GE15 | At the seaside village of Parit Jawa, about a 30-minute drive south of Muar town - a fleet adorned with black flags lined the local jetty.
These were not pirate ships flying the Jolly Roger, but instead were humble fishing vessels belonging to Muda supporters on Johor’s west coast.
For incumbent Muar MP and Muda president Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman, it was a stark difference from the 2018 general election, when most folks in the constituency’s largest fishing village hoisted BN colours instead.
Among those who jumped ship was a 44-year-old who only wished to be known as Din.
Once a committee member in Muar Umno’s Parit Kedondong division, Din told Malaysiakini he was a long-time BN voter - even in 2018 when there was a revolt against the coalition.
However, he now spends his time working as a Muda officer on top of his daily fishing activities and looks forward to voting for Syed Saddiq for the first time.
Explaining his change of heart, the fisher said he withdrew support from BN due to internal strife, but did not want to divulge further.
“I wouldn’t say that BN isn’t good, because it is good. It gave us a lot of development in the past. But perhaps Umno got a bit too comfortable and stopped taking care of its people,” he said.
Din claimed that many others have also shifted support from Umno to Muda, since the party’s inception in 2020, but he would not openly say so.
“Have you been to Parit Jawa jetty? What are the flags you see most?
“Sometimes, some of them are Muda supporters, but they don’t want to show or talk about it,” he said.
Asked why this was the case, he replied: “Who do we (Johoreans) live under? We have to remember that.”
It is unclear if this is a reference to the BN federal and state governments, or the Johor monarchy.
Receiving aid
For low-income communities who live off the land and sea - government aid is a crucial necessity to make ends meet, and the distribution of such aid is often perceived to be controlled by local political warlords.
Meanwhile, Syed Saddiq has often found himself in the crosshairs of Johor Crown Prince Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim - so, openly supporting the Muda president may not be a good look in conservative communities where fealty to the monarchy is expected.
One fisher, who only wished to be known as Wan, appeared fond of the Muar incumbent MP and said he was almost certain that the latter would get a second term.
“His work is okay, he helps the community a lot and gives aid to those who need it, as well as to school children.
“The other candidates seem okay, but (BN candidate) Helmy (Abd Latif) is a new candidate that I am not really familiar with. So even to make a comment about it, I don’t really know him,” the 41-year-old said.
Older BN supporters
Not all fisherfolk have switched sides, however, with BN’s white scales against a field of blue still featuring prominently on a number of vessels. Hardly any flags from Perikatan Nasional (PN) could be found at the jetty when Malaysiakini visited.
Those hoping for a BN win appear to be mostly from the older generation - who readily pledged support for the coalition despite not being familiar with its candidate Helmy.
“I don’t recognise the candidates, but most importantly, on polling day, I will cross the blue. Umno has not made any changes, with the others, I don't see their abilities - they just promise but never deliver,” said 86-year-old Maat Mohd Said when met by Malaysiakini at a warung (food stall) in the village.
Helmy is replacing Muar’s more recognisable three-term BN lawmaker Razali Ibrahim - who is contesting in the neighbouring Pagoh seat this election.
Other older residents of Parit Jawa also indicated they were still BN supporters.
However, they conceded that Syed Saddiq was popular among the youth, with not much regard for PN’s Abdullah Husin.
They also begrudgingly acknowledged that Syed Saddiq had contributed a significant amount to the constituents.
But it just wasn’t support for Syed Saddiq that Parit Jawa voters were reluctant to express openly.
Maharani Energy Gateway project
Malaysiakini found that many fisherfolk also declined to comment on Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar’s Maharani Energy Gateway project - despite it possibly having a major impact on the over 400 locals who make their living at sea.
The project, which aims to create an energy hub and deep sea port, involves creating three man-made islands covering an area of 1,295 hectares - about a quarter of the size of Putrajaya.
One of the islands will be located just 2km south of Parit Jawa, off the coast of Kampung Sri Menanti.
Parit Jawa itself will be a quarry site for sand to be used in the reclamation works.
An Environmental Impact Assessment report states that fisherfolk affected by the project will have to find new places to fish.
READ MORE: Johor sultan's sea reclamation venture expands to Muar
For fisher Rohaizan Zamhari, the matter is beyond the control of the local fisherfolk.
“Whether we agree or disagree with it, it is the sultan’s project. We are unable to protest against it,” he said.
Din echoed that the local fisherfolk were not against the project, as it was a project conducted by the state government under the purview of Johor royalty.
However, he told Malaysiakini that fisherfolk within the community feared for their welfare once the project starts.
“No one has called us for a meeting. If they did, we would raise the matter. There is fear regarding our careers, hence why fisherfolk disagree with the project.
“We don’t disagree because we are against the project However, it is a matter of compensation.
“We request compensation because our children are still young, and the project will affect our careers. If so, how will our children go to school?” he asked, stressing that the fisherfolk community would not protest so long as they are given incentives.
