Harapan on verge of making the same mistake

 

If there is a sharp reversal in support for the current administration and its ill-timed elections, Umno Baru/BN could lose big time and the possible result could be a hung parliament or even an opposition victory.

One likely outcome could be major parties such as Umno, Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional or PN (which still includes PAS), and key Sarawakian and Sabah parties, holding big blocks without majorities.

To put in context the unpredictability of elections, how many people dared to predict that the 2018 elections will result in Harapan resolutely coming into power? The only major politician who predicted it then was current PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli - many others, including those from Harapan, flatly rejected that possibility.

It is because of such possibilities that it is imperative Harapan goes solo for all the seats for Peninsular Malaysia and most of them in Sabah and Sarawak. If the turnaround comes, it will then be in a strong position to take power or negotiate for power with others.

Strangely, it is Umno which knows this better than the others and is positioning itself to contest all seats in Peninsular Malaysia, rejecting alliances with PN, including PAS.

Elections are difficult things to predict. Across the world, they have become so volatile that there is no means to predict outcomes reliably, even when there are carefully conducted, scientific opinion polls done with uncertainty levels given.

As the polling date arrives, last-minute developments can change the course of elections. This happened in the US with the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump clash when bad news about Clinton in the last days towards the US presidential elections of 2016 swung the contest in favour of Trump, reversing a healthy lead she had in opinion polls.

There are many reasons ascribed to why she lost- here’s one titled ‘12 days that stunned a nation: How Hillary Clinton lost’.

Dr M’s Bersatu worst performer

In Malaysia, there is no system of such electoral polling to give us any indication of direction. In the 2008 and 2013 general elections, the opposition showed huge gains against expectations and in 2018, the Harapan coalition won the elections outright, against almost all expectations.

The thing to remember is that the turnaround to the opposition was already happening in the run-up to GE14 but it was not widely perceived to be so at the time, leading to that unfortunate alliance between Harapan and Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Bersatu.

Mahathir is often credited with the victory at GE14 but the evidence shows otherwise, as I explained in detail in this article titled ‘Did Mahathir win the general election?’

Malaysians should remember that Bersatu was ridiculously given 52 parliamentary seats to contest in Peninsular Malaysia (they did not contest in Sabah and Sarawak) and won only 13 seats.

PKR, which contested 51 seats in the peninsula and 21 seats in Sabah and Sarawak, had 48 MPs at the end of the last GE (see table), 3.7 times that of Bersatu, while DAP bagged 42 seats. PKR won more than 80 percent of seats contested in the peninsular, DAP over 90 percent and even lowly placed Amanah 50 percent. Bersatu won only 25 percent of its seats. Indeed, PKR, DAP and Amanah won the elections, not Mahathir who shamelessly rode into power under Harapan’s sarong!

The point to note is that Harapan could most likely have done better in the 2018 elections without Bersatu and won the elections on their own in the peninsula. But somehow, they were convinced that Mahathir was vital for victory.

Another mistake

Now, they are on the verge of making the same mistake again, especially with Muda, a party registered a few months ago, and an offshoot of Bersatu. Its only MP (and party president) is Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, a protege of Mahathir, who I have written about in this article titled ‘10 reasons why Harapan must spurn Muda’.

Muda actually brings less to the table than Bersatu and Mahathir, its only call to fame being that it represents youth, as if other parties do not have youth wings. Apparently, they want a handful of seats but in the current environment of possible razor-thin margins for the coalition, even that is too much.

There are two main reasons why Harapan should go solo. First, if there is a turnaround against Umno, it has to be in a position to gain the most amount of leverage - not to give it away to others the way they did in 2018 to Bersatu.

Second, you can’t justify giving away seats which your own party members have been cultivating, especially if the seats are already in the bag. It will be silly to give seats to those who have not done the groundwork and who just think they can contribute, while at the same time working for the victory of the newcomers.

Harapan needs to hold on to all its seats and contest every seat in the peninsula and most in Sabah and Sarawak. Talk of a coalition government can take place after the elections, not now when the would-be partners want to ride, Mahathir-like, under Harapan’s sarong for victory.

This time popular opinion, according to most pundits, gives a resounding victory to Umno/BN. The examples given of a turnaround towards Umno are the Johor and Malacca by-elections. These ignore two very important facts which are game changers.

First, in most constituencies, Umno/BN did not get a majority of votes. PN and Pakatan Harapan combined got more of the vote than Umno. Pakatan’s share of votes was the lowest, starkly showing that if you let the enemy in, they will build their strength using you and then turn against you when the opportunity comes.

Second, voter turnout was extremely low. For instance, it was just 55 percent in the Johor elections this year compared to some 85 percent in 2018, according to Elections Commission statistics (here and here).

That is a huge 30 percentage points difference which means the by-election results are not necessarily reflective of results in the coming general election where turnout is likely to be high despite the floods.

There other factors

I can think of at least three other factors that would work against Umno/BN. First, elections are being held at the time of the monsoons. The only other PM who did that was Mahathir. Surely the electorate can and will get upset by that deliberate act of reducing voter turnout.

Second, it is the return of the kleptocrats to power. Whoever wants Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as PM and former Najib Abdul Razak to be fully pardoned for his despicable crimes? I have trouble believing the majority of Malays will accept them.

And thirdly, Umno is going for broke, and eschewing alliances with PAS and Bersatu. That may backfire. Most Malaysians know they are all cut from the same cloth, and that it is PKR and Amanah who are a different category.

About the only thing going for Umno is the current disaffection of the Malays with DAP. But surely, they must realise that DAP will not hold the finance minister’s post under Harapan and be the distributor of largesse.

Mahathir gave DAP enough rope after the 2018 elections because he needed their support. DAP, instead of using the rope wisely, hung itself. But what have the Malays - I mean most of them, not the privileged who plunder, pillage, and rob public wealth - actually got from over 60 years of Umno?

If the government had been straight, honest and competent, the Malays would have achieved much more and the benefits would have been far more widespread instead of profiting a relative few while leaving large swathes of under-development behind. I believe most Malays know this and will vote accordingly when the time comes.

Middle-class Malaysia underestimates the rural voters. It was the rural voters who threw out Najib in 2018 when Malay support for Umno dwindled from under 50 percent to about a third. They also pretty much rejected Bersatu, giving a thrashing to Mahathir’s fledgling party in the Malay heartland. In other words, they were very savvy voters.

If and when the tsunami comes again - if not now then later - Harapan needs to rise and ride with the tide, not share it with crass newcomers who are interested in power and will sell almost anything for the right price.

That’s why they need to surf solo. - Mkini

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P GUNASEGARAM, a former editor at online and print news publications, and head of equity research, is an independent writer and analyst.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.