Norwegian missile ban sends two signals to Malaysia - analyst

 

The Norwegian decision to block the export of naval strike missiles (NSM) to Malaysia likely stems from political considerations rather than technicalities, sending two signals to Malaysia.

According to Universiti Malaya defence analyst Lam Choong Wah, however, it is unclear whether the decision was made on Oslo’s own accord or influenced by another party.

“The political factor is likely that Norway does not wish to export NSM, which are more capable in terms of range, stealth, seekers, and anti-jamming capabilities, to Malaysia, as it might alter the status quo of the current balance of military power in Southeast Asia.

“For example, the United States openly imposes missile export restrictions on several countries to maintain the regional balance of military power,” he told Malaysiakini.

He explained that the situation sends two signals to Malaysia: First, Norway no longer considers Malaysia a strategic partner.

“Second, Norway, or the Western powers represented by Norway, do not want to see Malaysia possess long-range and powerful strike capabilities,” he added.

Lam Choong Wah

Lam said this when asked to comment on a report by the defence news portal Malaysian Defence, which claimed that Norway had banned the export of NSMs to Malaysia.

The move could leave the Royal Malaysian Navy’s long-delayed littoral combat ships (LCS) programme without an anti-surface missile armament, at least until a replacement could be found.

Clarification sought

In response to the report, Defence Minister Khaled Nordin said Malaysia is using diplomatic channels with Norway to obtain clarification and seek the next steps to protect national interests.

Each of the navy's five Maharaja Lela-class LCS was supposed to be equipped with eight NSM. They are primarily used to attack naval targets from hundreds of kilometres away, but can also be used against land targets.

The lead ship KD Maharaja Lela began sea trials in Jan and is scheduled for delivery in December.

However, the export ban means Norwegian defence firm Kongsberg must cancel the contract signed in 1998, as it cannot legally deliver the missiles to Malaysia to equip the ships.

Additionally, existing equipment on the LCS, such as ramps for the NSM launchers and associated wiring, may need to be removed, and the ship's combat management system will need modification once the government chooses to adopt a different missile.

This places additional pressure on a project that has been delayed for years and is urgently needed by the navy to renew its ageing fleet.

Defence Minister Khaled Nordin

The export ban not only affects the LCS programme but also orders made last year to replace Exocet missiles installed on the Lekiu-class frigates KD Jebat and KD Lekiu.

Procuring other missiles

Asked about the impact of Norway's policy on the LCS programme, as well as Malaysia's defence procurement and military readiness more generally, Lam said the LCS could still be fitted with other missiles such as the European-made Exocet.

However, he said the Exocet is considered outdated due to its short firing range, being non-stealthy, and having less sophisticated seeker and anti-jamming capabilities.

For comparison, the defence firm Kongsberg claims that the NSM has a range of more than 300km, while its rival MBDA claims the latest version of the Exocet has a range of around 250km.

Older versions of the Exocet already fielded by the navy have a range of around 50km for the submarine-launched variant, or 70km for the variant equipped on the Lekiu-class frigates.

“Aside from the Exocet, Malaysia can still procure missiles from China, Russia, and India, but the fire control system, detection radar, cabling, and integration with the combat management system would require major modifications,” he said.

Despite the significant political and technical changes required, Lam said Malaysia must find a compromise to procure missiles from alternative suppliers.

Aside from diplomatic efforts, he added, Malaysia could take the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) for a hearing to seek compensation from the Norwegians for breaching the contract.

“But defence asset procurement disputes are rarely brought to the PCA because they involve military secrets.

“The lowest option is for Malaysia to impose economic, product, or diplomatic sanctions against Norway,” Lam said. - Mkini