A FINANCIAL group has warned that the Malaysian government stands to lose around RM2 billion to RM5 billion in revenue if crude oil prices trades at US$55 (RM229.35) to US$65 per barrel, said The Edge financial markets daily.
UOB senior economist Julia Goh said the country’s oil-related revenue drop stands at RM300 million for every US$1 drop in crude oil prices, a calculation that excludes Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) dividend to the government.
“If we take the government and Petronas’ medium-term view of US$50/bbl-US$60/bbl for 2019 to 2021, this translates into a revenue loss of around RM3.6 billion to RM6.6 billion or 0.2% to 0.4% of GDP (gross domestic product),” Goh was quoted as saying in the report.
Goh said that only 33% of total oil revenues of RM81 billion in 2019 was at risk, as Petronas dividends of RM30 billion (special one-off) and RM24 billion (annual dividend) were locked in based on the preceding year’s oil price level.
Brent crude has fallen from a high of US$86.29/bbl on October 3 this year to US$54.40/bbl at the time the UOB note was written. At press time, Brent crude has slid further to US$53.36/bbl.
Goh said that additional government revenue of between RM4 billion and RM8 billion was expected to come from new tax measures and additional revenue from asset sales, while savings from introducing a targeted subsidy scheme could be around RM6 billion.
“Hence, we think there is room to manoeuvre and prevent a slippage in the fiscal deficit targets,” she said.
Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng had on Sunday said that the government would only recalibrate the federal budget if the average crude oil price dipped below US$50 a barrel.
UOB said that the last budget recalibration was done on January 28, 2016, when oil prices fell below US$35/bbl for about a month, which led to a revision of the 2016 Budget.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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