Let the games begin

 

Although there has long been speculation that a general election will soon be called, most political parties have not yet completed their candidate lists. Some parties are finding it difficult to field candidates, as candidates must fund much of their campaign by themselves.

However, within Umno, infighting among division heads for candidacy has been reported, as one term as an MP provides a lifelong pension.

There are also rumours of some surprises in the Umno candidates’ list, with some new faces presented. DAP is also rumoured to be presenting more Malay candidates this time.

Some ministers, among them Khairy Jamaluddin, may contest in a different seat.

Party alignments are also making candidate selections more difficult. Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman’s youth party Muda may be forced to go it alone, while Gerakan’s alignment with Perikatan Nasional has not yet resulted in seat allocations.

It is very likely there will be two- and even three-cornered fights between Umno, PN and Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Pejuang parties.

With fragmented voting, it will be possible that some candidates could win seats with only 30% of the aggregate vote.

The youth vote is another unknown. However, based upon the Johor voting pattern, the 2.6 million new voters will vote along similar lines as other demographics. The major issue here may be the apathy of youth voters, who may be hesitant to turn out on voting day.

The general election, called in the current circumstances, appears to be opportunistic for Umno. This may put off many from voting, leading to a low turnout. Social media is full of angry comments that elections have been called amid flooding.

A low voter turnout would not be surprising. This would most likely benefit Umno.

Pakatan Harapan must develop the right narratives to motivate people to come out and vote. This is what the logistical side of their campaign must focus upon. The more voters PH gets out, the closer will be the results. Otherwise, most likely the election will be an Umno onslaught.

Zahid appears to be in control

The calling of an early election makes it appear that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is firmly in control. Holding the election after his court acquittal will allow Zahid to strongly influence who will be the next attorney-general with the power to drop criminal charges.

A strong Umno showing would increase the possibility that Najib Razak, who is serving a 12-year jail term in Kajang prison, will be given a pardon during the term of the new Parliament.

The real political manoeuvrings will occur after the elections.

It’s unlikely any single political party will hold a simple majority within the Dewan Rakyat after the election. So fierce negotiations will go on to form a new coalition government. The prime determinant of negotiating strength will be the seats won by the respective parties.

Umno will be in prime position and may negotiate with either PN or DAP to form a government, together with GPS in Sarawak and GRS in Sabah.

This general election could see the demise of Bersatu and the decimation of Pejuang, finally ending Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s long political career. Muda will produce lacklustre performance. PKR may possibly lose a third of its seats, while DAP may find some electoral pushback, although it will lose very few seats. In contrast, GPS in Sarawak may be strengthened, and Warisan sent back to Sabah.

Perhaps the legacy of GE15 will be a changing of guard with many long-standing political leaders retiring. DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang has announced his retirement, while many others will also go by choice or by the voters’ choice.

There will be many surprises coming. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.