Sungai Kandis - a litmus test for Zahid’s Umno?

The Sungai Kandis by-election may have been triggered by the unfortunate passing of its PKR assemblyperson Mat Shuhaimi Shafiei, but analysts believe it will serve as a timely indicator of the future of Opposition politics in Malaysia.

Set for Aug 4, the by-election comes hot on the heels of Umno’s own party polls, where Ahmad Zahid Hamidi emerged victorious in his bid to be president.

Thus, Sungai Kandis will be a barometer of the appeal of an Umno under the helm of the former deputy prime minister, political analyst Wong Chin Huat believes.

“Zahid needs to put up a good fight to prove his relevance.

“This is the first by-election after the 14th general election (GE14), and in the solidly Pakatan Harapan state of Selangor. It will be an indicator of the future political system, especially whether Umno can hold on to its support or whether PAS will absorb some of Umno’s supporters (should it contest),” Wong (photo) told Malaysiakini.

He predicts that Umno will suffer a drop in support in the election due to “the disappearing prospect of reform after the party election” - referring to Zahid’s win over contenders seen to be more “reformist” - former Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar and party veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Umno’s scandal-plagued former president Najib Abdul Razak, who will soon be on trial for corruption charges, would further push voters away, Wong said.

Will Umno and PAS work together?

Echoing this sentiment was think tank Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommuddin Bakar.

Aside from testing Umno’s popularity with voters, the by-election will also provide it with an opportunity to re-configure its working relationship with the remaining two BN allies - MCA and MIC - following the coalition’s disintegration after being thrown out of the government in GE14.

It will also provide a partnership opportunity for Umno and PAS.

“Will BN assist Umno Selangor’s machinery?

“It will also be interesting to observe PAS Selangor’s attitude towards this, and if the party will work together with Umno or if it will remain on its own,” Hisommuddin said.

Selangor Umno told Malaysiakini that it had yet to make any decision on contesting in the by-election, while PAS previously said it would only stand in a straight fight.

Last night, Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan (photo) suggested that Umno dumps the BN logo in favour Umno’s logo for the Sungai Kandis by-election.

"We need to transform Umno into a new product that is marketable, not stale. The same applies to BN, for we need a new recipe to attract support.

"Perhaps we can test the market in Sungai Kandis by contesting under Umno instead of BN. Is that agreeable?" Hasan had asked at a public forum.

With nomination day just 10 days away, only PKR has confirmed it will contest the seat but no candidate has been announced.

Lower voter turnout expected

Malay language daily Sinar Harian had speculated that the several names in the running to be PKR candidates are former Kota Anggerik assemblyperson Yaakob Sapari, Youth vice-president Mohd Radzlan Jalaluddin and one Mikael Eskandar.

Won by PKR in the last three elections and located in Selangor, where the party has a supermajority, Sungai Kandis is considered a safe seat for the Harapan component party.

UKM associate professor Faisal S Hazis, along with Wong and Hisommuddin, forecasts that PKR would retain the seat comfortably, but all three also warned that the voter turnout would be lower.

“Voters might think that this is a foregone conclusion, that PKR will win the seat, and this might affect voter turnout,” Faisal told Malaysiakini when contacted.

Wong predicts that voter turnout would be at a mere 70 percent - primarily because voters were aware that result of the by-election would not affect the balance of power in Selangor. -Mkini