N SEMBILAN POLLS | With less than 24 hours before voters in the "Land of Tradition" head to the polls, three Malay-majority seats in Greater Seremban are shaping up to be among the closest contests in the Negeri Sembilan election.
Just an hour's drive from Kuala Lumpur, Ampangan, Sikamat, and Labu share similar demographic characteristics, with Malays accounting for more than 70 percent of voters in each constituency.
This poses a tougher challenge for ruling party Pakatan Harapan as it faces a growing "Malay first" sentiment posed by rivalling BN-Perikatan Nasional front's racially laced narratives.
However, a Malaysiakini survey found that while race-based issues remained among the factors influencing some voters, each constituency had its own set of concerns that mattered equally to a more politically mature electorate seeking candidates and policies beyond party loyalty and sentiment.
In Ampangan, it appears that PAS' Rafie Abd Malek is leading the race against Nazri Kassim, who is defending the seat for PKR, and Bersatu's Azzah Harun.
Some voters believe that Nazri is in a tight spot not only because of the BN-PN front, but also due to Rafie's track record during his one-term service as Ampangan representative between 2018 and 2023, which he won on Harapan's ticket.
Rafie later defended the seat in 2023 as an independent candidate after being sidelined by PKR, which fielded Tengku Zamrah Tengku Sulaiman.
Despite losing the race to his former party comrade, Rafie managed to secure 3,079 votes, reducing the former's majority to only 329 against PN's Ghazali Zainal Abidin's 5,725 votes.
Now a PAS member, Rafie has a stronger footing in Ampangan, a township with 21,336 registered voters, as he also receives backing from BN machinery and is expected to consolidate support from both cohorts.
Another challenge that Harapan is facing is the trust deficit among constituents, as some claimed Zamrah did not perform well as their representative compared to Rafie.
"The incumbent assemblyperson? Sorry to say, but it was difficult to meet her. I hope the next one will be different," said a voter, Baharom Darus, 64.
A fruit seller in his 60s, who didn’t give his name, shared the same sentiment, calling Zamrah a "royalty".
"Rafie was much better when he was the assemblyperson. If there is any kenduri, or sick people, or death, he will show up," he said.
On the other hand, some voters said they would continue to vote for Harapan for its track record in representing Ampangan and managing the state.
Zarina Kasmani, 58, of Kampung Gedong Lalang believed caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun had been doing an "excellent" job in developing the state, while saying she was also satisfied with Zamrah's service to the people.
Battle for Sikamat
Situated on the outskirts of Seremban city with a total of 34,103 registered voters, Sikamat is also seeing a three-cornered fight between PN, Harapan, and Bersatu.
Once a BN fortress, PKR vice-president Aminuddin turned Sikamat into a Harapan stronghold when he wrested it in 2008, retaining the seat in the three subsequent elections.
However, the caretaker menteri besar has moved to Linggi for this state polls, leaving Sikamat to his former political secretary Nor Azman Mohamad.
But can Azman, formerly a PAS youth leader, secure enough support to continue Aminuddin's legacy for another term?
It is believed that Harapan is facing an uphill battle to defend the seat against retired senior police officer Razali Abu Samah, a Parti Wawasan Negara member representing PN, and Bersatu information chief Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz.
An analysis of voting patterns from the 15th general election showed that while Harapan emerged as the strongest bloc in Sikamat, BN and PN collectively held substantial support in the constituency, securing 23 percent and 35 percent of the total votes respectively.
This suggests that had BN and PN contested the 2023 state election as allies, as they are doing now, the contest could have been significantly closer and potentially put Aminuddin's bid for a fourth term at risk.
Azman also must overcome the challenge of being associated with DAP, a Harapan component that has been successfully painted as a villain in the eyes of the Malays.
"We do not want these DAP Chinese to be in power. When they hold the power, they made a lot of changes but to their community's benefit, nothing much for us Muslims," said a pasar malam peddler, Ramli Mustapa, 73.
Some blame Harapan for what they say is a slower economy than BN's time, and the state government's policies, which several traders said had made their lives difficult.
Among them was a business consultant in Taman Paroi Jaya, who claimed he had voted for Harapan since 2018 but now decided to give a chance to BN-PN.
"Business was much better during BN's time. Harapan always talk about data this and data that to show the economy is improving, but we are not feeling it," he said.
For food truck operator Afriyelni Amril, 35, she is hoping to see BN coming to power again for business reasons.
