Pakatan Harapan and BN have been at loggerheads in the run-up to the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, fuelling speculation that their often uneasy, love-hate partnership at both the federal and state levels may be reaching breaking point.
Yet, despite the increasingly sharp exchanges between leaders of the two coalitions, political observers and analysts remain unconvinced that the public hostility reflects an irreparable split.
Instead, some see it as little more than electoral positioning ahead of the polls, rather than the beginning of the end for the Madani coalition.
"BN, particularly Umno, has strong organisational and historical advantages in Johor, while Negeri Sembilan has also become increasingly competitive.
"Contesting independently allows each coalition to preserve its own identity, mobilise its traditional support base and maximise bargaining power.
"For BN, appearing too closely aligned with Harapan carries costs among parts of its core Malay electorate, while Harapan also has to reassure supporters who remain uneasy about working with Umno," said Universiti Malaya academician, Khoo Ying Hooi.
While not totally dismissing the possibility of Harapan and BN ending their cooperation, she said it is certainly not definite, especially given the fluidity of Malaysia's politics post-2018 general election.
Grassroots pressure
Sharing a similar sentiment, political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the hardline position taken by Harapan and BN is a reflection of the pressure the coalitions are facing from their grassroots members.
He said BN, especially Umno, has to convince its core support group - the Malays and Muslims - that the party is not under Harapan and DAP's shadow.
On the other side, Harapan also needs to show its “reformasi” supporters that it has not merely become an auxiliary to BN, he added.
"That is why their campaign rhetoric has become increasingly hardline: each side is seeking to defend its political dignity, party brand and bargaining position ahead of the next general election," said Awang Azman, who is a professor of Malay Studies at UM.
According to him, Harapan and BN have to project distinct images from one another during the election campaign, so they have to keep a political distance and carry out selective attacks to appear different.
Break up to make up
However, Awang Azman noted that the Johor polls would serve as a crucial test of the Harapan-BN relationship.
He said a strong BN showing could strengthen its hand and widen the power imbalance between the two coalitions, while a better-than-expected performance by Harapan would bolster its bargaining position in future negotiations.
Meanwhile, three other experts contacted by Malaysiakini forecast Harapan and BN to replicate the cooperation they forged after the 2022 general election in the next national polls.
Political observer Oh Ei Sun believed the two coalitions would focus on winning as many seats as possible with a plan to form a ruling coalition afterwards.
This, he said, is because no single political party or coalition is likely to command an outright parliamentary majority.
"So there will be neither entrenched animosity nor engrossed love among them.
"So it’s all about marriages of political convenience to attain and hold on to ruling power. No hard feelings one way or the other," said the Pacific Research Center Malaysia principal adviser.
Ensuring political stability
International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Syaza Shukri pointed out that the unity government comprising Harapan, BN and other parties was formed not on the basis of a shared ideology, but to ensure political stability.
It is natural for the parties to go back to their status quo and fight each other in elections, she said.
"But after the elections, if there is no strong majority, I won't be surprised if they work together again for the same reason.
"This is the reality of Malaysia's post-election coalitions that we have today," she told Malaysiakini.
On the same note, Azizuddin Sani of Universiti Utara Malaysia said: "It's normal during an election. Once it's over, they'll make up again.
"The reality is they're fighting for the people. So, with the intention of developing the country, even those who previously refused to work with DAP will end up cooperating with it." - Mkini
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