PAS-Bersatu feud may give Umno an opening in Selangor, says analyst

Hisomuddin Bakar says the dispute over the Perikatan Nasional chairman’s post could allow Barisan Nasional to regain Malay-majority seats in the state.

The state chapters of PH, BN and PN are reportedly already discussing seat allocations in Selangor.

PETALING JAYA:

 Barisan Nasional stands to gain in Selangor if PAS and Bersatu prolong their standoff over the vacant Perikatan Nasional chairman’s post, say analysts.

Ilham Centre’s Hisomuddin Bakar said although PN had made significant gains in the 2023 state polls, much of its support stemmed from being seen as a new alternative to BN.

Hisomuddin Bakar.

“Many BN supporters who were angry and disappointed channelled their protest votes to PN,” he told FMT.

PN has been without a chairman since Muhyiddin Yassin resigned effective Jan 1 in the wake of the Perlis political crisis.

PAS has since laid claim to the post, but party president Abdul Hadi Awang has ruled himself out for health reasons. Bersatu, however, insists that the coalition must be helmed by a party president.

Hisomuddin said the prolonged spat could give BN space to reclaim support in Selangor, especially in semi-urban and rural Malay-majority seats along the state’s northern and eastern borders.

“If PN fractures, logically its strength will no longer be the same as when it was contested under a single logo,” he said, adding that voters may also begin questioning the sincerity of PN’s calls for Malay unity.

He said this could allow BN to reposition itself in Selangor, which it ruled for 51 years until 2008.

In the 2023 Selangor state election, Pakatan Harapan won 32 of the 56 seats, while BN only captured two. PN made significant inroads, securing 22 seats.

Hisomuddin said PH faces minimal immediate risk, as most of its seats are in mixed or non-Malay majority constituencies where the PAS-Bersatu dispute carries less impact.

A source familiar with the matter told FMT the state chapters of PH, BN and PN were already discussing possible seat allocations in Selangor amid PN’s internal turmoil.

“All eyes are on Selangor because all three coalitions are looking for alliances. PAS is trying to work with Umno, while Umno is also trying to see if it would be better off working with PH,” the source said.

A PH-BN arrangement would be the most viable, the source added, as the two coalitions have different voter bases, minimising potential seat overlaps.

PAS gains may not be enough

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said PAS’s gains in Selangor reflect growing Malay voter disillusionment with PH, particularly over economic pressures.

However, he said the ongoing dispute between PAS and Bersatu could weaken PN, although PH at present still struggles to match up to PAS in Malay-majority seats.

“To attract Malay voters, Umno remains the key conduit, but it needs strong backing and acceptance from PH supporters,” he said, adding that weak PH-BN cooperation in the last state election allowed PN to win over a substantial number of protest votes. - FMT