PH victory in Camerons a foregone conclusion, say analysts

C Sivarraajh (centre) will have a tough time in Cameron Highlands because he no longer enjoys the advantage of a mighty BN machinery, say analysts. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA: Analysts say a Pakatan Harapan victory in the upcoming Cameron Highlands by-election is a foregone conclusion, saying there is no chance for MIC to retain the seat it won in the May polls.

This followed activist Shariffa Sabrina Syed Akil’s warning to PH to take action against logging activities in Orang Asli areas in the highlands or risk losing the seat.

But analyst Azmi Hassan from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the votes from PAS, which is staying out of the contest this time, would be a key factor, and not the Orang Asli votes.

In the May polls, the PAS candidate got over 3,000 votes.

“Only if PAS throws full support to the BN or MIC candidate will PH see a tough fight and maybe they will lose bigger than a 597-vote margin.

“Yes, no doubt that BN is nearly non-existent and Umno has its own problems to deal with but the same can be said for PH and its internal squabbles,” Azmi told FMT.

He said it was an “uphill task” for any MIC candidate, including C Sivarraajh who won the seat for BN, because they no longer enjoy the might of the BN machinery.

“It will be interesting to see whether the Cameron Highlands by-election results will be a manifestation of the seriousness of Umno and PH’s internal bickering.”

Sivarraajh won the seat with 10,307 votes, 597 votes more than his closest rival from DAP, M Manogaran, who polled 9,710 votes.

Last month, the Election Court revoked BN’s victory there after vote-buying had taken place during the campaign period.

Sivarraajh did not appeal the decision within the stipulated 14-day appeal period, leading to the Election Commission calling for a by-election on Jan 26.

Sivarraajh will most likely contest the seat again.

Other analysts cite the lack of resources for MIC in predicting the party’s defeat.

“I think PH will win as they can move massive resources into a by-election. MIC may not be able to match the resources of PH since they are no longer the government,” said James Chin from the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute.

But Kamarul Zaman Yusoff said most of the votes for PAS could go to MIC as “PAS members are known to be loyal to their leaders”.

He said what may change the outcome of the by-election is loyalty of BN component parties, especially from Umno, in the wake of an exodus of its leaders.

“We cannot discount (that) the dynamics of internal politicking within PH might not make it a smooth sail for PH there, as some within PH might not like the idea of DAP wresting that seat, making DAP stronger in the Parliament.

“Either they (PAS) will vote for BN, will spoil their votes or not vote at all.”

Faisal Hazis of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia disagreed.

He said there was little chance that PAS votes would go to BN as PAS supporters might “refrain” themselves from voting.

“PAS is not contesting there. Although the members and supporters are asked to vote for the opposition, they might not be enticed to vote for them.”

“But at the end of the day, it depends on the turnout as well because PH garners a lot of support from non-Malays, and Cameron Highlands has a significant number of non-Malay voters.” - FMT