With all the hullabaloo muddling and muddying the terrain, it now seems likely that parliamentary polls may go full term, raising questions, given his increasingly tenuous predicament, whether Anwar Ibrahim will even be a candidate in the next one.
We can unpack the recent events, but it's more difficult to understand the underlying reasons and determine which of the moves are significant and which parties will benefit the most.
One of the major winners from unfolding events may again be PAS, while Umno may do well in the Johor state election and perhaps Negeri Sembilan but not so great elsewhere.
Casualties will be Anwar’s fortunes, along with PKR and Bersatu, while the fate of dark horse newcomer Parti Bersama Malaysia may be mixed and even encouraging.
There’s a lot to absorb in mere weeks following the long seeming calm after Anwar renewed ties with Umno and Sarawak, making promises to both as he cobbled together a loose alliance, stable on the surface but with deep undercurrents beneath post-15th general election in November 2022.
Despite appearances of calm, there was dissension waiting to bubble up at the right time. Anwar’s excessive comfort cost him as Umno showed its hands despite many concessions given, dissolving the Johor state assembly and promising to contest all seats in the state.
It has been a rocking, roiling month for politics in May as Umno announced on May 16 it will contest all state seats in Johor, throwing the fragile Madani coalition headed by Anwar into chaos and for the PM to give a sharp rebuke to Umno at a Harapan summit the following day.
As if that was not enough, even as the Harapan summit was in progress and Anwar with his hands full with Umno’s intransigence, former PKR ministers and MPs Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad dropped a bombshell.
The duo exited PKR and Parliament, uniting under the dormant Bersama to push a fresh agenda for Malaysians, vowing to ally with no other party and fighting for a new agenda which was announced in some detail on their website.
Anwar’s woes continue
Anwar’s woes continued into June when PAS ended its dalliance with Bersatu, terminating political ties after six years. It was announced by its president Abdul Hadi Awang on June 9 on the back of continued wrangling between the two parties.
Not so bad for Harapan and PKR, but PAS seems amenable to making political pacts with other parties, including Umno, which should worry the Madani coalition a lot about what Umno is up to, even if now that is with regard to Johor only. Nothing says it can’t happen for parliamentary elections too.
And then former Bersatu deputy president Hamzah Zainudin, who has fallen out with the party president Muhyiddin Yassin, announced he has formed a new party called Parti Wawasan Negara.
It’s a mystery how it was formed so fast and whether they have the necessary approvals, but the party will be aligned to the Perikatan Nasional coalition.
What is significant is that the new party has the support of PAS, whose president Hadi was present to lend his support. In fact, Hamzah said the party’s name was approved by PAS’ leadership, including Hadi, who was at the so-called “Reset” gathering. Hadi even launched the meeting.
Also present were PN chairperson Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, Gerakan president Dominic Lau, and Kelantan Menteri Besar Nassuruddin Daud. Significantly, Samsuri is a rising star within PAS and vice president.
It is often speculated that either he or Hamzah may be prime ministerial material if PAS should be asked to form the next government.
Hadi also announced in his officiating speech at the so-called “Reset” convention on Saturday that PAS and its allies within PN have decided to retain Hamzah as its parliamentary opposition leader.
Now, this coalition seems rather strange considering that PAS and Bersatu are the main parties in it and PAS has announced they are cutting political ties with Bersatu. But it looks like if the PN coalition remains, it will be controlled by PAS and Wawasan Negara, sidelining Muhyiddin.
Hamzah’s Wawasan Negara has the backing of 19 previous Bersatu MPs, leaving six with Muhyiddin. Together with PAS’ 43, they form the backbone, accounting for 62 of PN’s 68 seats. The other two parties, Gerakan and MIPP, don’t have any seats.
PAS in strong position
And then on Saturday night too, former Umno member and minister, lawyer Zaid Ibrahim, joined PAS. He said in a Facebook post on Sunday: “Last night I was welcomed as a PAS member by its top national leaders. They're warm, sincere, and friendly.
“I will repay their faith. I will work hard to dispel the image of PAS as an extreme anti-democratic party, not suitable for a multicultural Malaysia.
“On the contrary, PAS is the only Malay-majority party with the strength and resolve to do away with inequality, hegemony and class preferences. The essence of Islam will be the governing principle.
“You will not have under the PAS rule where we are described as equal, but some are more equal than others. That's why PAS will govern Malaysia together with like-minded progressive MPs after the next GE.”
That’s a coup of sorts for PAS: a Malay liberal who has previously been a member of Umno, DAP and PKR - the three other major parties in Malaysia besides PAS - has unequivocally endorsed PAS. A feather in PAS’ cap even if one thought of Zaid as an itinerant party hopper.
The developments perhaps favour PAS most, which seems to have a more coherent strategy going forward than the other three major parties, PKR, DAP and Umno/BN. Bersatu had previously rode on PAS’ robes to gain 25 seats but is now left with six.
By aligning with Wawasan Negara, PAS hopes to have some semblance of multiracialism and moderation. That is helped by Zaid coming into PAS and extolling its virtues, including an endorsement as the only party which might work for all.
Together with the groundwork that it has been doing to strengthen its position and extend its support base, PAS is probably the strongest, best organised party going into the polls and stands the best chance of getting the greatest number of seats for the second time in a row.
Umno is all gung-ho about Johor, but as with previous polls, it has no standing in the Malay heartland where PAS and its allies reign supreme. Even if it retains Johor, it is not likely to do much better elsewhere.
PAS is too smart to ally with Umno in areas where it is dominant, although Umno may make overtures in that direction. Umno’s performance is likely to be middling or even worse at GE16 for Parliament. It has nothing new to offer.
With Chinese and non-Malay support, DAP will still likely pull through but probably could lose seats because of its voicelessness on important issues and the rising support for the Bersama duo, Rafizi and Nik Nazmi, where they are likely to take some urban votes from DAP.
The party most likely to be wiped out in the next election is Bersatu, and with it the exit of Muhyiddin from politics. Its standing of 25 seats in the last election is most likely entirely due to aligning with PAS. They could lose all their seats.
Uncertain future
Anwar’s PKR faces a rather uncertain future from Bersama, which is mounting a credible, coordinated and early challenge to almost all of PKR’s seats, with 10 MPs already in the bag by some counts.
Peculiarly, any support that Anwar may have through Harapan post GE16 may continue to come from DAP, the largest party in the coalition with 40 seats compared to PKR’s 31 and Umno/BN’s 30.
It’s hard to see how Anwar can win enough to ensure the largest number of seats for Harapan to ensure he gets a chance to form the government again. That is likely to pass on to PAS.
It’s unlikely that even if there was some kind of electoral pact with PAS, the Islamic party will give up an opportunity to get its own prime minister. Anwar must be able to see this and therefore will likely go for a full term and announce his resignation before the polls.
As for dark horse Bersama, it is likely to make a significant impact by taking seats in urban areas previously the domain of PKR and even DAP. They may do very much better than expected, but even if they don’t, they will likely set a base for the future by retaining their deposits.
As the only party which has nothing to lose and everything to gain, the possibility for significant upside surprise for Bersama cannot be dismissed. They are, so far, acting true to their intentions, asking for a review of Selangor’s controversial guidelines for places of worship of non-Muslims, for instance.
One thing for sure, this is not an election that Malaysians are going to sit out. Expect participation to increase even if early polls are not called. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM cannot ever understand the logic that you should protest by not voting. If necessary, just choose the best of the worst.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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