While not denying that Aminuddin's administration had assisted small traders, she claimed that the local governments had implemented harsh policies on roadside peddlers since Harapan took over from BN.
This was allegedly due to efforts to beautify areas, which displaced the traders from their original spot and forced them to rent facilities from the local council.
"It was better during Tok Mat's (Mohamad Hasan) time. Harapan introduced so many new procedures," she said.
Tight race in Labu
In Labu, a constituency with 32,884 voters that is seeing rapid development for its proximity to KLIA, incumbent Hanifah Abu Baker from Bersatu is running a tight race against Harapan's Faez Abdul Razak and BN's Siti Nur Umaira Hasim.
In 2023, Hanifah, a Kampung LBJ native, defeated Harapan's Ismail Ahmad during the height of Bersatu's influence in PN and the so-called "green wave" phenomenon.
With the new political dynamic seeing PN backing BN's contest in the seat, many voters shared the view that Hanifah's bid to defend the constituency would be far from a walk in the park.
There are split views among constituents over his performance as an elected representative, where some claimed they seldom felt the former Negeri Sembilan opposition chief's presence, but some others praised his efforts to assist villagers, especially in the LBJ area.
Umaira, 36, however, is struggling to establish herself among Labu voters, many of whom perceive her as a newcomer who only became visible in the constituency in the run-up to the election.
While representing the BN-PN front may be an advantage for the Puteri Umno leader given hardcore Umno and PAS supporters seldom deviate from voting along party lines, like 71-year-old Abdul Hamid Sahat from Kampung Kondok, other voters and BN supporters said her nomination came as a surprise.
They said the local Umno had wanted to feature Rasah Umno division deputy chief Irwan Suhid, otherwise known to the locals as Iwan Labu, who had been working to serve the constituency.
It was rumoured that Umaira's candidacy might have to do with her father being Rasah Umno chief Hasim Rusdi, a two-term Labu assemblyperson from 2008 to 2018.
On the other hand, Faez, who is 41 this year, received praise from many for his service as Harapan's Labu coordinator, a position that he assumed in 2024.
Trader Redzuan Markat, 55, and his fellow villager from Kampung LBJ, a retired soldier who wanted to be known only as Maidin, 59, said the member of Negeri Sembilan PKR leadership council had been very quick to send assistance to those in need, like distributing nursing beds and wheelchairs to the former Felda settlement's ageing population.
"Anep (Hanifah) is good; he is a local. You can call him anytime, and he will help regardless of political belief.
"The coordinator (Faez) is also good. He helped us a lot. But Maira (Umaira), we do not know her," said Maidin, who indicated that he would support the incumbent.
Another Kampung Kondok villager who identified herself as Rubi, 26, is rooting for Faez, saying he had been hardworking.
However, despite his popularity, Faez is also facing the same challenge as Azman in Sikamat, as Labu's 74 percent Malay voters’ percentage has also been penetrated by the anti-DAP narrative.
Abdul Hamid, an Umno member from Kampung Kondok, said he would continue to vote for BN for race and religion, on top of his indebted feeling to Umaira's father.
"We want those who can protect our race, religion, and the Malay rulers according to the Rukun Negara. This is who we will vote for.
"DAP and PAP (in Singapore) are the same. We do not want (Malaysia) to be like Singapore," he said.
Similarly, father of three Kamarulzaman Fadly, 39, praised the BN-PN political pact and shared his concern over a supposed "diminishing Malay special rights".
Tabung Haji
A brief survey suggested that while the newly released royal commission of inquiry report into Lembaga Tabung Haji may influence some fence-sitters, it remains to be seen whether the issue, which surfaced only in the final stretch of campaigning, will materially affect the election outcome.
That is despite Harapan leaders aggressively using the report to pin the scandal on Umno and BN, whose leaders oversaw Tabung Haji during the period when it allegedly suffered losses amounting to billions of ringgit.
READ MORE: 'Sakau' or not? Five key takeaways from Tabung Haji RCI
For example, Redzuan, who is already a Harapan supporter, believed the report would have a huge impact on the Malays and Muslims like his friends in Kampung LBJ.
According to him, many of them had begun withdrawing their Tabung Haji savings and deposited it to unit trust investments.
However, Kamarulzaman, who is also from the same village, said it does not change anything as "Malay unity is more important".
Factory operator Abdul Fatah Abdul Latif, 29, said he has not read the full report but indicated that it might help him decide who to give his ballot to come polling day. - Mkini
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