Oops, we won - Bersatu's bid to maintain rural Malay support

SPECIAL REPORT | Bersatu's decision to project itself as an alternative Malay Muslim party to Umno has not sat well among the traditional supporters of Pakatan Harapan.

Harapan, and its predecessor Pakatan Rakyat, had since their inceptions campaigned on a platform of multi-culturalism and inclusiveness.

The coalition had made substantial inroads in the three general elections since 2008 but could not muster enough Malay support to cross the finishing line.

A small Malay swing coupled with strong non-Malay support and a shift in East Malaysia in the 14th general election helped Harapan end the BN-Alliance's 61 years in power. Umno lost a whopping 34 parliamentary seats.

Bersatu, which represented Harapan in most rural Malay heartland constituencies, only managed to capture 13 parliamentary seats but the impact was more profound in mixed seats where PKR contested. It gained 47 seats compared to 30 in the last general election.

While critics may downplay Bersatu's role due to the relatively smaller number of seats won, it contested in significantly tougher seats, some of which comprised almost entirely of Malay electorate.

As Malays comprise the majority and the rural Malay heartland is given higher weightage under the current electoral system, any swing can have a profound impact on the election results.

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad had admitted that he had not expected Harapan to win but the small swing amid various push factors against BN, made all the difference.

Now, Bersatu leaders fear that the small Malay swing cannot be sustained and the pendulum can easily swing back which could cause Harapan to suffer major losses in the next general election as Umno did on May 9.

"Harapan's Malay support only increased by five percent to 29 percent compared to the 13th general election. It is not stable and surveys have shown that it has declined to pre-14th general election levels," said Bersatu Youth exco Ashraf Mustaqim Badrul Munir (photo).

Ashraf acknowledged that his Harapan colleagues were moving in the direction of multi-culturalism and that may be the future trend, but he pointed out that it cannot be achieved if the Malays that comprise the majority, particularly the conservative ones, are not convinced.

"It won't work if only the minority pushes for reforms while the majority is not onboard.

"Parties are talking about openness and reforms from top to bottom, but the pathway is shut from bottom to top, particularly among the conservatives," he told Malaysiakini.

Failing to talk to conservatives

He likened the situation to those who want change sitting on one island and the conservatives sitting on another island and not communicating with one another.

It is within this context, Ashraf said that Bersatu must take on the role of a Malay Muslim party in order to reach out to the conservatives.

"The biggest challenge today is winning the hearts of the Malay conservatives. If we continue to sit in our own islands, it is impossible to have change.

"How can we bring change if we can't speak their language? We need to be part of them to gain an understanding. It is a tough and complicated task," he said.

Membership of Bersatu, since its founding in 2016, is only open to the bumiputera while the non-bumiputera can only join as associate members.

Bersatu Youth wing chief Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman, who is known to be more progressive, has also defended the need for the party to retain its Malay Muslim identity.

He pointed to the situation in the US where Barack Obama was swept into office as president in 2009 on the back of galvanised liberal groups only to see a complete reversal as conservative and rural voters fought back, installing Donald Trump as the US president in 2016.

"We don't want a situation like that [...] we need to react to the political necessities of the time," Saddiq told a joint media interview before Bersatu annual general meeting scheduled to begin today until Dec 30.

But Bersatu is not the only party courting Malay conservatives. In a bid to defend their support base, PAS and Umno have countered by playing up issues concerning Malays and Muslims.

The two parties have spoken out against the recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) and local government elections, claiming that they can threaten the Malay language or the position of the Malays.

Umno and PAS also came together last month to protest against the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (Icerd) and successfully influenced public opinion to turn a seemingly innocuous convention into one that is perceived to threaten Malays and Muslims.

Harapan has had a bruising few months as Umno and PAS sought to control the narrative but Syed Saddiq said the priority now was to focus on issues close to the people's heart, particularly the rural poor of which many are Malays.

"Issues like the cost of living, housing and others. We need to give confidence to the Malays that in the era of 'Malaysia Baru', they still have a future and the (Federal) Constitution will still be defended," he said.

Economic woes of the rural Malays

However, there are already murmurs of discontent against Harapan among rural Malays as the steep decline in commodity prices has hurt them.

Pagoh Umno committee member Hanafi Md Taib said he had been taking heat from local rubber tappers and oil palm smallholders, many of whom are Malays.

According to Malaysian Palm Oil Board's fresh fruit bunch reference price for the southern region, Grade A oil palm fruit now sold for RM411 per tonne on Dec 27.

A day before the May 9 general election, the price was RM509 per tonne.

Likewise, according to the Malaysian Rubber Board, a kilogramme of SMR20 rubber now sells for RM5.26. A day before the general election, it was going for RM5.59.

Amid debt woes, the Finance Ministry in its Budget 2019 announcement had omitted various aid to rural planters but have since reinstated them after intense lobbying, particularly from Bersatu and PKR.

"The government's response has been weak. They don't have the experience or expertise to handle the situation.

“How could we as Harapan supporters face the kampung folks? They are relying on palm oil and rubber to support their cost of living." said Hanafi.

"If the 15th general election is held today, at current commodity prices, Harapan is 100 percent guaranteed to lose," he said.

As Pakatan Harapan. and more specifically Bersatu, face the double whammy of the opposition pandering to conservative forces and the economic woes of the rural Malays, expect delegates to vent their frustrations at the Bersatu annual general assembly in Putrajaya which begins today. - Mkini