The opposition will be hoping for a bigger turnout as, going by experience, it means more votes for it.

Unlike in 2018 when anger over the 1MDB fiasco drove people to voting centres, no scandal or issue has captured people’s imagination this time around, so extra effort needs to be taken to ensure a bigger voter turnout.

Other than youths, women voters will also influence the outcome of the polls as 10,622,151 or 50.17% of voters are female. One reason BN has been able to win big over the years has been its ability to tap into the votes of women, especially rural women.

Urban women will note that PH has fielded 39 women in its 205-candidate line-up while BN has fielded 22 women among its 178 candidates and PN has given 16 of the 149 seats it is contesting to women. Gerakan Tanah Air has also placed 16 women among the 116 candidates it has fielded.

All said and done, much depends on what happens on the eve of polling day – any revelation of a scandal or mistake by a leader of a party – can potentially swing votes.

More importantly, it depends on how many voters come out to vote. And that depends on the weather. I’m sure bomohs will find plenty of employment this week. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.