Attempt at power grab in Selangor likely?

Malaysian politics is once again titillated by the prospect of a change of government in Selangor.

Is this a case where some Ali, Ah Chong or Muthu started off some facetious WhatsApp rumour? Or is it more a case of no smoke without a fire?

Menteri Besar Azmin Ali’s warm welcome at KLIA could suggest either - that the Selangor state government is indeed strong and united, or that things are so bad that some quarters decided some manufactured show of loyalty was necessary.

I can’t pretend to have any insider insight, but I suppose we can speculate as private citizens as to how Malaysia’s overall present political dynamics may affect this current drama.

This two-part series examines the factors encouraging an attempted takeover, why PAS thinks it’s a good idea, and why Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is happily egging them along.

I anticipate that unless those trying to grab power come very close to success, it may seem to the general public that they never tried at all, as no one likes to publicise failure.

Najib and Hadi - no coincidence

Rumours circulating on WhatsApp and such, however specific, are probably not worth all that much.

What is a little more intriguing is the near simultaneous statements by Prime Minister Najib Razak PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, hinting that something could go down in Selangor.

Now, saying something doesn’t make it so (think Anwar Ibrahim and Sept 16). A lot of times people try to ‘say’ things into reality - creating hype that eventually becomes real (think... well, Anwar and Sept 16).

That said, these two statements emerging when they do cannot be considered pure coincidence. It seems reasonable to assume that there have indeed been coordinated thoughts between Umno and PAS concerning the potential takeover of Selangor.

Given the manner in which Hadi basically doubled down on Umno during the recent muktamar (a sentiment thankfully not exactly shared by his deputy Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man), it would come as no surprise that Hadi might be interested in a joint takeover of Selangor.

The carrots Hadi chases

Such a takeover will probably be seen by Hadi as benefiting PAS. He will perhaps calculate that PAS’taking over of Selangor (as PAS will have the most number of seats in the new coalition at 13) can be touted as a victory for PAS on a number of levels.

Firstly, it will be the first major expansion of PAS’ political power and influence since the Amanah split. Hadi could thus sell the takeover as an important vindication of his leadership, and proof that PAS post-Amanah under his leadership is growing in stature, rather than diminished in any way.

Secondly, Hadi perhaps thinks that he can use Selangor as a showcase and positive example - especially to peninsular non-Muslims - of what PAS’ stewardship of an ethnically and religiously diverse state would be like. I imagine he would be mistaken in this, but that is merely my view.

Thirdly, the Selangor state government is Malaysia’s crown jewel as far as well-resourced state governments go. Whoever controls Selangor’s resources is in a position to dish out massive amounts of patronage, and PAS has never been exactly rolling in cash.

40 for 9/16, three for Perak, only two for Selangor

The other primary factor that suggests why an attempted takeover seems so attractive is simple mathematics.

Some say Anwar nearly succeeded in his Sept 16 bid. In order to do so, he would have needed to convert some 30 to 40 BN MPs.

The current breakdown of seats in Selangor is Pakatan Harapan - DAP (14), PKR (13), Amanah (two), totalling 29; PAS (13), Umno (12), Independents (two), totalling 27.

The two Independents are Khalid Ibrahim and Loh Chee Heng - both of whom were unceremoniously fired from their respective Pakatan Harapan parties (PKR and DAP), and cannot be expected to bear them much love.

Assuming the two independents stand against Pakatan Harapan, a PAS-Umno coalition would only need the support of an additional two assemblypersons to form a new government.

This is one less than was required to topple Perak’s Pakatan Rakyat government in 2009.

Bigger stakes than Perak

Pakatan Harapan’s present majority (almost literally) thus couldn’t be any thinner.

The practice of buying and selling politicians is certainly not new to Malaysians.

In Perak 2009, the stakes were arguably considerably lower - the state in question was not nearly as rich; there were no general elections around the corner; and whatever the result, Pakatan Rakyat as a whole was in no way at risk.

In Selangor 2017, we have the richest state in the federation, general elections less than a year away, and opposition unity as a whole teetering near the brink of collapse.

If certain parties were willing to (successfully) bring sufficient resources to bear in Perak 2009, one assumes that much and more can be spent to meet certain objectives in Selangor 2017. It’s just great bang for one’s buck.

The palace factor

Let us also briefly consider the palace, which played a significant role in Selangor’s last political crisis.

My read of Selangor palace politics suggests that there is no love lost between the sultan and Azmini.

The sultan was likely none too fond of the shenanigans that caused the last change of leadership in Selangor.

True impartiality is hard to achieve; but in this case, suffice it to say that - indeed, in accordance with the principles of constitutional monarchy - the sultan is not likely to intervene or prevent Azmin or Pakatan Harapan from losing power merely out of any sentimental attachment to the latter.

I don’t think the sultan has any particularly strong preference for PAS or Umno, but should they achieve the legal majority necessary to change the government, that question is largely moot anyway.

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NATHANIEL TAN has recently been reflecting on the best ways to deal with betrayal.- Mkini