Eight reasons to call Bersatu’s bluff on quit threat

So "the old man" seems to have cleverly out-foxed everybody in Pakatan Harapan and can choose when (2021? 2023?), if ever, to fulfil (or break) the promise of a power transition to Anwar Ibrahim.

Malaysiakini reported that while DAP and Amanah pressed Dr Mahathir Mohamad for a firm date to step down, it was Anwar who blinked, and backed away when faced with Bersatu’s threat to quit Harapan and bring the government crashing. 

Anwar, being a Muslim, has probably never played poker, otherwise, he may have called Bersatu’s bluff. They bet all their chips on destroying the Harapan government, but do they have a royal flush in hand?

In other words, do they have secret weapons to take that great leap into political uncertainty? There are eight reasons to doubt this:

1.) After such a hard-fought victory over "the kleptocrat" and "the handbag lady", will voters ever trust Bersatu again if they team up with those they had condemned for leading Malaysia towards bankruptcy? To be best buddies with Umno, whose president, Zahid Hamidi, faces 87 criminal charges related to corruption?

How can the old man be respected for ganging up with Umno, when he castigated their leaders as being “dumb and dumber”? In case you’ve forgotten, this is what he said during Bersatu’s extraordinary general meeting last July.

"To preserve his position, an Umno branch chief is not keen to allow others who are more capable to be members. The only ones who can join are those dumber than him. But one cannot live forever, so when this branch leader passes away, his successor will be even more stupid, until eventually, the branch becomes a dumb branch," said Mahathir. 

Can a man swallow back his spit with a straight face? At the next general election, how will voters treat his party?

2.) What will Bersatu’s position be in the new holy racial alliance of Umno and PAS, presumably bolstered with those from GPS? Will they end up as very junior partners at the mercy of Umno, or worse, PAS?

When the old man was in the political wilderness, wailing alone in the thunderstorm of 1MDB and other mega scandals afflicting Malaysia, Anwar, the DAP and Amanah, welcomed him into their home, despite their misgivings about his past.

Oh, it was said, the old man has repented, he has seen the bitter fruits of what he had sown earlier, he has seen the light, why, we do believe, he could even be born again! Praise God!

But since Bersatu is willing to tear down the house that it was invited into, despite all the talk of perjuangan murni (sacred struggle), any new host will treat this party as radioactive material to be handled with extreme caution.

3.) Since the old man and Bersatu first helped bring Umno down and then threatened to crash the Harapan government, will Umno trust them with much power? It could well be that Bersatu is allocated few seats in their new holy racial alliance at the next general election, say in 2023, to prevent them from holding everyone hostage.

If they are squeezed of seats, what options will Bersatu have? Will they jump back to Harapan? Nobody wants an unfaithful woman who has betrayed you before.

4.) Bersatu’s threat to quit Harapan assumes that everyone in Umno is willing to embrace the old man and his gang. But there have been several murmurs and warnings from Umno itself cautioning against such cooperation, reflecting friction between the party’s factions.

For example, while Umno president Zahid Hamidi was reported early this month to be keen about working with Bersatu, its deputy president Mohamad Hasan cautioned: “To us who are being wooed, don't be too smitten, feel too desired. Don't ever be in a rush just because you've exchanged glances once or twice. Lust is at times very dangerous.”

5.) What about the Najib Abdul Razak factor? 

The old man personally insulted the kleptocrat, calling him perompak, penyangak, pencuri, lanun (robber, bandit, thief, pirate) at ceramahs all over the country.

If Bersatu joins the holy alliance, will the case against Najib and the handbag lady be quietly dropped, perhaps on some strange technical issue? We know that the old man is very conscious about his global image as a “fighter against injustice”, speaking up for Kashmir (and costing us millions in reduced oil palm exports to India) and even trashing Donald Trump (and endangering our economic ties).

But if the case against Najib is dropped, that will make Malaysia and the old man the laughing stock of the world, the epitome of a corrupt banana republic.

Even if Najib forgives the old man, will the handbag lady be so charitable? Can everybody kiss and make up? Or are hidden knives waiting for the old man?

6.) While GPS will probably be fine to be “born again” with the BN spirit, are they comfortable working with PAS when Sarawak has a far more open-minded view on religion than Abdul Hadi Awang and gang? Will it harm GPS in the upcoming state elections, especially since Sarawak has many Christian voters?

7.) The starring attraction, the main driver of Bersatu is that the old man is not the "sick man".

He will be 95 soon. Even if he wants to kerja sampai mati (work till death), even he should know that he can’t live forever. Let’s not forget that when the old man was at his peak popularity, and the anti-Najib tide was sweeping the country, the party only managed to win 13 seats.

What will happen to Bersatu once its talisman has gone? Can the son draw in nationwide support? Surely we can’t expect the "flying car minister" to charm the masses? Or maybe the "young man" can do it with another home-cooked dinner for "the holy ghost" that still haunts our politics, namely Zakir Naik?

8.) Bersatu doubled its number of MPs from 13 to 26 thanks to defections from Umno (before losing one at Tanjung Piai). Will any of these political frogs leap back into their home pond? Last November, Zahid said that Umno is willing to accept the return of former members who defected but have since “regretted” leaving the party.

He claimed that those who left Umno were now being shunned by the public.

“When they go back to their state or parliamentary constituencies, people ignore them. When they go for Friday prayers, nobody greets them,” he said. 

Being politically promiscuous is morally compromising, but once you’ve sold yourself to the highest bidder, rather than the highest principles, it becomes easier to do it again. Parties which live by defections may also perish with defections, especially when the star attraction has gone.

There could be more than eight reasons, but these seem to be the salient ones. With all these doubts, is the threat by Bersatu to quit Harapan for real? Sure, they may maintain short-term power in a new holy racial alliance. But the long-term prospects are more debatable.

For now, there is detente, an uneasy peace, between Bersatu and the three other Harapan parties with the “after Apec I do what I want” so-called “compromise”. Meanwhile, time is running out for Harapan to win back the loyalty of voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned.

Unless the agenda of real reform is restarted with energy and purpose, there may not even be much left to win the next general election. Rightly or wrongly, the old man and the old racial thinking seem to be the main stumbling block.

So, if the promised power transition does not happen soon after the Apec meeting, it may be time to sharpen those poker skills and call Bersatu’s bluff. 

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ANDREW SIA is a veteran journalist and editor who prefers teh tarik kau over tepid English tea. You can add milk, sugar and halia to his drink at tehtarik@gmail.com. - Mkini