Analysts: 'Over confident' PAS risks losing more seats in GE14

PAS risks losing more seats in the next 14th general elections if its syura council proceeds to endorse muktamar's decision to break all ties with PKR, analysts have said. 

Among others, it was pointed out that PAS stands to lose the seats it had won with support from non-Malay voters, as well as some of its traditional seats in the Malay heartlands. 

On Sunday, the 63rd PAS muktamar unanimously adopted the motion.

Political analyst Dr Jeniri Amir said that while all political parties must be confident of its chances to enter an election, there is also the risk of being "over confident". 

"Even Pakatan Rakyat in the past was confident that they could win the general election. 

"But I think this time around PAS is over confident that they can win," he said in reference to recent statements made by PAS leaders that indicated its aim to win 40 parliament seats and five states in GE14.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang was the first to reveal the party’s ambitions to retain Kelantan and capture Terengganu, Kedah, Pahang and Selangor. 

This was on top of winning 40 parliamentary seats, up from 21 seats won in 2013.

PAS strategist Mohd Zuhdi Marzuki had during the muktamar stressed that the goal is not empty talk as it was based on data and research. 

Jeniri, however, cautioned that PAS appears to be out of touch with the ground sentiments which indicated unhappiness towards the party’s leadership under Abdul Hadi. 

“The general ground sentiment is that the people are not happy with Abdul Hadi, based on his differences when compared to the late Tuan Guru Nik Aziz,” said the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak lecturer in reference to PAS’ former spiritual advisor Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat. 

This unhappiness, he said, could even potentially affect support for PAS in its traditional Malay heartland stronghold. 

PAS under Abdul Hadi’s leadership has been accused of forging closer ties with Umno, particularly in its pursuit to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act (Act 355) and allow harsher punishments to be meted out for Syariah offences. 

This was despite denials by the party’s leaders who insisted that PAS will remain a political foe of Umno and BN. 

The Selangor example

Political analyst Atory Hussain said potential impact of the decision on PAS will be seen in states such as Selangor, where the party had won a number of mixed-seats in GE13 due to its alliance with PKR and DAP at the time.

“There are at least five or six seats in (Selangor) which PAS had won based on some 30 percent support from DAP. 

“If they (PAS) decide to cut ties with PKR, it will also mean potentially losing these seats,” he said. 

Atory cited as examples the Selat Kelang state seat currently held by PAS’ Dr Halimah Ali as well as the Kota Raja parliamentary seat held by Amanah women’s wing chief Siti Mariah Mahmud, which she won in GE13 on a PAS ticket. 

Responding to the motion, Selangor PAS treasurer Zaidy Abdul Talib had said that it will adhere to any decisions made by the syura council on whether to cut ties with PKR, a move which will undermine the position of its representatives in the state government.

A decision by PAS to quit the government will see Pakatan Harapan losing 13 elected representatives. 

The remaining 29 representatives - 14 from DAP, 13 from PKR and two from Amanah - is just enough to form a simple majority in the 56-member legislative assembly. 

Political analyst Hamdan Mohd Salleh, meanwhile, cited the Taman Templer state seat to illustrate possible impacts for both PAS and PKR. 

“Taman Templer was a traditional Umno seat but it was won by PAS in GE13. 

“PAS did not win the seat based on Malay support,”  said Hamdan who pointed out that PAS will stand to lose the seat if it proceeds to cut ties with PKR.

The seat, which falls under the Selayang parliamentary seat, is currently held by PAS exco Zaidy Abdul Talib who defeated Umno's Subahan Kamal for the first time in GE13. 

At the time, it was reported that there were 55.56 percent of Malay voters in Taman Templer, followed by Chinese (32.37 percent) and Indians (11.56 percent). 

PKR must re-strategise

In the event that Harapan is forced to enter a three-cornered fight with PAS, Hamdan said PKR will also need to reconsider its options in Selangor and focus efforts to contest in winnable seats, including Taman Templer. 

Aside from Taman Templer, there are two other state seats under Selayang - Rawang which is held by PKR’s Gan Pei Nei, as well as Kuang which has been an Umno stronghold for the last three-terms. 

“PKR has traditionally been contesting in Kuang but they have lost the seat with a larger majority each time. 

“In this case, Bersatu may stand a better chance to secure more support in Kuang,” said Hamdan, despite noting that both Bersatu and Amanah are still lacking in grassroots support.  

The PAS syura council is expected to meet in one or two weeks time to decide on whether to endorse the motion and officially cut ties with PKR.

PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, meanwhile, said that her party would wait for PAS syura council's decision before deciding on its next move. - Mkini