If the results of the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan election tell a story of BN and Perikatan Nasional’s landslide ending Pakatan Harapan’s eight-year hold on the state, the polling outcome for the Nilai seat offers a narrower and cautionary footnote.
With Malays making up less than half (46 percent) of the seat’s electorate against 30 percent Chinese and 20 percent Indian voters, the five-cornered fight for Nilai saw BN putting forth MCA’s Alan Lai, who eventually came in second with 30.4 percent of the vote.
DAP’s J Arul Kumar emerged victorious with 48.8 percent of the vote, allowing him to retain the seat for a fourth term, albeit with his majority shrinking steadily from 47.3 percent in 2018, 37.7 percent in 2023, and 18.3 percent this time.
However, the more revealing outcome was Berjasa’s gains. Its candidate, Zamani Ibrahim, who contested as the only “organised” Malay-Muslim option on the ballot, took 18 percent of the vote and finished ahead of Bersatu’s V Saravana Kumar.
The latter, like many of his fellow Bersatu hopefuls who contested under their own banner following tensions with PAS, lost his deposit after fetching just 718 votes or 2.2 percent of the vote share, among a voter turnout of 71.3 percent (32,753 voters).
The split suggests that the “Malay unity” narrative espoused by the BN-PN alliance throughout the campaign period may have achieved its goals in terms of electoral success, while also producing more radical impacts.
Some unwilling to pick non-Malay candidate
As evidenced in Nilai, a slice of Malay voters might be unwilling to back a non-Malay candidate representing the pact, opting instead to cast their ballots for a Malay candidate - even if the latter faces a high chance of defeat.
Universiti Malaya’s Tawfik Yaakub posited a potential reason behind the voting outcome: some Malay-Muslim voters, including voters sympathetic to PAS or identity politics, backed Berjasa as it offered the clearest organised Malay-Muslim candidacy.
“The aggregate result does not prove that all Berjasa voters were PAS-aligned, nor was Zamani literally the only Muslim candidate, as an independent Malay candidate also contested,” he pointed out, referring to Omar Isa, who drew 167 votes.
“Some voters may simply have been protesting against all three major coalitions or responding to the candidate’s identity and campaign.”
The situation, the senior lecturer said, showed that beyond a party’s label, important considerations can also include candidate identity, religious representation, and local credibility.
He added that the results in Nilai also presented the most obvious demonstration of how the Bersatu logo failed to automatically attract Malay support when the party fielded a non-Malay candidate.
“(The results) also suggest that Bersatu’s Malay support is not deeply institutionalised and may previously have depended heavily on its association with PAS and the broader PN brand,” Tawfik contended.
ADSAn assessment of the seat’s contest could also offer implications beyond Bersatu, with political consultant Adib Zalkapli noting that Berjasa’s positioning as the ballot’s clearest Malay-Muslim option offers BN a tactical lesson of its own.
The Viewfinder Global Affairs managing director said that at the next general election, BN may consider fielding more Malay-Muslim candidates from its linchpin, Umno, in seats it had traditionally ceded to coalition partners MCA or MIC.
‘Bersatu a spent force’
Beyond Nilai, the analysts’ read on Bersatu’s overall standing was even less forgiving, with Azmil Tayeb from Universiti Sains Malaysia not mincing his words in describing the party as a “spent force” that faces an uphill task in recovering from its “devastating losses”.
Asserting that Bersatu’s trajectory towards irrelevance can be attributed to how it lacks mobilising capacity and enduring loyalty from its supporters, Azmil linked the party’s Negeri Sembilan outing to its earlier poor performance at the Johor election.
During the July 11 Johor polls, which resulted in a landslide victory for BN, Bersatu lost deposits in 10 of the 16 seats it contested under the PN banner.
Azmil framed Bersatu’s repeated losses as evidence of the same underlying shift among Malay voters consolidating around other parties, arguing that it depicted a “surging Malay wave” that could repeat across Malay-majority seats in upcoming elections.
Adib further noted that Bersatu has been significantly weakened by the departure of its MPs and senior leaders, most of whom have then joined Wawasan Negara, helmed by former Bersatu deputy president Hamzah Zainudin, who is also the opposition leader in Parliament.
With Bersatu’s diminished leadership costing the party experienced figures and organisational depth, Adib said rebuilding from such shortcomings would require time and resources, factors which he doubted the party would have enough of before the 16th general election is called.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali, however, insisted that despite the scale of Bersatu’s losses thus far, its apparent debilitated state at the moment can be attributed to “conflict and division” that is not beyond resolution under party president Muhyiddin Yassin’s leadership.
“I am confident that with Muhyiddin’s experienced leadership, the party will be able to rise again in the future,” he said.
On the other hand, Tawfik said Bersatu should instead aim to renew its leadership as part of efforts to establish a political identity that is not entirely dependent on Muhyiddin’s “legacy”, or its former control of the federal government.
Acknowledging that the party had “suffered an electoral collapse” in Negeri Sembilan, Tawfik said that while it may be premature to describe Bersatu as a “completely spent force” nationally, a redemption path would require more than a change in campaign strategy.
Besides shouldering the task of resolving its strained relationship with PAS and Wawasan, Tawfik cautioned that without a renewal that includes resolving its ties with PN allies, Bersatu risks becoming a spoiler capable of dividing votes, but unable to win seats.
This, he added, is especially so after the Negeri Sembilan election showed that the party no longer has a monopoly over Malay voters seeking an alternative to Umno.
“The Negeri Sembilan election does not necessarily mark the immediate death of Bersatu, but it does show that the party is facing an existential struggle for relevance within Malay opposition politics,” he said.
On which party Bersatu’s disillusioned supporters could instead support, Tawfik detailed a segmented map: PAS for voters wanting “a clearer ideological and religious identity” backed by grassroots discipline, and Wawasan for Malay nationalists uncomfortable with PAS’ Islamist orientation.
Umno, he added, may also regain pragmatic voters who prioritise stability, governmental access, and electoral viability. - Mkini
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