BN-PN tsunami could push Harapan to worst GE outcome since 2008, Selangor defeat

 

The 16th general election could end with a 20-year setback for Pakatan Harapan if the BN-Perikatan Nasional pact continues its momentum and turns its “Malay unity” wave into a tsunami.

The Negeri Sembilan election showed that BN-PN voters were highly motivated by the pact’s communal agenda, fueled by anti-DAP sentiments and perceptions that the Harapan-led Madani government has not made life better.

Their ballots on Aug 1 closely matched BN and PN’s combined vote share from the 15th general election with almost perfect vote transferability between the two.

A Malaysiakini analysis applying this same formula to the peninsula shows that if BN-PN can sustain their vote shares from GE15 into GE16, the pact could secure 122 seats - 10 more than a simple majority - allowing it to form the federal government without support from the Borneo states.

Meanwhile, Harapan would be left with just 43 MPs in the peninsula - 37 fewer than what they achieved almost 20 years ago during the 2008 polls.

Harapan could also lose Selangor to the BN-PN pact while its hold on Penang could erode further.

For the Parliament seats, the Malaysiakini analysis indicated that Harapan would be pigeon-holed into urban areas and mixed seats with losses stretching from Penang to Johor, and even in the Klang Valley.

DAP will be the least impacted, dropping from 33 seats in the peninsula to 30. The seats they stand to lose are Raub, Bentong, and Labis.

However, the picture is less rosy for PKR, which could be knocked down to 11 peninsula seats from the 28 it won in GE15.

Among the notable PKR seats that could fall are Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Tambun, as well as Sungai Siput, Tanjong Malim, Gombak, Sungai Buloh, Setiawangsa, Lembah Pantai, Bandar Tun Razak, Pasir Gudang, and Johor Bahru.

Amanah, meanwhile, could be left with just two seats instead of eight - with the two they hold on to being Kota Raja and Pulai.

It could get worse

When contacted, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat agreed with Malaysiakini’s assessment.

“Correct - all things being equal, by just merging BN and PN votes, 28 of Harapan seats would flip, Harapan would be left with 43,” he said.

Likewise on a Malaysiakini podcast, Merdeka Center senior research officer Ted Lee independently came to the same conclusion that Harapan will likely be left with 43 seats in the peninsula in the next national polls.

“The situation in Negeri Sembilan is very likely to be a ‘copy-and-paste’ scenario that will play out next in Malacca, or even across the entire Peninsular Malaysia,” he said in the Chinese-language podcast available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

BN and PN leaders celebrating their victory in the N Sembilan polls last Saturday

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Lee said the 43 seats are just a baseline, however, and that Harapan’s performance could be even worse if there is any swing among Chinese and Indian voters.

“We might see some Chinese voters dissatisfied with the government’s performance, while Indian voters might feel their religious issues - or even their concerns as a minority group - have gone completely undelivered and unaddressed (by Harapan).

“If these voters swing away, 43 is merely the best-case baseline. Beyond that, the count could drop to 35, or even 30 seats,” he said.

Lee said another factor that could deal more damage to Harapan is Parti Bersama Malaysia, a splinter party led by ex-PKR duo Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, which is expected to make an impact in the Klang Valley.

Potential BN-PN speedbump

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Syaza Shukri said that even before the Negeri Sembilan election, her forecast was that BN and PN could bag 109 seats.

However, she said this seat count could be higher - if BN and PN can sort out some obstacles.

“Maybe it is possible to get 120, but that’s assuming there wouldn’t be a headache further north and the understanding continues, especially in states like Perak, Pahang, and other PAS states,” she added.

She was referring to PN’s dominance in Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, and Terengganu, as well as their growing presence in Perak and Pahang.

BN has no seats in Kedah, Perlis, and Terengganu - failing to gain any ground even when in partnership with Harapan.

It did, however, manage to get one seat in Kelantan in 2023.

BN-PN partnership at the federal level is thus likely to depend on some kind of arrangement, or may require BN to make compromises in certain states to attain Putrajaya.

Malaysiakini's analysis showed that if these issues are ironed out, BN-PN will continue to dominate Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, and Terengganu - with only three Kedah state seats viable for Harapan, namely Kota Darul Aman, Bakar Arang, and Sidam.

