GEORGE TOWN — The current political turmoil in Putrajaya could push Malaysia’s economy further into a slowdown, but only if instability is prolonged, an economist said following the abrupt resignation of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as prime minister yesterday.
The uncertainty has already taken an immediate toll on the Bursa Malaysia, with The Edge Malaysia estimating last night that over RM43 billion in value has been lost as investors withdrew from the market.
Seasoned economist Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam said the ongoing political tussle within Pakatan Harapan (PH), its splinter parties and the Opposition will certainly shock the country’s economy as is evidenced by the drop in the stock market when it opened yesterday morning
“Uncertainty and instability are one of the worse obstacles to economic growth for any country and there are already signs of a slowdown due to the world economic situation and novel coronavirus (Covid-19),” he told Malay Mail when contacted for comment on the effects of the political turmoil.
Ramon said Malaysia is in danger of going into recession unless the government comes up with satisfactory solutions to spur the economy.
Dr Mahathir was scheduled to announce a stimulus package this week to spur Malaysia’s economy, especially its tourism industry, which has been severely crippled due to travel restrictions placed on citizens from China after the global spread of Covid-19.
Bank Negara Malaysia had also cut Malaysia’s growth forecast for 2020 earlier this month, predicting the GDP rate will grow at a slower rate of between 4.3 and 4.8 per cent now compared to the initial 4.7 per cent last year.
Ramon pointed out that the general populace is more concerned about their basic needs such as food and lodging and warned that the power play will not bode well should snap polls be called.
“Why these politicians have nothing to do? The people are already frustrated by the state of the economy and now this, they will be disgusted and feel let down by the government.
“They are better off evaluating their own weaknesses and building up their strengths to build up the country than this. The people will feel betrayed by this,” added Ramon, who is director of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute and chairman of the Centre for Public Policy Studies.
Yesterday, international news agency Reuters had also quoted a financial analysts saying Malaysia will now have a hard time convincing foreign investors, especially when compared to its neighbours’ relative political stability and economic growth.
“It becomes quite hard for Malaysia to bring foreign investors back,” Jolynn Kek, the head of equity at BOS Wealth Management Malaysia, was quoted saying.
However, political analyst Oh Ei Sun assured Malaysians that the negative impact of the political crisis will only be on a short-term basis.
“If the change in government happens, there will be the initial shock, the stock market may drop a little bit but we will see a rebound because it is back to the ‘good old days’,” he said.
The senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs believed that in the long term and if there were to a change in government as speculated, it could spell a better investment environment for businessmen and investors.
“Of course, businessmen and investors do not prefer political instability, we don’t even know who will be the prime minister tonight. However, assuming they formed a new coalition with Umno, I don’t think a lot of investors and businesses will have problems with this,” he said.
He said businesses and investors placed emphasis on profits and revenue so they would look at the situation realistically.
“It will be back to the good old days, they can go to their favourite minister, pay him under the table, get projects and perversely, that is good for business sentiments,” he said.
He said businessmen generally do not have problems with the corruption and collusion going on under Umno.
“Investors are not saints, they just want to make money one way or the other,” he said.
The FBM KLCI closed at 1,490.06 Monday, which was 2.69 per cent lower, the lowest point since 2011.
The ringgit had also weakened yesterday against the Singapore dollar and US dollar as it traded at RM3.0128 for the former and at RM4.2215 for the latter at 5pm on Monday.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia has given an assurance that it is closely monitoring the conditions of the financial markets.
“While ringgit movements will continue to be market determined, BNM’s market operations will ensure sufficient liquidity and orderly financial market conditions,” it said in a statement.
The market opens at 9am today. – MALAY MAIL
Anger, heartache of long-suffering Malaysian voters
OVER the weekend, a series of political manouverings left Malaysians at home and abroad reeling in disbelief, struck by a sense of helplessness familiar to voters in the last few decades of Barisan Nasional rule.
Talk of power grabs and political frogs jumping has evoked a dreaded sense of déjà vu even among the most optimistic voters, a group I confess to be part of.
I have always taken great pride in my privilege to vote in the last four general elections, despite having some of the earlier romanticism dulled by more than 20 years working as a journalist.
In spite of the many times the previous government all but mocked the ideals of justice, transparency and equality, I and many others like me continued to believe that good governance, equal opportunities and unfettered progress were really attainable. All we needed were determination, luck and more than just a little bit of patience.
Before the 2018 elections, Malaysian voters had little choice but to put up with the antics, corruption and abuse of power that came with a government that had ruled unchallenged for almost 60 years.
We shouted, rallied, and looked to civil society leaders and the rare few independent politicians to give voice to our grievances, but above all, we remained patient and dared to believe in better days to come.
And then the 14th general election happened, and we celebrated our new government leaders who came sweeping into Parliament with promises that the past would never repeat itself.
We dared to believe that our wait was over, and as a people, we would finally be able to get down to the work of healing our nation.
But, last weekend proved that we will have to wait a little bit longer.
Cracks in Pakatan Harapan started appearing even before it won the elections. Infighting and power struggles all showed the inability of the pact’s members to agree on almost anything, except that they had wanted to storm Putrajaya and take over.
The long-suffering Malaysian voter, whose imagination had been captured by the promise of a new era, initially forgave these indiscretions as “teething problems”, and we convinced ourselves that PH was “still better than the old government”.
And so, the enduring voter remained patient, hoping and waiting for PH to finally grow into its new role and do what it was voted in for – to govern and lead our country back to greatness.
Yesterday, barely 21 months after the historic elections, reality has hit home. Last weekend’s debacle stank of the same arrogant, selfish and dishonourable attitude that was characteristic of the BN government that we booted out.
As what looks like a very badly planned game of political chess plays out in the Malaysian landscape, what has become clear is that those we voted into power have failed us.
Instead of protecting the least among us, they are intent on protecting their own interests; instead of boldly steering the country out of the economic and political mess it has been engulfed in for too long, they are intent on employing all means to stay in power.
When GE14 happened, the long-suffering voter was so desperate to believe that we finally had leaders in power who would work for the greater good of the country.
All we are left with now is the anger and heartache of betrayal.
Nobody knows yet what will come out of this debacle, and if Malaysia will indeed see yet another change of government, and one that does not have the people’s mandate. But one thing we do know is that the long-suffering voter will not stay beaten down by this seemingly hopeless situation.
We’ve gone through decades of disappointment in our so-called leaders, and throughout the years of gerrymandering and wrongdoings, we remained resilient and resolute in our fight for a better Malaysia.
In this latest saga, we will be no different, because our optimism and belief in a Malaysia that we can all be proud of are independent of the leaders who somehow always seem to fail us.
So, to all the other long-suffering voters, let us nurse the wounds of our disappointment, anger, heartache and utter disgust at this betrayal of our trust.
And then, let us pick ourselves up again, because the battle ahead for a better Malaysia remains a long one. – THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT
MALAY MAIL / THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT
Sudah la
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