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Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Saudi Hang Rope



Saudisation policy creates "expat exodus", drop in foreign investment
locals don't want expat jobs — creating real problem for economy
capital outflows 2017 at $101b, 15% of GDP

Crown Prince portrayed himself moderniser 
struggling to turn country's financial fortunes 
economy suffering crisis of confidence

kingdom experiencing plunge in foreign investment 
high levels of capital outflow 

MBS unrealistic economic plans creates uncertainty 
struggle to fill private sector jobs 
growing exodus of expats
by April more than 800,000 expats left (since 2016)
foreigners cannot be easily replaced

Saudis in undemanding state jobs — 2/3 of employment 
authorities want 450,000 openings for Saudis in private sector by 2020

MBS expedited exodus of expats (1/3 of population)
  • levies on employing non-Saudis
  • foreigners to pay fees for dependents
  • restricting sectors in which they can work
  • retail, service industries strictly confined to Saudis
  • measures driving expat exodus
  • downturn in rental real estate market, empty shopping malls.


Saudi business having difficulty getting locals to work 
In May 5,000 fines issued to businesses flouting Saudisation 

companies hiring Saudis, paying them small salaries "fake Saudisation" 

Saudi men and women lazy, not interested in working 
Saudi youth prefer stay at home 
young men, women not interested in finding job 
prefer to get paid for doing nothing

MBS to generate US$17.33b through new expat taxes 
to help budget deficit — US$52b in 2018 
foreigners' departure, loss of consumer spending  
send relatives home because of fees on dependents

Taxing expatriates putting cart before horse
will take decade or more to create working class Saudis 

MBS's hopes of saving public expenditure dim
ill-judged roundup of princes generated fraction of $100b target
shaking investor confidence

FDI slumped from US$7.5b in 2016 to $1.4 billion 2017,  14 year low
capital outflows in 2017 at $101b, 15% of GDP
capital flight contributed to decline in official reserves
businessmen shifting liquid assets abroad
business and FDI confidence in economy at low ebb

by Ambrose Carey, director at Alaco, London-based business-intel 


My comments :  

One Najib moron can sink 63 years of UMNO power. 
One Clown Prince in Saudi Arabia can sink 80 years of Saudi domination of Arabia. 
I think if this Clown Prince remains in power it will be the end of the Sauds. 

Saudisation, economic restructuring, reforming  is all just Saudi claptrap. 

Oil revenues have crashed. 
Saudi Arabia is bleeding billions in the foolish Yemen conflict. 
The public listing of Aramco is not going to happen. 
The Houthis are shooting missiles at Aramco's oil facilities.  

So they are short of funds. The Saudis need money. So this whole thing about expats is just to suck more money from their foreign workers.

Out of their 30 million population, over 10.4 million are expats who live and work in Saudi Arabia.  

"Saudi Arabia is 3rd ranked for having largest population of foreigners with 10.4 million expatriates"

So just this one sentence :   MBS to generate US$17.33b through new expat taxes 

summarises the whole story.  

Arent there huge similarities between Saudi Arabia and Malaysia?

Do read again. Lets  "Look and Learn".




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