The partnership would also see BN-PN forming the next state government in Perak and Pahang, with 41 and 37 seats in each state respectively.

They'll also be able to win Malacca with 24 of the 28 seats.

Selangor at risk

But their biggest potential victory will be capturing Selangor, a state Harapan and its predecessor, Pakatan Rakyat, held since 2008.

Here, BN and PN’s combined vote share could net them 32 of the 56 seats, three more than required for a simple majority. If so, Harapan will be left with 24 seats.

Among the Selangor seats that will be flipped from Harapan are Kuala Kubu Baharu, Kota Damansara, Meru, and Sungai Pelek.

Merdeka Centre’s calculations found that almost two-thirds of Malay votes had gone to PN during the 2023 state election, while another third were combined votes for BN and Harapan, which were partners at the time.

Lee said, as it stands, Harapan only has 29 seats in the state - just enough to form government, which the Merdeka Centre researcher said is a precarious position.

“This means if the Selangor election is held in the next year or two, the starting point is already a 50-50 toss-up. Even under a 50-50 scenario - assuming Indian votes stay with Harapan - it’s 29 against 27.

“Under these conditions, non-Malay votes wouldn’t need to swing by much; a five percent shift would be enough to change the situation,” he said.

Syaza, meanwhile, opined that it’s no longer 50-50 if BN and PN combined.

However, she noted that unlike Johor and Negeri Sembilan, it’s PN who will be the main force, not BN.

Penang, the last bastion

With most of the peninsula swallowed up by a potential BN-PN tsunami, the last remaining bastion for Harapan will be Penang.

Here, the BN-PN pact is expected to further weaken Harapan’s hold on the state, but not enough to capture it.

Harapan is expected to keep Penang with 24 out of 40 seats, just one fewer than it won in 2023.

The seat that will likely be captured by BN-PN is Bayan Lepas, bringing them up to 14 seats in the state.

“For Penang, I think the situation is still okay because (many) constituencies remain Chinese-majority,” Lee said.

However, like Selangor and the rest of the peninsula, the results could be worse if non-Malays turn against Harapan.

Syaza surmised the situation as such: “It will be difficult for Harapan everywhere if BN and PN can really maintain this collaboration into GE16.”

Meanwhile, Sunway University’s Wong offered a different perspective for both Selangor and Penang, saying that the scenarios laid out are only likely if “Harapan is stupid enough” to dissolve the Selangor and Penang legislatures together with Parliament.

“If GE16 is held by the end of this year, while Selangor and Penang go full term to dissolve only in September and August 2028, leaving the state elections in late October, Malaysia would have been under BN-PN for nearly two years.

“The Malay unity wave could have waned by then. In short, Harapan needs to think in the longer term, how to come back,” he said.

Whither hope?

The gloomy forecast for Harapan isn’t just because of Malay nationalism. Instead, it’s also because the coalition doesn’t really have anything going for it or an effective counterargument to the “Malay unity” push.

As Bukit Gasing assemblyperson Rajiv Rishyakaran put it: “We (Harapan) offer voters no compelling reason to choose us beyond merely existing in office”.

He further drove the message by saying that DAP and Harapan’s mantra of “we are better” is just lazy.

But even Harapan’s old campaign narrative of stopping BN corruption rings hollow now.

The coalition, under Anwar’s watch, has been accused of abetting alleged corruption in the Sabah mining scandal.

There’s also the decision to drop prosecution against BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in the Yayasan Akalbudi case - which he is likely to get a full acquittal for eventually.

Recent political developments show that not only has Anwar failed to keep Zahid on his side, but that he has done so at the expense of his own supporters.

PM Anwar Ibrahim and his deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi

Likewise, the BN-PN wave shows that Anwar, despite veering right, has failed to convince Malays that their interests would not be undermined if he gets a second term in office, and that DAP is not an existential threat to the community as claimed by BN and PN.

Meanwhile, attempts to spook Chinese voters with the threat of PAS in government may help Harapan stay afloat in the near future, but it is not a sustainable strategy for the coalition.

However, time is running out for Anwar and Harapan, with expectations high that Zahid and BN will force a snap general election soon. - Mkini