Separate polls a costly decision for PH

 

The opposition’s top brass have spoken. Voters in Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan must return to the ballot box next year to pick their state assembly representatives.

For Penang DAP especially, the Pakatan Harapan leadership’s decision to not hold state elections simultaneously with federal polls must have been difficult to take.

Loke Siew Fook, the party secretary-general, indicated as much. His excuse for the decision to wait is that PH must be seen to be united. But at what cost?

Penang chief minister Chow Kon Yeow has every reason to worry. It is essential that the DAP, as the lynchpin of PH in Penang, does well in the polls to enable the coalition to hold on to the reins of state government that they snatched from Barisan Nasional in 2008, mostly by destroying Gerakan.

Of the 33 seats that PH holds in the 40-seat Penang legislature, 19 are in the hands of DAP. If DAP does badly, there is every chance that the PH state government will fall.

Chow’s fear is that a large proportion of the voters will stay away from the state polls so soon after casting their votes in the parliamentary elections.

A low voter turnout usually means high returns for Barisan Nasional (BN) during by-elections and, as we have seen, in snap general elections as well. The Melaka and Johor elections not too long ago is all the evidence we need.

In the Melaka elections on Nov 20 last year and in Johor on March 12, BN swept to convincing victories. The voter turnout in Melaka was 65.85% while in Johor it was 54.92%, way below the average of 75.2% over 14 general elections.

In the 2018 election, when PH unseated BN, 82.32% of the electorate turned up to cast their votes.

The wisdom is that BN supporters are more likely to turn up at the voting centre than their friends whose sentiments are for the opposition.

The inconvenience of having to show up for a second round of voting may very well put off many PH supporters.

More than that, DAP’s strength lies in the Chinese urban centres, with a mostly middle-class electorate. Their apathy towards politics is well chronicled.

A quick research after the Melaka polls showed that 29% of the Chinese and Indian voters chose to stay away, while 34% of others also did not turn up.

The reason given by the PH top leadership for holding separate state elections is that they want to avoid holding elections during the monsoon season to focus on measures to face flood woes.

It is uncanny how they could not come up with a more intelligent reason. Voters will have to go out to make their choice anyway, whether or not state elections are held.

With parliamentary elections in progress, the parties will still have to use their resources to woo voters. And we are not even talking about the additional expense of holding separate polls yet.

Even if there is a deluge in the three PH states, as well as in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu where PAS holds sway, the show will go on.

If PH loses their hold on their three states next year, they have no one else to blame. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.