Bersatu and its anchor for the northern Johor assault

The people of Pagoh are not seen as rebellious, with the BN having had an uninterrupted series of electoral victories in the parliamentary constituency.

But talk to the local political veterans, and they will speak of a rebel who had once tried to break Umno's grip on Pagoh.

This rebel was none other than the second longest serving post-Merdeka Johor menteri besar Othman Saat, whose political career was brought to an end by Muhyiddin Yassin, the incumbent Pagoh MP.

Othman had served as Johor menteri besar from 1967 to 1982. He lost the contest for the Pagoh Umno chief to Muhyiddin in 1985 and was subsequently forced into retirement.

Muhyiddin, who was Pagoh MP since 1978, later switched to a state seat within Pagoh and served as Johor menteri besar from 1986 to 1995. He returned as Pagoh MP the same year.

Othman re-emerged following the Umno split of 1988, to lead the Johor chapter of the now defunct Umno splinter party Semangat 46.

Othman, who as an Umno menteri besar, had contested and won a state seat within Pagoh, was set to take on Muhyiddin in Pagoh during the 1990 general election, but did not go through with filing his nomination papers.

The reason for Othman deciding not to contest in Pagoh at the last minute was never known but his opponents would say that Othman foresaw Semangat 46's doom, which was dissolved in 1996.

Almost three decades later, the story of a former Johor menteri besar seeking to overthrow Umno repeats - this time in the form of Muhyiddin and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), of which he is president.

But Muhyiddin's parallels with Othman is not only about their fates, but also their future - the possibility of abandoning the Pagoh parliamentary seat.

This has been played by up forces aligned to Umno, including blogger Ahiruddin Attan, who suggested that Muhyiddin may move to the parliamentary seat of Muar, supposedly due to his weakness in Pagoh.

This was also repeated by Umno's incumbent in Muar Razali Ibrahim, who won the seat in a close fight against PKR's Nor Hizwan Ahmad, with only a 1,646-vote majority.

Muhyiddin had addressed this in a tongue-in-cheek response but had kept his electoral plans close to his chest.

The Muar proposal

However, a local Bersatu leader who spoke on condition of anonymity told Malaysiakini the idea of moving to the seat of Muar was not mere BN propaganda and it had been pitched to Muhyiddin by some in his inner circles.

The district of Muar is made up three parliamentary seats, with the seat of Muar making up the coastal area, Bakri the town and Pagoh the inland.

According to the first quarter electoral roll of 2016, Pagoh has a total of 46,968 registered voters comprising of 66 percent Malays, 30 percent Chinese and four percent Indian.

Muar, on the other hand, has a total of 48,491 registered voters comprising of 63 percent Malays, 35 percent Chinese and one percent Indian.

Bakri, the only Chinese majority seat within the Muar district, was controlled by DAP since 2008.

Under the BN ticket, Muhyiddin won the Pagoh seat by a landslide, with a 12,842-vote majority.

While Muhyiddin, who is relatively popular amongst the local communities in Pagoh, may be able to attract old supporters to his new party, not all who voted for him did so because of who he is, but rather they voted for BN.

Furthermore, having been sacked as deputy prime minister, education minister and Umno deputy president, the fear is that Muhyiddin may not have the resources to attract enough support which, during his Umno days, had been maintained through patronage.

In contrast, Umno only won Muar by a small margin and the seat is also without Felda settlements - a traditional BN bastion - unlike Pagoh, which has over 10,000 Felda settlers.

"Muar is an easy target because of the larger Chinese population and there is no Felda.

"He (Muhyiddin) can also recruit the help of his brother Abdul Aziz Yassin," said the local Bersatu leader, who leads a division in northern Johor. This view is similarly shared by Bersatu's partners in Muar.

"Abdul Aziz still wields strong influence in Muar as he is popular among the older generation," a local DAP leader in Muar told Malaysiakini on condition of anonymity.

Abdul Aziz was the Muar MP and Umno division chief in the 1990s. He had since defected to Bersatu and now serves as a supreme council member.

Those favouring this move acknowledge that a seven-term MP "fleeing" from his seat will not bode well and therefore have proposed that Muhyiddin contest in one of two state seats in Pagoh, namely Jorak, where Bersatu believe it is stronger.

Jorak is presently held by Shahruddin Md Salleh, who had defected from Umno to Bersatu to serve as the latter's secretary-general.

Johor Bersatu sources told Malaysiakini that Shahruddin is expected to be moved to lead the charge in central Johor, thus allowing Muhyiddin to take over.

However, other Bersatu leaders believe Muhyiddin should contest the Jorak state seat while also staying put in the Pagoh parliamentary seat instead of moving to Muar.

Pagoh and the northern front

The rationale is that Muhyiddin, as the Johor Bersatu and Pakatan Harapan chief, has a bigger role to play in the battle for Johor instead of just worrying about his political survival.

Malaysiakini understands, according to state-level and local Bersatu leaders, that almost 20 percent of Bersatu membership in Johor is derived from Pagoh.

Therefore, Muhyiddin switching parliamentary seats will not only demoralise supporters in Pagoh but also in Johor as a whole.

Local Bersatu grassroots are also adamant that Muhyiddin should contest in Pagoh, and one such example is Pagoh Bersatu committee member Hanafi Md Taib.

"Trust me, even if you were to chop off my hand, I will say Muhyiddin will stay and fight in Pagoh... and we are confident we can win," the 43-year-old told Malaysiakini firmly.

People like Hanafi (photo), who has followed Muhyiddin for more than 20 years and is considered his strong man and operative in Panchor, Pagoh, are essential in keeping the political machinery moving.

Already, Pagoh Bersatu has been organising efforts for Muhyiddin's battle in the constituency and an election preparation meeting was held in his presence last month.

Those present at the meeting told Malaysiakini they discussed election strategy for Pagoh with Muhyiddin and the issue of moving to the seat of Muar was never raised.

The meeting had planned for Muhyiddin to boost his presence at Pagoh.

"Before Hari Raya, he (Muhyiddin) only conducted walkabouts once a month, we want to increase that to twice a month," said a source present at the meeting.

Muhyiddin has chosen to keep his opponents guessing on his electoral move but for Bersatu grassroots, Muhyiddin contesting Pagoh is already a given.

While Muhyiddin is expected to face a tough challenge in Pagoh, his chances of winning the state seat of Jorak is brighter.

The state seat will serve as Muhyiddin's back up plan if he loses Pagoh or if Harapan's federal plans do not pan out, allowing him to set his eyes on possibly making a come back as Johor menteri besar if BN loses the state.

In the 2013 general election, DAP's attempt to open a new front in southern Johor succeeded with the party scoring unprecedented gains in the state, scooping up 13 state seats, many within its zone of attack. PAS won four while PKR won one.

Come the 14th general election, Bersatu will seek to open a new front in northern Johor, and the district of Muar, comprising three parliamentary seats and seven state seats, will be a launch pad.

It is, therefore, no surprise that Bersatu will be celebrating its anniversary in the district tomorrow.

Muhyiddin, together with Bersatu chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad and party supporters, will descend on Dewan Y Square Connexion in Bakri, marking milestones the party had achieved in just one year since its founding.

-Mkini