Marginal seats a key bargaining chip in Melaka seat swap talks

 An analyst says BN is likely to remain adamant about getting 21 seats, but it may agree to give up some it won narrowly in 2021 in exchange for seats won by PN on similarly thin margins.

Melaka may be the next battleground, but a tie-up between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional is not a sure thing yet. (Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA:

Constituencies previously won on small margins are likely to be the bargaining chips in any seat-swapping deal between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the Melaka election.

Hisommudin Bakar.

In such a scenario, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said BN has the upper hand because it already holds more seats and has stronger grassroots machinery, but PN has more to gain.

For the record, BN has announced that it is prepared to extend its cooperation with PN ahead of the Melaka polls, but a pact between the two sides is not a done deal yet.

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has stated that his coalition is still open to talks with other political groups, including Pakatan Harapan (PH), for a tie-up in Melaka.

Such a deal, he said, could include seat swaps between parties.

Hisommudin told FMT there is little chance that PN will get everything it asks for in talks with BN.

“BN would not want to give up the seats where it has traditionally had more support, especially in the constituencies it considers safe,” he said.

Hisommudin said that while BN is likely to remain adamant about getting 21 seats, it may agree to give up some of the seats it won narrowly in 2021 in exchange for seats won by PN on similarly thin margins.

For instance, he said, BN could give up Serkam, where Umno won by only 79 votes in 2021.

In return, he said, BN could ask PN for either Bemban or Sungai Udang. PN won the two seats by larger majorities of 530 and 328 votes, respectively, in the last state polls.

Free for all

Given that there were no formal pacts then, each of the three coalitions — BN, PN and PH — fielded candidates in all 28 constituencies in the 2021 election.

BN took 21 seats to win a mandate to form the government. However, Rembia assemblyman Jailani Khamis later left Umno to join PAS.

The seat was not declared vacant for a by-election because the anti-hopping law was not yet in place at the time.

The multi-cornered fights meant that many seats were closely contested, particularly in Malay-majority areas. Many were eventually won by margins of fewer than 1,000 votes.

They included Pengkalan Batu (131-vote majority), Duyong (200), Tanjung Bidara (364), Gadek (559), Durian Tunggal (559), Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827) and Rembia (860).

Winnable PH-held seat

Hisommudin expects BN and PN to be pragmatic in their negotiations, taking into account factors that could ensure victory, including candidate strength, local machinery and the party’s history in a constituency.

“Ultimately, the key consideration is who has the best chance of winning a particular seat,” he said.

With such considerations in mind, BN could make way for PAS in Bukit Katil, the seat that has been held by Amanah vice-president and former Melaka chief minister Adly Zahari since 2018.

Adly retained the seat by a 1,057-vote majority in a three-way fight in the 2021 polls. He beat his nearest rival from BN by 1,057 votes. Nonetheless, PN’s Muhammad Al Afiz Yahya came away with a respectable 3,715 votes.

PAS held the seat from 2013 to 2018, when it was known as Bukit Baru.

PN unlikely to get 14 seats

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia believes PN is likely to stake its claim to 14 seats based on the three Melaka parliamentary seats it won in the 2022 general election: Masjid Tanah, Tangga Batu and Jasin.

BN does not have any parliamentary seats in Melaka.

“Masjid Tanah and Jasin have five state seats each while Tangga Batu has four. That would potentially give PN a claim over 14 of 28 seats,” she said.

However, Syaza said most of the state seats under these three parliamentary constituencies are traditional Umno strongholds, which BN would be very unwilling to surrender.

She therefore expected a compromise to be reached, rather than “a wholesale redrawing based on the 2022 parliamentary map” if PN could have its way.

On the other hand, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said PN had little to offer BN in Melaka, particularly PAS, which only holds the Rembia seat because Jailani crossed over from Umno.

“The problem is, what can PAS give?” Mazlan said. “If they want to work together, BN will have to sacrifice more.”

In 2021, Bersatu won the Sungai Udang and Bemban state seats for PN. Bemban assemblyman Dr Yadzil Yaakub later joined Wawasan, after he was sacked by Bersatu. - FMT