Low to moderate earthquake risk forecast over next decade

 Natural resources and environmental sustainability minister Arthur Joseph Kurup says this is based on historical records, seismic activity patterns, and the country’s tectonic position.

In 2025, Malaysia experienced a series of minor earthquakes primarily in Johor.

PETALING JAYA:

 The risk of earthquakes in Malaysia over the next decade is expected to remain low to moderate, based on monitoring by the minerals and geoscience department.

Natural resources and environmental sustainability minister Arthur Joseph Kurup said the projection is based on historical records, seismic activity patterns, and the country’s tectonic position.

“Sabah continues to be identified as the region with the most active seismic activity, and the possibility of moderate to strong earthquakes still exists,” Kurup said in a written parliamentary reply.

For Peninsular Malaysia, he noted that earthquake risks cannot be entirely ruled out. However, based on empirical analysis and past records, any event is not expected to exceed magnitude 6.0.

He was responding to Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid (PN-Kuala Kangsar), who asked about the long-term impact of earthquakes on Malaysia’s land surface and the likelihood of recurring incidents.

Kurup also said Malaysia’s tectonic position on the Sunda Shelf and outside the Pacific Ring of Fire provides the country with a relatively stable geological foundation.

“However, this stability should be seen as relative, as the country remains affected by tectonic stresses resulting from interactions between major plates in the region,” he said.

He noted that the effects of earthquakes are cumulative, involving changes to both geological structures and the surface.

“Repeated tremors have the potential to reactivate ancient fault lines, cause microstructural changes in rock formations, and induce strain within the Earth’s crust.

“From a geomorphological perspective, earthquakes can alter river morphology and permanently affect slope stability, as observed in Ranau following the 2015 earthquake,” he said.

On earthquake frequency, Kurup stressed that no technology currently exists to predict the exact timing of earthquakes. However, monitoring indicates that small-scale tremors will continue to occur sporadically as part of natural tectonic processes.

In 2025, Malaysia experienced a series of minor earthquakes primarily in Johor, starting with a 4.1-magnitude event near Segamat on Aug 24, followed by at least five aftershocks over the next week with tremors felt in nearby states.

Additional minor quakes occurred later in the year, including a 3.4-magnitude tremor near Pagoh in December. - FMT