The real fight is between Harapan and Umno

 

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

- George Santayana

When one reduces all the complexities of the forthcoming 15th general elections, it simply boils down to a battle between Pakatan Harapan and Umno Baru, with Umno having a sharp edge given their traditional strong links with the dominant parties in Sarawak, and perhaps Sabah.

For Harapan to have a fighting chance against the well-oiled machinery that is Umno and their advantage in the Borneo states, they have to first win the battle in the peninsula to emerge victorious in the war.

Here, it’s a straight fight between them and Umno - MCA and MIC are little parties within Barisan Nasional who are more for show rather than substance. They, headed by sycophants who care nothing for their race but their own welfare, provide a veneer of multiracialism to an extremist party whose avowed aim and mission in life is ‘ketuanan Melayu’ or Malay supremacy.

Umno may have to compromise with PAS which typically commands as much as 30 percent of Malay support for some seats but Umno’s differences with Bersatu are too deep. Umno is likely to go for broke and split with Bersatu, and have some accommodation with PAS.

Harapan’s only hope is a very strong showing in the peninsula and to make some kind of accommodation with Sabah and Sarawak allies to clinch a majority of parliamentary seats. Difficult but not impossible.

This is where the catch comes. There will be increasing pressure for Harapan to wheel and deal, to make arrangements with smaller, even mosquito parties, to “increase” their chances of winning. But if they accede, it will be an unmitigated disaster. Here’s why.

Harapan must remain true to its component parties - PKR, DAP and Amanah. These form the core of the coalition and the right representatives from these parties are the ones most likely to remain loyal to their respective parties in the event of victory.

What happened before after they were less than two years in power must never be allowed to happen. The only way to ensure that is to ensure that in the peninsula, it is the three parties and only these three parties who put up their candidates for GE15.

Path to power

Why does everyone who is not a part of the Umno/PAS axis want to become part of Harapan or desire to make an electoral deal with them? The simple answer is that they want to be part of the power that rules. Without Harapan, they have no way - absolutely no way - of getting there, or even of winning seats.

If they wanted to help in the formation of a viable, multiracial opposition, the easiest thing to do is to support the Harapan coalition which is already there and which has a team of experienced politicians instead of asking them for favours and handouts to those who are often less qualified, dubious or plain opportunistic.

P Waytha Moorthy, a politician ever on the lookout for an opportunity, who peddles some Indian support for influence, complained that he can’t get an electoral pact with Harapan. But why would Harapan want to make a pact with him?

He who was chosen as minister in the Mahathir Round 2 cabinet via the senator route when many PKR candidates were excluded from the cabinet? Besides, Harapan has many Indian MPs, several times that of MIC.

Likewise, Mahathir and his pathetic Pejuang are angling for some kind of pact with Harapan to stay relevant instead of being destroyed at GE15. Why should Harapan oblige? Hasn’t he caused more than enough damage, being the one most responsible for losing power after winning GE14?

And apparently even Bersatu, among the terrible traitors which include Mahathir, Muhyiddin Yassin and Azmin Ali, is courting a pact with Harapan if things do not work out for them in the continuing feud with Umno.

Meantime, Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and his Muda want a deal with Harapan too. They have nothing to offer Harapan except what they say is support from the youth. But PKR, DAP and Amanah all have youth wings and they have enough young, capable leaders to step up.

If somebody forms a party for women, and someone else a party for the older folks, and they say they can get support from these important groups, should Harapan also accommodate and give them seats? What happens to those leaders eager to serve within Harapan itself?

Sheer folly

To repeat the mistakes of the past will be sheer folly - surely the recent past must have taught Harapan and its coalition partners a good lesson. If you allow those who have betrayed you back in and try and work with them, the odds are they will play you if a better opportunity materialises for them to rise quicker and faster.

The Harapan coalition simply needs to keep all its seats and be confident it can retain them from new-arrival would-be hoppers and others who could desert them at the drop of a songkok for a better deal. That is the only way it can maximise its bargaining power if there is a hung Parliament.

The more seats it gets under its own core of three components the better its bargaining power when it deals with parties from Sabah and Sarawak and the more it can offer them.

Once such a stance is obvious to the other parties, then it is easier for it to make arrangements with Sabah and Sarawak parties for mutual benefit ahead of GE15.

This time, Harapan should stay steadfast within the core three of PKR, DAP and Amanah, make deals in Sabah and Sarawak, and truly represent the multiracial, multi-religious and multi-dimensional interests of the diverse rakyat fairly.

Stick to the straight and narrow, Harapan. The people will appreciate it. - Mkini

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P GUNASEGARAM is a former editor for online and print news publications, head of equity research, and an independent writer and analyst.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.