Reprieve for Aminuddin sets ‘litmus test’ for PH-BN ties, says analyst

 Scepticism persists over whether the reprieve can hold, as leaders from both sides continue trading barbs despite the truce in the Negeri Sembilan political crisis.

Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Aminuddin Harun had faced an attempt by Umno assemblymen to oust him. However, BN and PH leaders have agreed on a truce until the state assembly sits again.

PETALING JAYA:

Although Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Aminuddin Harun has been granted a six-month reprieve in a tussle between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan, ties between the two coalitions face a litmus test over their ability to ease tensions, says an analyst.

Awang Azman Pawi.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said the period serves as a “political probation” to gauge how well the two coalitions can manage differences within the state government.

“If the six months pass smoothly, it will strengthen belief that the PH-BN formula can last until the next general election (GE16). If it fails, it will signal that state-level fissures could spread to the federal level,” he told FMT.

Aminuddin had faced an attempt to oust him by 14 Umno assemblymen who withdraw their support for the menteri besar. However, Umno’s national leadership stood by the party’s partnership with PH, with the two parties later agreeing to defer the state assembly sitting.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid.

Political analyst Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said that six months is the maximum time allowed under the constitution before the state assembly must sit or be dissolved for an election.

“The six-month window is merely a temporary reprieve from a rift that could disrupt the state government,” he said. “It amounts to sweeping the problem under the carpet rather than addressing it.”

A PH insider told FMT that Aminuddin’s position was “safe” for at least six months following the agreement between PH and Umno to defer the state assembly sitting, thus preventing any immediate attempt to unseat Aminuddin, a PKR vice-president.

Aminuddin could still face a no-confidence motion or defeat on a government bill once the assembly reconvenes.

‘Fragile’ window

Despite PH and BN leaders declaring that the crisis had been resolved, tensions remain, with leaders continuing to trade barbs.

DAP national adviser Lim Guan Eng recently labelled Umno and BN untrustworthy and urged voters to reject them at the next general election, citing the withdrawal of support for Aminuddin by the 14 Umno assemblymen.

His remarks drew a rebuke from Umno vice-president Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail, who said such comments were unhelpful and warned against provoking further tensions.

Both Awang Azman and Fauzi described the six-month window as fragile, given the public clashes among unity government leaders.

“At best, PH and BN may reach an electoral understanding not to contest against each other, while still using their own symbols,” Fauzi said.

He added that the crisis has strained ties, with Umno assemblymen in Negeri Sembilan appearing to favour working with Perikatan Nasional for GE16 over DAP.

Awang Azman said the window was a political ceasefire rather than a path to lasting stability. He attributed its fragility to misaligned interests between state and federal leaders, as well as unchecked public attacks among coalition partners.

“With GE16 approaching, parties will prioritise survival over unity. The window may hold only if both sides see stability as a strategic national asset, not a temporary compromise,” he said. - FMT