State seats for PAS; Parliament ones likely to go to Umno - analysts

While Umno and Bersatu are openly embroiled in disagreements over the issue of seat allocations for GE15, Perikatan Nasional (PN) bedfellow PAS has been largely silent on the matter.

Even so, according to an analyst Malaysiakini spoke to, it is more crucial to determine the seat allocation between Umno-BN and PAS.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) academic Lee Kuok Tiung speculated that some form of arrangement could also already be in place among the Muakafat Nasional parties, albeit not necessarily in detail.

“There could be states handed to PAS while Parliament seats or federal government to Umno,” Lee said in commenting on the model possibly used by the alliance.

Any allocation of seats between Umno and PAS would surely involve sacrifices on both ends, he said, adding that they would likely “play around” with the division of state and Parliament seating in order to reach a compromise.

If done this way, PAS would likely garner a larger allocation of state seats to contest while Umno would come on top in terms of Parliament seats.

Currently, PAS administers three states - Kedah, which it wrested from Pakatan Harapan in May, Kelantan and Terengganu.

He further claimed that threads of cooperation between the two parties could even be seen prior to GE14, such as when PAS tabled the private member’s bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 or Act 355.

In April 2017, the BN-administration allowed Marang MP Abdul Hadi Awang, who is PAS president, to table the bill.

Grassroots machinery mobilised

The BN-PAS political cooperation is a threat to the Harapan coalition in the lead up to GE15, especially in view of successes achieved by Muafakat Nasional in several by-elections.

As such, BN and PAS will have to prioritise seat allocation discussions among them to reach an accord before the matter can be brought for negotiations with Bersatu, Lee opined.

Yet, it was pointed out that complications will arise as many of the seats previously contested by Umno and PAS were also contested by Bersatu when the latter was part of the Harapan coalition in GE14.

Several seats had even been won under an Umno ticket before its lawmakers jumped parties.

These include parliamentary seats for Mersing, Larut, Masjid Tanah, Hulu Terengganu, Tanah Merah, Kudat, Bagan Serai and others.

According to Ilham Centre research director Mohd Yusri Ibrahim, PAS has remained largely mum on the issue of seat allocations as their members were not involved in the issue arising from the seats won under the Umno-BN ticket.

Bersatu is a splinter group formed by former Umno leaders Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin and also positioned as a bumiputera-based party to appeal to the Malay voters.

“They (PAS) do not need to get involved in the war on words between Bersatu-Umno... it is none of their business, at least for the time being,” he told Malaysiakini yesterday.

Even so, he claimed that based on the information he has gathered, Umno and PAS are already moving towards seat allocations with grassroots-level election machinery instructed to begin mobilising.

Not forgetting friends

To Yusri, the model to be adopted by the two parties would retain the status quo whereby Umno and PAS contest the seats they have won before, while the lost seats would be opened to the party whose candidate gathered the most votes in the previous election.

Nonetheless, this would still require a compromise to be reached for other constituencies to ensure each party contests a seat, be it at a state or Parliament level.

On whether PAS would be satisfied contesting just 18 Parliament seats it currently holds, Yusri disagrees.

“PAS will ask for more, especially seats previously won by Harapan.”

To political observer B Anbumani, PAS can play the role of kingmaker in this PN chess match as he felt that PAS has a strong voter-base in rural constituencies.

“I see PAS has a plan but they must also be careful moving forward.

“I am sure PAS will contest more seats on the east coast which they dominate in Kelantan and Terengganu, and Kedah (in the north),” he said.

Although PAS and Umno may have a plan in terms of seat division, Anbumani added that Umno cannot afford to forget allies that formed their backbone.

Umno and PAS must be able to compromise and cooperate with Bersatu in this matter.

“Don’t be too excited over the question of seat division that you leave friends behind,” Malaysiakini is told. - Mkini