MAJOR NEWS EARTHQUAKE : SYRIA ASKS ISRAEL FOR HELP, HAMAS COMING EN BLOC TO MALAYSIA ??

 Please read my conclusions at the bottom.

I saw this news from two sources. This is about Syria seeking help from Israel to fight the rebels who are now attacking the government forces. The first one quotes a Saudi newspaper :

“notable development” - Syria asked Israel help against rebels
Saudi newspaper Elaph reported Monday
intelligence official confirmed Assad's request
message relayed to Israel through Assad ally in Europe
Israel said it was not particularly concerned with Syria
Israel said Syria must first expel all Iranians before they help

Assad relying on Israel's predictable stance toward his regime
in contrast to uncertain position of rebels regarding Israel

• Netanyahu said Israel “constantly following” situation in Syria  
• and taking action to protect Israel’s interests.

OSTB : Israel did not say no.  I believe they are already involved.
If this happens Israel will work with Syria, Russia AND THE KURDISH. 
Russia cannot commit too much resources in Syria because of Ukraine War. 
Israel will also  extract a peace treaty with Syria 
There is no peace treaty yet between Israel and Syria. 
The Golan Heights may also get resolved - after 57 years.
Syria may even join the Abrahamic Accords.

• rebels funded by Turkey, launched large-scale offensive 
• led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) 
• advanced into Aleppo, Hama 
• Syrian govt forces fully withdrawn from Aleppo
• Syrian army not heavily present in Hama 
• Iranian elements and militias maintaining largest presence

OSTB : Iran is a major problem in Syria

 

Israel views Sunni Kurds as natural allies in the region 
Israeli view is that Kurds are great nation 
great nation without political independence
Israel “must reach out and strengthen ties with them” 

 
OSTB : Both Turkey and Iran are enemies of the Kurdish people. It looks like the long suffering Kurdish people may come out on top.

Here is the news report about Hamas moving en bloc to Malaysia. This is very bad news.

 

Dec. 3, 2024 / JNS

Turkey, Iran welcome Hamas after terror group asked to leave Qatar
Hamas’s entire senior leadership left Qatar

senior Hamas officials left Doha for “various destinations”

Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya settled in Ankara

• others considering move to Malaysia.
• Malaysia country with Muslim majority 
• Hamas’s military wing runs operations in Malaysia
• In 2010, Hamas sent 15 men to the Asian country
• In 2018, Hamas engineer al-Batash shot dead in Kuala Lumpur
• an expert in suicide drones and rocket systems. 
• Mossad orchestrated his death

Two years ago, Msian police arrested locals on suspicion of kidnapping Gaza computer programmer on Israel’s orders, allegedly because the Mossad believed him to be a Hamas asset.

Ok here is a 21 minute video. Warning : This is an Israeli channel. (I view as many sources to hear what different people are saying). You can listen to the first two minutes where Hamas moving to Malaysia is mentioned. Then Malaysia is mentioned again in some detail in minute 18:00.  Please read my conclusions at the very end.

 

 

My Conclusions :

This is all about survival. Remember I have repeated again and again and again that the Arabs will even sell their own mothers to save their own necks. This is what is happening now in Syria. Assad first allied himself with the ayatollahs in Iran to help him survive the Syrian Civil War which began 13 years ago in 2011.  On hindsight the strategy worked because the ayatollahs and their 100% funded and armed Hezbollah helped Assad defeat the ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (al Qaeda) in Syria. 

After the ISIS was defeated the ayatollahs got carried away and they thought they could ramp up their activities in Lebanon and against Israel. Hence also that October 7th 2023 attack against Israel. Well, that gamble has not turned out too well.

Hamas has been destroyed. Hezbollah has been destroyed.   Gaza is occupied. South Lebanon is occupied. Hamas have been kicked out of Qatar. Iran has been bombed. Soleimani, Raisi, Nasrallah, Haniyeh, Sinwar are all dead. 

If only the ayatollahs just minded their own business, kill a few 22 year old girls now and then and leave the rest of the Middle East alone, then none of these things would have happened. Soleimani, Raisi, Nasrallah, Haniyeh, Sinwarwould all still be alive, Gaza would not be occupied, south Lebanon would not be occupied and Hamas would still be living in five star hotels in Qatar.

• Ok that is all water under the bridge. 
• You cannot change the mistakes of the past. 
• Too late. You can only talk about it.
• Maybe by talking about the past you will not repeat the same mistakes.
  

