Mahathir's legacy - a Greater Pribumi?

GE-14 in 2014 may have many surprises.

But it will have two possible, nay, probable outcomes wakakaka, which doesn't require a rocket scientist to work that out.

Mind, one could be infinitely stubborn by forecasting a third (3rd), that of a 'hung-parliament', wakakaka again, but for convenient sake, let us ignore this rather unlikely though faintly possible third outcome.

Of the two most probable outcomes of GE-14, one will be that BN wins a majority of federal seats whence then the status quo will continue plus or minus some seats here and there.

Najib reigns supreme as PM for another term of 5 years, and Mahathir may call for UN intervention to arrest Najib, wakakaka a third time and more loudly.

The other probable outcome of GE-14 may be that Pakatan Harapan wins with the following notional breakdown of federal seats won by the component parties - let's assume total parliamentary seats remain at 222 with the same number of federal seats in each state for simplicity sake, thus the majority to rule will have to be at least 112:

DAP - 45
Pribumi - 22
PKR - 35
Amanah - 10

Total - 112 representing majority rule, with Mahathir as PM.

Dirgahayu Ayah 

Meanwhile, breakdown of BN wins:

UMNO (including Sabah UMNO) - 68
MCA - 2
Gerakan - 1
MIC- 2
Sarawak BN parties - 25
Sabah BN parties (other than UMNO) - 10

Total - 108 with Najib told to leave UMNO, either to be imprisoned or go into exile, wakakaka.

PAS - 2 (wakakaka).

But with a Mahathir-led PH government, this is where the surprises may occur in that the new PM may decide on two possible sub-options when in rule in 2018, to wit:

Sub-option A - PM Mahathir and his Pribumi DOMINATES in an "inner core" bumiputera alliance together with the major part of PKR and bumiputera Amanah to tell the DAP to STFU.

Thus the outcome may be another de jure (note, NOT de facto) Mahathir government under the "inner core" alliance of bumiputeras consisting of Pribumi, PKR and Amanah [Mahathir's 77 thumps the DAP's 45].

Dirgahayu Melayu dan Ayah Mahathir.

If DAP merajuk and leaves the ruling coalition to be an independent non-aligned political party, then it will be back to its 1972-3 status when it refused to join Tun Razak's newly formed Barison Nasional (BN). What may happen next will be irrelevant to the Rocket Party, but the next sub-option may provide glimpses of possibilities.

Sub-option B - Mahathir forms a completely newer (wakakaka) alliance, uniting his Pribumi (25) with his UMNO Baru (68) plus Sarawak BN parties (25) plus some of PKR including Azmin Ali (say, 20 out of 35) = total of 138 to form a Greater Pribumi tulin coalition to rule.

If it wants to have a 2/3 majority of 148 in federal parliament it will require another 10 seats.

But the new new opposition will be the dumped-by-Mahathir's DAP (45) plus the remaining PKR including the Anwar family (15) plus Amanah (10) = total of 70.

There will always be 'Others', wakakaka, of PAS (2) plus MCA (2) plus Gerakan (1) plus MIC (2) plus Sabah (10 non-UMNO) = 17.

Incidentally PAS and the Sabah parties can provide Mahathir with the 12 to attain 2/3 majority in parliament, wakakaka.

Thus Mahathir's new newest ruling coalition, namely Greater Pribumi, will rule with 134 majority in federal parliament.

His Majesty's 'loyal opposition' (wakakaka) will be Sabah parties, PAS, 45 DAP, Amanah, a faction of pro-Anwar PKR plus MCA/Gerakan/MIC.

RPK in Malaysia-Today narrated another couple of scenarios, that of a minority government as follows:

Let us say Barisan Nasional wins 110 seats in Parliament while DAP wins 50 seats, PKR 40, PPBM 10 and PAN 12. The total for DAP, PKR, PPBM and PAN may be 112 parliament seats but Pakatan Harapan is not legally registered so they cannot claim that Pakatan Harapan won 112 seats versus only 110 for Barisan Nasional. It will be 110 Barisan Nasional seats versus 50 seats for DAP, 40 for PKR, 10 for PPBM and 12 for PAN.

Even if Barisan Nasional wins 111 seats it will be 111 versus four other parties totalling 111 seats and not 111 for Barisan Nasional versus 111 for Pakatan Harapan. So, with 111 seats, Barisan Nasional gets to form the government since DAP has only 50 seats, PKR 40, PPBM 10 and PAN 11.

What RPK has said in his 1st paragraph above is that HM the Agong may be persuaded that an unregistered PH with its non-united multiple parties, will not be a stable enough political coalition, nay, 'combination' (NOT 'coalition') to command his royal confidence that it can form a workable federal government. HM then may look towards the BN with only 110 seats to form a 'more stable' minority government.

That will be doable as it has happened overseas in other nations with Westminster parliamentary system, though it will be difficult going for the minority government. However, with Malaysia's Gurun-ised DNA, that difficulty won't be for long, wakakaka.

RPK's 2nd paragraph above is a variation of his 1st paragraph (and my 3rd faint outcome - see top, wakakaka), that of a 'hung parliament' but where HM will again be persuaded that an unregistered PH won't be stable enough.

But leaving RPK's scenarios aside for now, the Greater Pribumi coalition of bumiputeras-only under Emperor Mahafiraun and Crown Prince Mukhriz will govern Malaysia even without the Islamic parties of PAS and Amanah. The last may prove to be 'attractive' to some non-Muslim MPs who may be allowed to join Greater Pribumi as 'associates', wakakaka.

Mahathir may not even be with us for long but he will institute 'structures' and again, with 2/3 majority in parliament with the 'help' of PAS and the Sabah non-UMNO parties, amend the Constitution to concretise his 'structures' as well as kowtim-rise DAP, the Anwar-faction of PKR and, possibly as quid pro quo for PAS' 'help', Amanah.

That will be his Legacy for his Pribumi.

The Anwar-family will be given the option of going into exile or face further incarceration.

Meanwhile, Lim Kit Siang will be expelled from DAP for his rancid Hokkien Mee and detested by non-Malay Malaysians forevermore. That will be his sad swansong.

but .. but ... but ... kaytee, you forgot me

wakakaka