Several political analysts believe there is a “very low” likelihood of PKR state assemblypersons withdrawing support from Selangor Menteri Besar Azmin Ali, neither is it likely that PAS is approaching Azmin’s predecessor Abdul Khalid Ibrahim to replace him.
Certain elements within Selangor PAS may harbour such ideas, but Merdeka Center programme director Ibrahim Suffian said it was hard to imagine the practicality of such a move - getting PAS assemblypersons to collaborate with Umno to form a new state government.
“This opens the way for Parti Amanah Negara to cover their positions in the government if such a gambit fails. I doubt PAS will take such a gamble given how close we are to the general election,” Ibrahim told Malaysiakini.
He also believes it is unlikely that state representatives from PKR would resort to defection from the party.
“The bunch of state assemblypersons PKR has in Selangor is of better quality than leaders in other states, in the past, which were prone to defections.
“I think the selection of candidates in the 2013 general election delivered individuals of higher commitment and are less likely to defect."
Penang Institute’s head of political and social analysis Wong Chin Huat, on the other hand, pointed to the collectively small number should political cooperation be indeed formed among PAS, Umno and the state’s independent candidates.
“If this happens, Azmin would surely seek dissolution, it would then be in the sultan's hand.
“What we can be sure is the public would be enraged. This would unite the opposition and confirm without a doubt that PAS is ‘barua Umno’ (Umno’s lackey).
As a result, Wong believes that anti-Barisan Nasional voters who had deserted the opposition would return to the latter. This would lead to BN’s reduced chances of winning in the next general election.
“I don’t think the possibility is high. (Prime Minister) Najib (Abdul Razak) would remember Perak.
The 2009 constitutional crisis in Perak began after three then-Pakatan Rakyat state assemblypersons defected. The then Perak ruler refused former menteri besar Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin’s request to dissolve the state assembly.
With the defected assemblypersons, BN then formed a new state government.
‘Sultan’s nod may be crucial’
Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng on the other hand believes that the move could be possible.
Although there is a 50 percent likelihood, Khoo however pointed out that the sultan’s nod may be crucial.
As for the PKR state representatives, despite the possibility, Khoo noted that it would be a suicidal move to make, right before the general election.
“Or they may plan to cash out from politics,” he quipped.
He however believes that the move may not become a reality due to the situation in Selangor PAS itself.
“Some (PAS representatives) may refrain, especially those who face tough seats,” he said.
Speculation had arisen after a message circulating on WhatsApp claimed that two independent assemblypersons and four PKR assemblypersons were part of a delegation who were at the Selangor palace on Wednesday.
PKR's Batu 3 assemblyperson Rodziah Ismail, Sementa assemblyperson Daroyah Ali and Ijok state representative Idris Ahmad however denied that they were defecting.
Apart from the three, Kota Anggerik state assemblyperson Yaakob Sapari was also named in the message.
Former Selangor menteri besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim did not respond to claims that he was part of the delegation. His aide, Faekah Husin, denied that Khalid was involved.
“The sultan is still overseas - he’s in London,” Faekah told Malaysiakini.
Khalid, meanwhile, declined to comment on claims that he was approached by PAS to be the new menteri besar.
Pakatan Harapan currently has 29 state assemblypersons in Selangor, with 14 from the DAP, 13 from PKR and two from Parti Amanah Negara. PAS, on the other hand, has 13 state representatives while Umno has 12.
Together with two independent assemblypersons (Khalid and Teluk Datuk state assemblyperson Loh Chee Heng), a coalition between PAS and Umno needs at least two assemblypersons to come on board to form a new government.
Selangor state executive councillor Elizabeth Wong however dismissed rumours on possible snap polls in Selangor.
The Bukit Lanjan state assemblyperson was responding to claims that early polls will be held in the state following the PAS muktamar's decision to sever ties with PKR.- Mkini
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