The Kubang Pasu constituency in Kedah was synonymous with Dr Mahathir Mohamad who had been the country's prime minister twice.
After losing in the polls for the Alor Setar Selatan parliamentary seat in the 1969 general election, the national leader had won uncontested at Kubang Pasu in 1974, after which, he made it a BN stronghold.
Mahathir continued to be Kubang Pasu MP until the 1999 general election, before the seat was “given” to one of his secretaries, Mohd Johari Baharum who contested and won it in 2004.
Since then, Johari had made Kubang Pasu parliamentary seat looks like BN's fixed deposit when he retained it for three consecutive terms until 2018, when he was defeated by Amiruddin Hamzah.
Amiruddin, who is a former PAS state assemblyperson, had contested in Kubang Pasu under Bersatu, which then was a Pakatan Harapan component party.
Again, the Mahathir's factor indirectly played a role in the constituency as the former premier was the then Bersatu and Harapan chairperson.
Johari's failure to defend his seat for BN was largely seen due to Mahathir's role as the then-opposition chief, and not Amiruddin’s weakness.
During the election, Mahathir and Harapan had successfully created a wave which led to BN's first defeat after being in power for over 60 years, with the 1MDB scandal playing a major factor that caused voters to swing to the coalition.
It saw Mahathir make a comeback as an MP after winning the Langkawi seat, and was appointed as the prime minister for the second time.
For the 14th general election, the nonagenarian again is contesting at the island, albeit on a different ticket. He is defending Langkawi under Pejuang, a new party which is moving solo without cooperating with other major political coalitions.
Due to this situation, many see the Kubang Pasu seat as an “open season”, and the constituency would become a parameter to measure how much politicians would depend on the Mahathir factor.
It is also going to tell whether Amiruddin, who is defending Kubang Pasu as a Pejuang candidate, would be able to retain the seat.
Malaysiakini's observation found that Mahathir still commands some influence in Kubang Pasu, albeit weaker than before and divided into two segments.
The first group involves Pejuang supporters who still follow Mahathir, while the second being those who know Amiruddin personally and support him as their representative.
Malaysiakini managed to interview several candidates who are contesting in Kubang Pasu to get their perspective, especially on the context of Mahathir's influence in the area.
Dr M is not the only factor - Harapan
Pakatan Harapan candidate Aizuddin Ariffin said while the constituency used to be Mahathir's stronghold, the former premier is not the only factor that would decide who will win the seat in GE15.
"From the way I see it, the defining factor for this election would be the fence-sitters. They are still observing until now, undecided.
"To me, the one that would determine who wins is not any personality like Mahathir. Because if Kubang Pasu voters want to see changes, it is no longer about Mahathir.
"The percentage (of Mahathir's influence) is still there and needs to be taken into account, but I think more weight would be on whether the people want to change or not.
"During my campaign activities here, I have seen that the voters' mood had improved (towards Harapan), Insha Allah.
"But I don’t want to take it for granted, and will continue to focus on my effort to meet as many voters as I can, and work hard," he said.
Clock stopped ticking?
BN candidate Hasmuni Hassan, meanwhile, believed that Mahathir's decision to leave Umno and made BN his enemy had caused Kubang Pasu to be underdeveloped.
The Umno Youth secretary said he personally still respects Mahathir as a leader who had contributed to the country during his years in Umno and BN.
"However, since he left Umno-BN and made us his enemy, that he could even conspire with PKR and DAP in GE14, Mahathir had curtailed the development of Kubang Pasu.
"Thus, I am offering myself to represent Kubang Pasu in the Dewan Rakyat, to ensure that the people would get all their needs met.
"I am confident that Kubang Pasu BN machinery will be all out this time. They are very highly spirited to see BN wrest Kubang Pasu and form the federal government," he said.
On Amiruddin, Hasmuni said he respected the former Kedah state exco member, but said that the incumbent MP cannot be as effective anymore because he is no longer in the government.
"It is hard for him (Amiruddin) to help the rakyat in Kubang Pasu.
"I think the trend in this election has changed. Mahathir and Amiruddin no longer belong to a major coalition in GE15.
"I respect Amiruddin as the incumbent MP and a veteran in politics, but he is no longer in the government," he said.
Hasmuni said that before Harapan became the government, BN had made Kubang Pasu as the "engine" for northern economic development, through the Special Border Economic Zone project in Bukit Kayu Hitam.
However, he added, the initiative was stopped during the months when Harapan and PN were helming the government.
"It was like time had stopped there," he said.
Meanwhile, Amiruddin, when asked about the Mahathir factor in Kubang Pasu, believed that it would remain an important aspect of GE15.
However, he did not dismiss that Mahathir's influence and aura may have been split into several segments.
He also believed that certain quarters had been going around selling Mahathir's name to woo voters, especially those who are not up to date with the country's political development.
"They (Pejuang's rivals) claimed that Mahathir is with their party. That is their trick to get votes," he said.
He said the younger generation may also not be aware of the visions Mahathir had carried for Malaysia, like the famed Vision 2020.
"Among the older generation, yes, Mahathir is still influential, although they may have been split but the sentiment remains.
"If their sentiment is still with Mahathir and they do not know me, they would ask - Mahathir is backing who?," said Amiruddin, who won Kubang Pasu with 13,009 majority votes.
Amiruddin, who is also Pejuang secretary-general, said there was also a strong signal that voters today no longer look at the party but focus on the individual capabilities of each candidate.
"If this is at play and would be the deciding factor during polling day, I believe I have an advantage.
"I think any incumbent would have an advantage, it depends on how we serve the people after receiving our mandate," he said.
Besides Amiruddin, Aizuddin and Hasmuni, another candidate who is contesting in Kubang Pasu is Ku Abd Rahman Ku Ismail from PN.
Malaysiakini had tried to reach him for his comments but is yet to receive a response as of press time. - Mkini
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