Common cause will give BN-PN reason to keep going, says analyst

 The two coalitions are likely to stick together, even if not completely compatible, if they have more to gain from an alliance than in competition.

Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional formed an informal alliance with an understanding not to compete against each other for the Negeri Sembilan election on Aug 1.

PETALING JAYA:

Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional may be able to stick together, even if not completely compatible, if they have more to gain from an alliance than in rivalry, according to a political analyst.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said history has shown that a pact forged on short-term interests could withstand pressure, but cracks would appear when interests are not aligned.

The next general election would be the real test for the BN-PN “marriage of necessity”, he said. Having a common enemy could unite the two former rivals but a power struggle would tear them apart. “Then a divorce is not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’.”

Zaharuddin was commenting on a prediction by former DAP leader Ronnie Liu that the BN-PN pact would not last until the next general election. Liu said the informal BN-PN alliance for the recent Negeri Sembilan polls was merely tactical and a temporary marriage of convenience.

Liu said they would split, as both coalitions felt that they were strong enough to compete for more seats, especially since their key component parties, Umno and PAS, largely vie for the same voter base.

The first signs of trouble could already be seen in the troubled seat negotiations for the Melaka polls, Liu said.

However, Zaharuddin said the two coalitions would remain together “despite their imperfect compatibility” if they felt that “joining forces would be more beneficial than going against each other”.

“Politics is the art of survival,” Zaharuddin told FMT.

Zaharuddin said Liu’s remarks raised a fundamental question, namely, whether the alliance was based on compatibility or from a mathematical advantage. “Trouble is, an election boils down to one sensitive matter: seats,” he said.

He said BN and PN came together out of necessity, not because they shared deep political beliefs. In negotiations on seats to be contested, they must now reach agreement on which party will contest a particular constituency, which will make way, and who will lead the campaign, among other matters.

“When two parties lay claim to a constituency, treating it as their ‘right’, cooperation can turn into an internal contest,” he said.

Syaza Shukri.

Another analyst, Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia, said the informal alliance is bound to face its own challenges, including disputes.

Such problems would also surface should BN and PN form the next federal government. “However, until it reaches that level, they will work hard to maintain the cooperation as they realise the benefits of such an alliance,” she said. - FMT