Perak to be a gateway for Harapan into Malay heartlands

 

Riding on a wave of dissent against former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak - and with support from Dr Mahathir Mohamad-led Bersatu - Pakatan Harapan laid siege on BN's Malay heartland strongholds in the 2018 general election.

With quirks in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system benefiting them, Harapan made considerable gains against BN, in Johor and Perak particularly, and won Putrajaya.

But support from the rural Malay community was short-lived and had clearly eroded by the time of the Tanjong Piai by-election in 2019.

This was further compounded when Bersatu exited the coalition during the Sheraton Move - and the split in Malay heartland votes allowed Umno-BN to capitalise on multi-cornered fights and snatch two-thirds majorities in the Malacca and Johor state elections.

These heartland seats - usually rural and more conservative than Harapan's urban strongholds - are vital if the coalition wants any chance at retaking Putrajaya - or at least be able to thwart BN from securing a majority on its own.

But with no new allies to appeal to this voter base, Harapan appears to be revisiting an old strategy that had produced remarkable results - a high-stakes charge focused on a single state.

DAP had used this strategy - which involved fielding party heavyweights like veteran Lim Kit Siang - to great success in Johor during the 2013 polls, expanding its Parliament seat count in the state from just one to four. This also laid the foundation for Harapan's success in capturing Johor in 2018.

For the forthcoming 15th general election, that single state is Perak - which Harapan state chief Nga Kor Ming called the coalition's frontline for the polls.

The targets are the 11 seats BN won in 2018 - of which three are now with Bersatu - and the sole seat that Bersatu won in Perak that year.

With the exception of Tapah, these seats are predominantly Malay and mostly rural.

Perak Harapan chief Nga Kor Ming

DAP is expected to make a high-stakes foray to prove it is not anti-Malay by fielding its former youth chief Howard Lee in Gerik, a seat where only 14 percent of voters are Chinese.

The state coalition is also pushing for Harapan chief Anwar Ibrahim to contest in Tambun and lead the charge in Perak.

Nga envisions Perak as a key state to solidify Harapan's presence on the West Coast - from which Harapan will expand back into Johor, and eastward into Pahang.

Harapan had already won Perak twice - in 2008 and 2018 - but improving on this and increasing its influence will require the coalition to break into the state's Malay heartlands, which will be a very tall order.

Academician Serina Rahman - who has been focusing on rural Malaysian politics for the past seven years - said one major obstacle was that Harapan's messaging and ideals simply don't resonate outside the Klang Valley or urban areas.

"The Malay heartlands are made up of folks who seem to fear a lot of things and Harapan doesn't provide a salve to those fears. Fear of a loss of Malay dominance, royalty, Islam... there is a total disconnect (with Harapan's agenda).

"Things like equity, solving corruption - which many feel is just a given and really has nothing much to do with them as it's an elitist issue - and such just don't resonate.

"People just want to know that the economy will get better and that they will be able to earn enough to get by, and hopefully, have savings and so on," Serina told Malaysiakini.

To make matters worse, she said that Harapan's 22 months in power was also perceived by this voter base as having made matters on the ground worse - which leads to even more fear of the coalition.

As for fielding Anwar in a heartland seat, the National University of Singapore (NUS) Southeast Asian Studies Department lecturer said this may not have the desired impact for Harapan either.

The PKR president's gift of the gab and idealism may wow and inspire his supporters in urban areas - but Serina said it was also part of Harapan's disconnect from rural Malays.

PKR president Anwar Ibrahim

"Anwar's lofty speech is hard for heartland folks to follow. They need politicians who speak simply and speak to their needs.

"Much of the discussions on macro issues and so on just don't make sense to them, and they are not interested," she said.

Serina said that Anwar's popularity outside urban areas also had suffered from years of propaganda.

"There is some kind of mistrust. I think the people are quite susceptible to the propaganda that BN has put out all these years, and there is conditioning so they remember the bad stories and have their doubts," she said.

Fixing the disconnect doesn't just require a change in messaging for Harapan but also requires a more active presence on the ground, according to Serina.

However, she said it may already be too late to do this as voters are frustrated that it takes an election for politicians to show up and hand out goodies or fulfil neglected promises.

"I think this approach doesn't really work anymore. People are wiser," she said.

Voter apathy, floods

But what might ultimately work against Harapan in this general election, she said, is voter apathy.

"People are frustrated and the possibility of floods is highly worrying. It's already flooding in so many parts of Malaysia, and every day there are warnings (of severe rain) from the Meteorological Department.

"These things weigh heavily on people's minds, as well as the state of inflation, economy and depreciating ringgit.

"Even though politicians promise otherwise, people are better able to see through the veil - on both sides of the political divide," Serina said.

This, Serina added, could lead to poor voter turnout - which would be of advantage to Umno, for its hardcore supporters would be more motivated to cast their ballots.

Harapan will be holding a convention in Perak tomorrow, where several key announcements in regard to the election will be made - including the division of seats among the coalition and its allies. - Mkini