Youth swing, PN disunity boost Umno’s chances in Johor

 State Umno leaders note growing youth support amid opposition disunity, but analysts say multi-cornered contests for seats may affect election’s outcome.

In 2022, Barisan Nasional won 40 of the 56 seats in the Johor state assembly, up from 19 in 2018, while Pakatan Harapan secured 12 seats and Perikatan Nasional three. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

 Johor Umno leaders say the party, strengthened by growing unity, is gaining renewed support among young voters, even as its rivals struggle with strained ties.

Pulai Umno division chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed said ground observations suggest that infighting within Bersatu and wider instability in Perikatan Nasional may have shifted perceptions among Malay voters.

Nur Jazlan Mohamed.

He said Johor’s economic growth under menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi has also reinforced the party’s appeal.

“Social media comments have been reasonable. Onn Hafiz’s policies have been consistent and on point. Young Malays can feel the economic improvements in Johor,” he told FMT.

“That is why Malay voters are returning. Non-Malay voters are not coming out strongly for BN yet, but they are also not motivated to vote for PN.”

Nur Jazlan acknowledged Umno’s “collapse” in 2018 was due to national issues, including the 1MDB scandal, but said confidence was gradually returning.

Noor Azleen Ambros.

Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambros said the party’s position at the head of the state government gave it an edge, citing the RM100 billion in foreign investment secured last year as evidence of an effective administration.

“It proves the effectiveness of Umno’s administration in driving the state’s economic development,” he said.

In the 2022 state election, Barisan Nasional won 40 of the 56 seats in the Johor state assembly, up from 19 in 2018, with Pakatan Harapan securing 12 seats, and PN three.

The next Johor state election is due by June 2027.

Political analyst Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said that while Johor Umno leaders may see renewed support, uncertainties remain, including as to the potential viability of a revived Parti Keluarga Malaysia and ongoing tensions within PKR.

“Umno is now seen as more stable and open to reconciliation, with previously suspended or sacked leaders such as Khairy Jamaluddin and Hishammuddin Hussein returning,” he said.

However, Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia warned that Umno’s confidence appeared to be primarily driven by its rivals’ weaknesses.

Syaza Shukri.

“Many point to Johor as an Umno stronghold, but that should be questioned if we look at GE15. The challenge is overconfidence.

“In multi-cornered fights, it will not be an easy win for Umno,” she said, referring to a likely contest between BN, PH and PN, as Umno looks to defend its 40 seats, while Amanah and PKR eye 20 and 28 seats, respectively.

Syaza said Umno’s “rumah bangsa” concept suggested flexibility in alliances, raising questions about whether the party is looking to distance itself from PH or work with PN.

“These possibilities suggest that the strategy is still unclear,” she said. - FMT