As a whole, the Maharani Energy Gateway project appears to not be a major campaign issue in this election - possibly due to its politically sensitive nature.
Syed Saddiq, however, had voiced concerns over its potential impact on Muar’s fishing community when news of the project first came out in March.
Winning supporters
Meanwhile, the incumbent MP’s efforts on the ground are not just winning over supporters in Parit Jawa.
One of his campaigners, a 40-year-old who only identified herself as Nurul from Parit Kedondong - a village 2km south of Parit Jawa - said she was once a BN supporter too.
“When I was in BN back in Kuala Lumpur, I never really got any aid. When I moved here as well, during floods, BN did give some help but not as much as Muda has.
“People here can see who goes to the ground to help. Those who help us will also be uplifted (during elections),” Nurul told Malaysiakini.
However, there are still many areas where Muda and Syed Saddiq have failed to sway sentiments.
Nurul’s hometown Parit Kedondong is part of the Parit Pecah voting district which is a grey area - meaning votes there could go either way.
However, on the electoral map, it appears to be an island amid a sea of black voting districts that dominate Sungai Balang - the second, more rural state seat in Muar, which Muda expects to remain BN leaning.
Parit Jawa is one of the few exceptions in Sungai Balang which is considered a white district for Muda.
Maharani voting patterns
Most of Syed Saddiq’s votes are expected to come from the more urban state seat of Maharani.
Curiously, during the Johor state election in March, Maharani fell to PN - which won with a 1,037 vote majority and 36 percent of total ballots in a six-cornered clash that featured BN and a Harapan incumbent.
Harapan’s Nor Hayati Bachok came in second place with 31 percent of the votes.
Data from voters in Maharani suggest that Harapan’s defeat in the state polls was due to low turnout.
There were about 2,000 fewer votes cast in Maharani during the state polls in March compared to the 2018 general election.
This is despite there being 11,000 more voters in the state seat compared to 2018, thanks in part to Undi18 and automatic voter registration.
Among those who did not vote in Maharani during the state election was Lim Yu Sheng, a local student.
“At that time, I didn't vote. I was not very concerned about the politics in Malaysia due to the past.
“I will vote this time because it is necessary,” she told Malaysiakini.
Muar, as a whole, has 26,000 more voters now compared to 2018 - although it is not clear how many of those registered automatically have any interest in voting.
Of the 68,925 voters in the constituency, almost half are below 40 years old, with 27 percent aged 18 to 29.
Meanwhile, Teo Wen Xing told Malaysiakini he believes the main reason BN won so many seats in the Johor state polls in March this year was that Malaysians were unable to come back to vote.
“There are many young Malaysian voters working in Singapore, so it is not convenient for them to come back to vote. This causes the voter turnout rates to be very low,” he said.
The 71-year-old retiree, however, said while he would encourage his children who work overseas to come back to vote, it would not be necessary if it was inconvenient for them.
Presence in the constituency
For BN candidate Helmy, Maharani is a tough egg to crack.
“In the town area, we cannot predict their needs, but I am doing my best to convince them. My advantage is that I am a Muar local, I was raised here,” he told Malaysiakini.
However, Helmy expressed confidence that voters would make the right choice.
“The sentiment I have noticed is that the rakyat are more aware that there is a need for stability in government administration. The Muar locals are smart in determining who is able to lead the country,” he said.
Helmy has been working the ground daily in Muar, albeit mostly focused on shoring up support in Sungai Balang.
However, Syed Saddiq himself has been less present in the constituency.
This is because the Muda president has been campaigning for other Muda candidates and Harapan allies as well - with his latest stop being in Kota Marudu, Sabah.
The incumbent MP won Muar in 2018 when he was a member of Bersatu, with 53 percent of the votes.
Besides BN, he is also facing Johor PAS chief Abdullah Husin - who is staging a more low-key campaign in Muar - focused on in-person meetings and house visits.
Abdullah is expected to get votes from those who continue to support Bersatu as part of the PN coalition.
However, this may not be a huge blow to Syed Saddiq.
A Merdeka Center survey conducted in August this year found support for PN in Muar at just 29 percent, while 49 percent were opposed to them, and 22 percent did not state an opinion.
In comparison, the survey sighted by Malaysiakini found support for Syed Saddiq at 48 percent, with 42 percent against, and 10 percent with no response.
Support for BN was at 41 percent in favour, 40 percent against, and 19 percent with no response.
The survey was conducted among 400 Muar voters who were randomly chosen to represent the demography of the constituency’s voters in 2018.
Its margin for error was at 4.9 percent, which means support for Syed Saddiq could be lower at around 44 percent, or that BN’s support could be 4.9 percent higher as well.
However, as seen in Maharani during the state election, in a three-cornered fight - gaining 50 percent of the votes is not necessary to win.
Muar, and the rest of the country, will go to the polls this Saturday. - Mkini
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