US Halves Troop Strength In Afghanistan, Iran To Fill Vacuum.

The Middle East is getting more screwed up than ever.  

Iran has now made it policy to actively interfere in Afghanistan - something they have not done before. 

This changes the equation completely.  

Shiah Iran will undoubtedly be at loggerheads with Sunni majority Pakistan which 'claims' influence over Afghanistan. 

Shiah Iran will certainly find an ally in India - Pakistan's main imaginary enemy.

Hindu India also has serious interests in Afghanistan and Balochistan which is in Pakistan. 

The land known as India stretched from Myanmar all the way to Iran. Large parts of Afghanistan were part of Indian Empires including the nineteenth century Sikh Maharajas. The famous Hindu Kush mountains are not located in India or Pakistan but inside  Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is like Jalan Sultan Ismail which connects vital parts of Kuala Lumpur. From Iran to India and beyond you have to cut through Afghanistan. From Central Asia to Iran and India you have to cut through Afghanistan. The mountains in the north and the deserts in the south, west and east have made Afghanistan an alternative route. 

The history of this part of the world is very complex. Everything that can possibly divide the human race - from paganism to Buddhism to Islam, tribalism, to blood feuds and all sorts of  other wild and wonderful things - are found in Afghanistan. 

Its such a wonderful place to pick a fight.  If you like to pick a fight with your neighbour, this is where you want to be. 

The Taliban is back in Afghanistan. Actually they never left. Two days ago they blew up some government office in Kabul and killed  43 people.  Here is the New York Times :

December 26, 2018

The New York Times

Militants Storm Afghan Offices In Kabul, Killing Dozens

Militants storm govt offices in Kabul,  Mon after setting off car bomb

43 killed. attack lasted five hours 

Kabul subject to deadly assaults by militants opposed to US 

< week after Trump instructed Pentagon to withdraw half US forces in Afghan

abrupt shift in policy that caught Afghan officials by surprise

OSTB : There are 14,000 US troops hiding inside "fire bases" across Afghanistan. During the day they venture out in their armoured vehicles.  They have to return to base by nightfall because the Taliban controls the country side at night.  This has been going on for 17 years.  Now Trump has ordered a fifty percent force reduction in Afghanistan. Just a few days ago Trump announced a complete pullout of 2000 US troops from Syria. 

Even 14,000 US troops was too small a number for any effective presence in a country like Afghanistan. Now that troop strength is being cut by half. They will soon have to stay indoors  24/7.   

This will embolden the Taliban to mount full frontal attacks against US bases. This has happened before. Recall a place called Vietnam? When that happens the US troops will pack up and leave. This has also happened before. Recall Beirut 1982. 

And here is 'lagi teruk' news. Iran is now seriously meddling in Afghanistan.

Iran met  Afghan Taliban, top Iranian security official said 

according to Tasnim news agency

days after Taliban attended reconciliation talks in UAE

• Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced  
• several Iranian agencies reported
• Afghan govt informed of talks with Taliban, process will continue 

OSTB : Iran is simply telling the Afghan government that 'We are now in the picture. The Taliban and us are now BFFs. You want to talk to the Taliban  you must deal with me first."

first time talks confirmed between Iran and Taliban

reconciliation talks last week between US, Taliban in UAE 

Taliban met with UAE, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia

but they refused to meet delegation from Afghanistan

OSTB :  Because Iran has told them NOT to meet with Afghan government. If the Afghan government wants to talk to the Taliban they must go through Iran. Money and guns talk loudest.

renewed diplomatic efforts seek a way out of 17-year conflict

Iran and Afghanistan share 600-mile border

complex relationship in recent years

Tehran supports Shia Hazara minority in Afghanistan

Hazara violently persecuted byTaliban in 1990s

• in 2001 Iran worked alongside US, West to drive out Taliban 
• now Iran established ties with Taliban to drive out US 

Tehran welcomed withdrawal of all US forces from Syria

Taliban made significant territorial gains 

fighters inflict record casualties on govt forces

OSTB :   So now they will have Pakistan, India and Iran meddling in Afghanistan. There will be endless war.

There is a bright side. Afghanistan has become the world's largest producer of poppy seeds from which the drug morphine is made. Poppy seeds or kas kas are also used in Indian cooking. So I should have quite an endless supply for my beriyani. 

On the serious side, the Taliban was created by Pakistan. Specifically by the late Benazir Bhutto through the Pakistani ISI or Inter Services Intelligence.

I have always wondered why?  Why did Benazir Bhutto 'sanction' the Taliban? 

Pakistan faces a continuous threat of breaking up  through racial hatred and violence. The majority Punjabis - Gobind Singh Deo's gang  - who dominate Pakistani politics have never been liked by the Pashtuns, the Sindhis, the Balochis and other races that populate Pakistan.

Here is the problem - about  15% of Pakistanis are Pashtuns.  That is about 37 million people. That is a huge number of Pashtuns anywhere in the world.  

Over in Afghanistan about  40% of their population are Pashtuns. But that is only about 15 million people.  So although Afghanistan is recognised as the only  Pashtun dominant country in the world, the much larger number of Pashtuns live inside Pakistan - more than twice the number in Afghanistan.

If someone says 'Let all the Pashtuns unite'  it could mean serious trouble for Pakistan. Pakistan's 37 million Pashtuns may break away and team up with Afghanistan. Kandahar in Afghanistan is the undisputed cultural capital of all Pashtun people. 

There is another group in Pakistan called the Balochis. Good engineering stock - who run the oil rigs in the Middle East. There are about seven million Baloch in Pakistan. There are another two million each in Afghanistan and Iran.  The Baloch claim a presence from western Pakistan, southern Afghanistan and into Iran. 

Again if someone says 'Let all the Baloch unite'  it could also mean serious problems for Pakistan. Balochistan could break away from Pakistan.  In fact this is a real possibility.  Until recently there was a civil war going on between the Pakistani Army and the people of Balochistan.  

So Pakistan faces real racial threats that can cause the country to break up. Especially if there is a resurgent Pushtun led Afghanistan pushing a Pushtun racial identity.

To erase the threat of this Pushtun racial identity INSIDE AFGHANISTAN, the late Benazir Bhutto and the ISI created the Taliban   - which claimed to forego racial identity for an Islamic identity.   

The Islamic Taliban is a weapon created  by Pakistan to erase Pushtun and perhaps Baloch racial identities inside Afghanistan. 

Has it worked? No. The Afghan Taliban is Pushtun dominated. 

Worse there is now a Pakistani Taliban that is also Pushtun dominated.

It is now an Islamic Pushtun Taliban - a racial and religious identity.

This is the worst combination.

Now Iran will take sides with the Taliban inside Afghanistan and by extension with the Pakistani Taliban as well. So will India. More rock and roll.