Now the more urgent matter at hand is President Donald Trump's threat on Monday about the "Middle East" having HELL TO PAY if the remaining hostages are not released BEFORE his inauguration on 20th January 2025. He is referring to Hamas, Turkey, Qatar and of course Iran. 

Turkey and Qatar because both Turkey and Qatar provide refuge and financial assistance to Hamas. Which is why Qatar has expedited that Hamas senior leaders living in Doha must leave Qatar asap. According to the news reports above this has already happened. Hamas has left Qatar. The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad depends 100% for his daily survival on the huge American military airbase at al Udeid (picture below).

Unfortunately for the Sheikh the new President Trump is a businessman and understands the 'Art of the Deal'.  Trump understands "leverage". America has so much leverage in the Middle East. If the Sheikh wants to play stupid, the US can leave al Udeid.  Then the Saudis, who hate Qatar, can occupy Qatar. Or effect a regime change in Qatar. This is the Middle East - one minute the fellow's head is sitting on his shoulders. The next minute the fellow's head can be rolling on the desert sand. It looks like the easier option is for the Sheikh to listen to Donald Trump.

But here is the catch - I dont think those hostages are going to be released by 20th January, 2025. 

Because the Sheikh of Qatar does not call the shots over Hamas. That would be the Muslim Brotherhood and to an extent also the ayatollahs in Iran. No one knows where exactly to find the Muslim Brotherhood but Iran is a sitting duck. 

So if the hostages are not released by January 20th, Iran and Hamas might have HELL TO PAY. What if the US bombs Iran back to the Stone Age? 

What about other countries who play host to Hamas? What will happen to them?

My view is things are also not going to end well for Turkey. Erdogan is also a life long member and supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. 

If Assad accepts Israel's pre-condition that all Iranians be expelled from Syria that will not be a problem at all. On the ground Iran is a third rate military. FOR SIX LONG HOURS on 26th October 2024 the ayatollahs could not shoot down even one Israeli aircraft or missile (other than some slow flying recon drones) which attacked over 20 locations throughout Iran. They were powerless. The entire Middle East saw this including President Assad of Syria. It is better to have the Israelis helping him to keep his head on his shoulders rather than the ayatollahs.

And obviously Syria is facing this latest and very serious rebel insurrection because Hezbollah has been wiped out and the ayatollahs have lost the fight in Lebanon, Gaza and to an extent in Yemen. A vacuum has developed. The ayatollahs have been exposed as paper camels.

If the Israelis help Syria, they will be fighting against the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (al Qaeda) rebels who are funded by Turkey. Israel will be indirectly fighting Turkey. The Israelis have also said it clearly that the Kurdish people are their 'natural allies'.  The Kurds are also fighting against Turkey.  Imagine Israel, Syria and the Kurds together fighting Turkiye. As I said this will not end well for Turkiye.

The Russians want Syria as their permanent ally. The Russians have their only Mediterranean naval base at Tartus in Syria. They do not want to lose it. They need Bashar Assad. But with the war in Ukraine they are stretched quite thin (until January 20th 2025 because Trump will put an end to the Ukraine conflict). So if the Israelis can help Assad defeat the rebels and remain in power, the Russians are fine with that. They dont have to spend money and commit more troops.

The Israelis will gain a new friend in the Middle East - Syria. There may be a peace treaty with Syria. Syria may join the Abrahamic Accords. The Golan Heights may be resolved (partial withdrawal? in exchange for peace). The Israelis will be rid of the ayatollahs. 

The huge question mark here is - what is the IQ level of these various actors in the Middle East (and some in South East Asia?)

What is the IQ level of the Israelis, the Turks, the Arabs, the Kurds, the ayatollahs? Who is clever and who is stupid?

Right now I am almost done reading a 350 page book, the Al-Sīrah al-Nabawiyyah also known as  Siraat-e Ibn Hisham. (I have read the Seerah from a long time ago). It is a biography of the Messenger as "narrated" by a fellow called Ibn Hisham who was born in Basra, Iraq (nobody knows when) and died in Fustat in Egypt in 833 AD. That was 1,200 years ago. 

• The pre-Islamic people of Yemen settled their matters by arbitration of the fire. 
• There was a hole in the ground somewhere in Yemen. 
• The parties in dispute would sit by this hole.  
• A fire would come out of this hole and consume whoever was not telling the truth. 

Problem solved. No need for Attorney Generals, High Courts, Appeals Court, pesky lawyers and such. All you need is a hole in the ground with a hungry fire in the hole.

The IQ level is very important.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.