Malaysia Better Watch Closely - More Middle East Time Bombs, - Getting Worse Than Arab Spring in 2011

Mohammad bin Salman's fall from grace start of much bigger crisis

Saudi crown prince and other despots sources of  instability

CIA pursuing Saudi policy different from Trump 

MBS fall from grace masks a bigger problem for US, Europe 

three biggest Arab GDPs :  Saudi, Emirates, Egypt,  major problems

Saudi just posted biggest budget deficit in history

economy shrunk for first time in decade

exodus of over 900,000 foreign workers

FDI fell from $7.5bn in 2016 to $1.4bn in 2017

money fleeing kingdom -  last count $80bn left last year

Dubai is having real problems

slump in property, construction

13% of Dubai's GDP 

stock market lost quarter of worth 

Egypt massive mismanagement

total dominance of army in economy

govt's foreign debts out of control

foreign debts doubled since 2015

interest payments on Egypt's debts $30bn a year

38% of govt's budget for 2018-19

Shortages becoming commonplace

Egypt has potato shortage, water scarcity.

Time bomb

poorest Arab nations, Sudan, Jordan, Tunisia

major protests at rising prices, taxes

Protests sweeping Sudan 

rising cost of bread, fuel

Protesters set fire to ruling National Conference Party 

Jordan - people on streets against  increased taxes

mass demos forced resignation of prime minister 

time bomb in all these countries is youth unemployment

youth unemployment 21%  in Middle East, 25% in North Africa

Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco unemployment 30% 

traditional Arab engines - Saudi, Egypt, Algeria 

spluttering with fall of oil or have broken down entirely

Corrupt autocrats, army, elites have no clue, nor wish to serve their people

conditions which fomented Arab Spring in 2011 stronger eight years later

eight years later region incomparably weaker to absorb social conflict

Three Arab countries - Syria, Yemen, Libya - failed states

demise of GCC, Arab League, no Arab consensus to bind region together

My comments :  

Eight years after the Arab Spring, the situation in the Arab countries is getting worse. The CANCER OF FAILURE is spreading.

This disaster will afflict Malaysia as well. 

To an extent it has already.

So please pay attention. 

In the Arab countries there are many nails in their coffins.   

These nails have been there for hundreds or for a thousand years.

The GRAND CHAMPION among them is the almost complete absence or total lack of LOGIC AND REASON  in the conduct of their daily lives.  

As a result their societies have little or no freedom to live their lives as they please. 

For some strange reasons, peoples' private life and their personal choices become matters of grave public interest.  

The latest is Terengganu's decision to fine and jail people who do not maintain five daily prayers, attend Friday prayers etc. 

The absence of freedom and thinking - which leads to unthinking cultures - has kept their societies down and out. Hence they have not progressed.

Then the Arab countries have an over reliance on one product - OIL.

This  has sealed their fate even more. 

West Texas is down to US$45.59 per barrel while Brent is at $53.82 barrel.  

This is really fantastic news for the world economy. Lower energy prices will translate into lower prices for just about every other product and service. 

It will kick start the world economy again. 

Allahu Azeem - Allah is Almighty.

But this is disaster for the oil producing countries especially the Arab countries. 

The same is not true for other 'non - Arab' oil producers.  

Norway,  Russia, US, Canada are also oil or gas producing countries but a lower  oil price will hardly dent their economies. 

Why so?  Their societies run on relatively higher levels of  LOGIC AND REASON .

Their people and their economies have greater FREEDOM to do whatever they want. Hence they are happier, wealthier and also healthier. 

Iraq has a population of about 39.8 million and a working population of about 16 million.  

I am reading a book on the Middle East which says that even during the worse period of the US invasion of Iraq, the civil war in Iraq and all the fighting that is going on, SEVEN MILLION Iraqis were and still are getting paid civil service salaries and pensions.  

Can you imagine that - SEVEN million out of a working population of about 16 million are getting buta money civil service salaries. 

What do they do? 

What do they make? 

Obviously not much. 

Have you bought any 'Made in Iraq' airconditioners recently?  But shouldnt they be the world's Number ONE  designers and manufacturers of airconditioners? They live in the hot desert. 

'average temperatures in Iraq range from higher than 48 degree C (120 Fahrenheit) in July and August'

So how come they do not design and manufacture any airconditioners?  

Answer :  Lack of LOGIC AND REASON .

Iraq like ALL Arab oil producers - and Malaysia, Brunei - just takes their oil wealth and gives it out to the people through an overbloated Civil Service and a Civil Service dependency and other methods of dishing out free money.  

In the oil rich Islamic countries people still get paid for not having to work hard, not having to work much or not having to work at all.   So where is the incentive or the motivation for them to be productive or creative?  Why work at all?  This is the Curse of Oil.

The oil prices crashed about FOUR YEARS ago.  It looks like they are crashing again. Forty Dollar oil is not impossible. The culprit is shale oil. The technology and hence the production costs for shale oil are still on the learning curve.

Each time there is a new technology breakthrough in the extraction of shale oil, the breakeven production cost goes down further. Hence the pressure on oil prices will be greater. 

And shale oil is an orang putih  business.  

North America has the largest shale oil reserves in the world. 

That is why Donald Trump can say this quite blatantly :

Link :  https://youtu.be/bmwzx4MINpE

We have to gear ourselves up for production. We must increase our productivity - double, triple, quadruple etc. 

We must gear up the manufacturing of goods especially for export. We must export services.  We must free up our own economy from unnatural and illogical shackles or belenggu.  

There is great potential in our economy. We just have to free up our economy.

The education system is not functioning well.

Please DO NOT RELY ON THE SAME TYPE OF THINKING THAT MESSED IT UP TO CLEAR UP THE MESS.

It is not going to work. 

We need new people, new thinking. 

Change or become poor.