ANALYSIS | Following the interim prime minister’s address and Pakatan Harapan’s ensuing press conference last night, political analysts infer that both sides lack the numbers to comfortably surpass the 112-seat majority needed to form the government.
They noted that both speeches spoke of their strategies to help break the impasse and carry them across the finish line.
For Mahathir, it was his “unity government” proposal while for PKR President Anwar Ibrahim, it was the claim that he is the frontrunner in the race to become the PM.
Mahathir the nationalist
To University of Tasmania’s James Chin, Mahathir’s televised address last night was aimed at convincing the public of his unconventional idea.
“He is trying to show he is the good guy and he wants to set up a government (based on) national unity where party affiliation is not important and it’s all about the individual. That he is for the national interest.
“He is trying to set a narrative that he is the true nationalist and that he is fighting from behind and he is trying to bring everyone together.
“That he came out of retirement and he is now doing this as a favour to Malaysia,” he told Malaysiakini when contacted.
A unity government means a grand coalition government where cabinet ministers can comprise anyone from any political party that has seats.
This is starkly different from the conventional two-coalition system in Malaysia with the government on one side and the Opposition on the other.
Yesterday, Mahathir stressed that politics ought to be set aside to allow him to form a government that prioritised national interests and did not “side with any party”.
Harapan, BN and PAS have rejected this idea because it could allow Mahathir absolute discretion to decide his cabinet without needing to consult individual parties, akin to a presidential cabinet.
Anwar the frontrunner
Meanwhile, Chin analysed that Anwar is positioning himself as the most legitimate PM candidate seeing that he appears to command support from the most MPs.
The Harapan coalition backs Anwar and they have 92 MPs.
Should Warisan and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) throw their support behind Mahathir’s bloc - which comprises Bersatu and the 11 aligned with Gombak MP Azmin Ali - he would command the support of 64 MPs at most.
The BN-PAS bloc has 61 MPs - Umno (39), PAS (18), MCA (two), MIC (one) and PBRS (one). They have publicly refused both PM candidates and want a snap general election instead.
The decision of the remaining five MPs - one each from Star, PBS, Upko, Parti Bersatu Sarawak plus an independent - is unknown.
“If you read Anwar’s statement carefully, basically he is saying Harapan has done a u-turn and I am now the best candidate (for PM).
“He is claiming he has the numbers and that is the reason why he said ‘I trust the wisdom of the Agong’... as under our present system, the King’s first option is to give a chance to a leader who he thinks can command the most support.
“In Anwar’s speech, he says he is basically the one with the mandate because in 2018 people voted for Harapan and at the end of the day, he is the Harapan leader,” Chin said.
He further speculated that both Anwar and Mahathir were actively fishing for support from Warisan, GPS and even individuals from Umno and PAS.
Meanwhile, Universiti Utara Malaysia political science professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani noted that Anwar hinted yesterday that some MPs broke with party lines when interviewed by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong about who they wanted as the next PM.
“So, maybe it could be that he (Anwar) has received enough votes,” he speculated.
PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution, an Anwar loyalist, claimed on national television last night that “more than 92 MPs” had backed the Port Dickson MP but would not reveal the exact number.
For a simple majority, Anwar will need to garner the support of 20 more MPs.
Agong the mediator
The decision was now with the Agong, whom Azizuddin said could alternatively request the two leaders to come to a compromise.
If that fails, snap polls might be on the cards.
“The Agong now plays the role of the mediator.
“The Agong can call both of these leaders to reconcile, to make peace. And have both of them decide who could be the PM... It can be resolved easily if Mahathir and Anwar can negotiate and compromise.
“But if both stick with their teams and are unable to resolve this, then I think like it or not, we have to go to the last option, which is a general election,” he said.
Reading from the Federal Constitution, lawyer New Sin Yew said that the Agong could hand it to Anwar based on how he appears to have more support than Mahathir, even if the former has no majority support.
He pointed to Article 43(2) of the Constitution which states that “the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as prime minister to preside over the cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House”.
“The Agong can appoint Anwar because he is 'most likely' to command the confidence of the majority of the MPs,” New wrote on his Facebook page.
However, this minority government scenario could lead to more political instability.
“Anwar would then have to test his confidence through either a confidence, no-confidence or budget vote in the Dewan Rakyat. If that fails, then Anwar must tender his resignation to the Agong.
“Anwar would then have two options - the first option is to advise the Agong to dissolve Parliament. If that happens, we will have a fresh election.
“The second option is to allow someone else to attempt to form the government if that person is able to command the confidence of the majority in Parliament, it could be anyone from the 222 MPs,” he said. - Mkini
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