MUST READ, MESTI BACA : CHINA'S NEXT GREAT LEAP FORWARD

 "define China’s economic trajectory for years to come"

 

(Oct 29): China approving US$1.4 trillion or RM6.1 trillion economic stimulus
fiscal package expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins
top legislative body, Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC)
to approve fresh fiscal package, meeting on Nov 4-8 (US elections on 5th Nov).

OSTB : Our entire GDP is about RM1.5 trillion. So the Chinese fiscal stimulus of RM6.1 trillion is FOUR TIMES the size of the Malaysian GDP. That is a lot of spending. 

Why is China spending so much on fiscal stimulus? Here is the reason:

• China's Next 'Great Leap Forward'
• Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee and State Council, Beijing
• new directive to develop an advanced industrial workforce aimed at driving Chinese-style modernization.

OSTB :  Chinese industry is already super modern and far advanced than industry in Germany, Japan or the United States. For example Chinese Electric Vehicle manufacturing (EVs) are so advanced that they are shutting down EV industries in Europe, Japan and in the US. Yet the Chinese are spending big to make their super modern industries even more advanced.

In today’s China, self-reliance has reemerged as a slogan
broader goals of economic, industrial security amid “hostile” global environment

OSTB : Most certainly a Trump presidency will see tariffs against imports particularly imports from China. Short term benefits for the US but long term disaster. China wants to develop local demand and local technology to circumvent US tariffs.

The central government wants to boost internal production and limit vulnerabilities while still engaging in foreign trade – but on terms that reduce its exposure to Western pressures. Facing restrictions to its access to the latest technologies by U.S.-led alliances, Beijing sees self-sufficiency as essential to sustaining and expanding its influence in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. 

OSTB : If Chinese EVs keep getting cheaper, if they can go say 1000 km on one charge they will break through AND breakdown tariff barriers. American consumers will not agree to pay higher prices (because of higher tariffs) for lower quality Electric Vehicles. (Only the "tak reti kira, tak faham apa pun" Malaysian consumer is willing to do that). This is where some of that US$1.4 Trillion fiscal stimulus will also be spent - to create the next gen EV cars.

• increase training, support for workers to improve quality, quantity of production 
• support for career development, labor rights, skill development, job security
• to make manufacturing jobs more attractive
  

• boosting industrial production, especially high-tech innovation 
• essential for economic recovery and modernization
• Chinese committed to self-sufficiency, innovation, self-reliance
  
• self-reliance has reemerged as a slogan
• broader goals of economic and industrial security 
• boost internal production and limit vulnerabilities 
  

• reduce exposure to Western pressures
• to engage with foreign markets from secure, competitive stance 
• improved economic ties with the West
• define China’s economic trajectory for years to come.

OSTB : Wars will not start if China develops a 1000 km on one charge EV costing less than US10,000. 

Wars will start if the West tries to cut off China's access to commodities and raw materials. The US cut off Japan's access to petroleum and other raw materials. So on December 7th 1941 the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour.

For 70 years from 1945 until 2015 the US wiped out any Arab or Persian regime which threatened its access to Middle East oil. 

The US and the West are provoking China into a conflict not as an excuse for them to invade Chinese territory. US troops will never be able to wade ashore in China. But to use conflict as an excuse to cut off China's access to raw materials and commodities from around the globe. A total trade embargo. This is why China is building all those aircraft carriers in such a hurry.

And China is already taking the offensive. This is already war. The Chinese strategy is to outpace, out-tech, out-develop, out-manufacture, out-produce the rest of the world combined. If you dont drive a super-duper, super cheap Chinese EV, then you walk to work.  (Why would you want to do that? Are you a Malaysian?)

The Chinese have done this already. 
Have you shopped online lately? 
Or been to the supermarket? 

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.